PHI · 2026 season

Joel Embiid

45 games played, 7 in the postseason · averaging 26.4 points. Each row is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 26.5 · POINTS · 2019–2026

HIT RATE63.8%234 of 367 games

INTERVAL58.7%–68.5%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN-176at that rate

AT THE FLOOR-143if the rate is 58.7%

Joel has cleared 26.5 points in 63.8% of 367 games since 2019, and in 30.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs -176 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-05-10PLAYOFF R2 G4

HOME

27.6MIN

24POINTS

5 · 4 · 8-8

BELOW

FG: 8-8
3PT: 2-2
FT: 6-7
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 108.3
USG%: 22.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: -24
PRA: 33

2026-05-08PLAYOFF R2 G3

HOME

34.8MIN

18POINTS

6 · 5 · 7-17

BELOW

FG: 7-17
3PT: 0-4
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 45.8
USG%: 30.6
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: -9
PRA: 29

2026-05-04PLAYOFF R2 G1

AWAY

24.5MIN

14POINTS

4 · 1 · 3-11

BELOW

FG: 3-11
3PT: 0-2
FT: 8-9
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 46.8
USG%: 29.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -24
PRA: 19

2026-05-02PLAYOFF R1 G7

BOS

AWAY

39.1MIN

34POINTS

12 · 6 · 12-26

ABOVE

FG: 12-26
3PT: 1-4
FT: 9-11
OREB/DREB: 2/10
TS%: 55.1
USG%: 38.6
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +11
PRA: 52

2026-04-30PLAYOFF R1 G6

BOS

HOME

34.2MIN

19POINTS

10 · 8 · 6-18

BELOW

FG: 6-18
3PT: 1-5
FT: 6-7
OREB/DREB: 1/9
TS%: 45.1
USG%: 28.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +7
PRA: 37

2026-04-28PLAYOFF R1 G5

BOS

AWAY

38.9MIN

33POINTS

4 · 8 · 12-23

ABOVE

FG: 12-23
3PT: 0-5
FT: 9-10
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 60.2
USG%: 38.6
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: +13
PRA: 45

2026-04-26PLAYOFF R1 G4

BOS

HOME

34.1MIN

26POINTS

10 · 6 · 9-21

BELOW

FG: 9-21
3PT: 1-6
FT: 7-9
OREB/DREB: 2/8
TS%: 52.1
USG%: 40.0
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: -25
PRA: 42

2026-04-06

AWAY

39.2MIN

34POINTS

12 · 1 · 8-19

ABOVE

FG: 8-19
3PT: 2-6
FT: 16-19
OREB/DREB: 5/7
TS%: 62.1
USG%: 34.1
STL: 0
BLK: 4
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: -7
PRA: 47

2026-04-03

MIN

HOME

34.5MIN

19POINTS

13 · 7 · 6-17

BELOW

FG: 6-17
3PT: 1-6
FT: 6-7
OREB/DREB: 2/11
TS%: 47.3
USG%: 26.9
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +15
PRA: 39

2026-03-30

MIA

AWAY

34.1MIN

26POINTS

7 · 3 · 10-25

BELOW

FG: 10-25
3PT: 2-6
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 47.8
USG%: 37.5
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: -18
PRA: 36

2026-03-28

CHA

AWAY

35.8MIN

29POINTS

6 · 2 · 8-19

ABOVE

FG: 8-19
3PT: 3-6
FT: 10-13
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 58.7
USG%: 31.9
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +5
PRA: 37

2026-03-25

CHI

HOME

28.1MIN

35POINTS

6 · 7 · 12-17

ABOVE

FG: 12-17
3PT: 3-3
FT: 8-9
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 83.5
USG%: 33.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +33
PRA: 48

2026-02-26

MIA

HOME

31.2MIN

26POINTS

11 · 4 · 8-20

BELOW

FG: 8-20
3PT: 2-6
FT: 8-9
OREB/DREB: 1/10
TS%: 54.3
USG%: 34.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: 0
PRA: 41

2026-02-24

IND

AWAY

26.3MIN

27POINTS

6 · 5 · 11-17

ABOVE

FG: 11-17
3PT: 1-4
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 70.3
USG%: 36.5
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: -1
PRA: 38

2026-02-07

PHX

AWAY

33.0MIN

33POINTS

9 · 3 · 9-19

ABOVE

FG: 9-19
3PT: 4-7
FT: 11-13
OREB/DREB: 1/8
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 36.7
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -10
PRA: 45

2026-02-05

LAL

AWAY

38.6MIN

35POINTS

7 · 7 · 13-19

ABOVE

FG: 13-19
3PT: 1-2
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 77.7
USG%: 29.4
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +7
PRA: 49

2026-02-02

LAC

AWAY

32.2MIN

24POINTS

5 · 3 · 8-19

BELOW

FG: 8-19
3PT: 1-2
FT: 7-7
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 54.3
USG%: 31.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +2
PRA: 32

2026-01-31

HOME

39.0MIN

40POINTS

11 · 4 · 13-27

ABOVE

FG: 13-27
3PT: 3-5
FT: 11-14
OREB/DREB: 4/7
TS%: 60.3
USG%: 41.5
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 5
PF: 2
+/−: +16
PRA: 55

2026-01-29

SAC

HOME

35.9MIN

37POINTS

5 · 8 · 13-21

ABOVE

FG: 13-21
3PT: 1-2
FT: 10-13
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 69.2
USG%: 40.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +9
PRA: 50

2026-01-27

MIL

HOME

29.1MIN

29POINTS

9 · 5 · 11-24

ABOVE

FG: 11-24
3PT: 1-4
FT: 6-6
OREB/DREB: 6/3
TS%: 54.4
USG%: 41.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +6
PRA: 43

2026-01-24

HOME

36.4MIN

38POINTS

11 · 5 · 13-21

ABOVE

FG: 13-21
3PT: 3-5
FT: 9-12
OREB/DREB: 3/8
TS%: 72.3
USG%: 38.9
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: -3
PRA: 54

2026-01-22

HOU

HOME

45.6MIN

32POINTS

15 · 10 · 10-19

ABOVE

FG: 10-19
3PT: 1-3
FT: 11-12
OREB/DREB: 3/12
TS%: 65.9
USG%: 29.9
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 5
PF: 1
+/−: +21
PRA: 57

2026-01-19

IND

HOME

33.3MIN

30POINTS

9 · 4 · 10-17

ABOVE

FG: 10-17
3PT: 1-1
FT: 9-10
OREB/DREB: 2/7
TS%: 70.1
USG%: 28.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +3
PRA: 43

2026-01-16

CLE

HOME

33.1MIN

33POINTS

5 · 3 · 10-22

ABOVE

FG: 10-22
3PT: 2-3
FT: 11-12
OREB/DREB: 3/2
TS%: 60.5
USG%: 37.5
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: +9
PRA: 41

2026-01-14

CLE

HOME

25.0MIN

20POINTS

4 · 3 · 7-14

BELOW

FG: 7-14
3PT: 2-5
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 63.5
USG%: 37.2
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 6
PF: 0
+/−: -18
PRA: 27

2026-01-12

TOR

AWAY

35.7MIN

27POINTS

8 · 4 · 9-17

ABOVE

FG: 9-17
3PT: 1-6
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 65.8
USG%: 37.0
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 7
PF: 1
+/−: +12
PRA: 39

2026-01-09

ORL

AWAY

31.4MIN

22POINTS

9 · 3 · 7-17

BELOW

FG: 7-17
3PT: 0-3
FT: 8-9
OREB/DREB: 3/6
TS%: 52.5
USG%: 32.5
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: +4
PRA: 34

2026-01-07

WAS

HOME

25.4MIN

28POINTS

7 · 2 · 10-14

ABOVE

FG: 10-14
3PT: 1-2
FT: 7-8
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 79.9
USG%: 34.2
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +27
PRA: 37

2026-01-05

DEN

HOME

40.1MIN

32POINTS

10 · 2 · 13-22

ABOVE

FG: 13-22
3PT: 1-4
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 6/4
TS%: 66.1
USG%: 33.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 6
PF: 2
+/−: +8
PRA: 44

2026-01-03

AWAY

33.1MIN

26POINTS

10 · 5 · 9-15

BELOW

FG: 9-15
3PT: 0-1
FT: 8-12
OREB/DREB: 2/8
TS%: 64.1
USG%: 29.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: +9
PRA: 41

2026-01-01

DAL

AWAY

35.3MIN

22POINTS

4 · 6 · 9-18

BELOW

FG: 9-18
3PT: 0-3
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 54.5
USG%: 27.9
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +9
PRA: 32

2025-12-30

MEM

AWAY

38.1MIN

34POINTS

10 · 8 · 11-28

ABOVE

FG: 11-28
3PT: 1-6
FT: 11-12
OREB/DREB: 5/5
TS%: 51.1
USG%: 39.6
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 4
PF: 5
+/−: -5
PRA: 52

2025-12-26

CHI

AWAY

32.2MIN

31POINTS

5 · 1 · 10-19

ABOVE

FG: 10-19
3PT: 2-4
FT: 9-9
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 67.5
USG%: 33.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +2
PRA: 37

2025-12-23

BKN

HOME

31.5MIN

27POINTS

6 · 4 · 8-13

ABOVE

FG: 8-13
3PT: 1-1
FT: 10-12
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 73.9
USG%: 28.5
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: +1
PRA: 37

2025-12-14

ATL

AWAY

30.2MIN

22POINTS

14 · 1 · 8-20

BELOW

FG: 8-20
3PT: 1-3
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 6/8
TS%: 48.6
USG%: 32.7
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: -8
PRA: 37

2025-12-12

IND

HOME

31.9MIN

39POINTS

9 · 3 · 12-23

ABOVE

FG: 12-23
3PT: 2-8
FT: 13-18
OREB/DREB: 2/7
TS%: 63.1
USG%: 46.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: +16
PRA: 51

2025-12-07

LAL

HOME

30.3MIN

16POINTS

7 · 2 · 4-21

BELOW

FG: 4-21
3PT: 0-6
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 2/5
TS%: 32.6
USG%: 32.5
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +11
PRA: 25

2025-12-04

HOME

25.2MIN

12POINTS

6 · 3 · 5-13

BELOW

FG: 5-13
3PT: 0-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 43.2
USG%: 29.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: +2
PRA: 21

2025-11-30

ATL

HOME

30.0MIN

18POINTS

4 · 2 · 6-14

BELOW

FG: 6-14
3PT: 0-3
FT: 6-8
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 51.4
USG%: 27.0
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -11
PRA: 24

2025-11-08

TOR

HOME

26.0MIN

29POINTS

6 · 4 · 10-16

ABOVE

FG: 10-16
3PT: 1-4
FT: 8-9
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 72.6
USG%: 33.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +15
PRA: 39

2025-11-04

CHI

AWAY

25.6MIN

20POINTS

6 · 2 · 7-21

BELOW

FG: 7-21
3PT: 1-6
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 42.3
USG%: 41.5
STL: 3
BLK: 4
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +1
PRA: 28

2025-10-31

BOS

HOME

25.1MIN

20POINTS

6 · 3 · 6-13

BELOW

FG: 6-13
3PT: 1-2
FT: 7-7
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 62.2
USG%: 35.3
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: +2
PRA: 29

2025-10-28

WAS

AWAY

23.0MIN

25POINTS

7 · 5 · 9-17

BELOW

FG: 9-17
3PT: 3-6
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 3/4
TS%: 63.6
USG%: 40.0
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: +9
PRA: 37

2025-10-25

CHA

HOME

20.1MIN

20POINTS

2 · 4 · 7-11

BELOW

FG: 7-11
3PT: 3-6
FT: 3-5
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 75.8
USG%: 35.4
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 0
+/−: -2
PRA: 26

2025-10-22

BOS

AWAY

20.3MIN

4POINTS

6 · 2 · 1-9

BELOW

FG: 1-9
3PT: 0-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 20.2
USG%: 20.8
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -16
PRA: 12

every game on file — nothing hidden