NYK · C-F · 2026 season

Karl-Anthony Towns

Next game: vs CLE, Thu 00:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 18:02 UTC · lines as of 17:36 UTC

Projected 32.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 20.5 · Over -116 / Under -113 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 20.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 21, 29, 17, 11, 22, 19, 27, 22, 22, 19); last 3 average 22.3.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.671 points per minute projects 21.5, +5% against the 20.5 line.
To centers, CLE have allowed 24.9 points a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 25 vs 16.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 6 and 24 vs 18.4 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 18 vs 26.6 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean -0.7 points against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 12.5 · Over -127 / Under -105 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 12.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 16, 13, 12, 16, 12, 13, 20, 14, 10, 12); season average 13.8, last 3 average 13.7.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.443 rebounds per minute projects 14.2, +13% against the 12.5 line.
CLE have allowed 46.4 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 7th-most of 30; to centers, 18.3 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 13 vs 8.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 7 and 7 vs 9.9 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 5 vs 10.2 in his other games (Oct 28); mean -1.5 rebounds against their own averages over 4 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 2.5 · Over -169 / Under +126 · 12 books

Case for the over

Over 2.5 in 8 of 10 games this season (newest first: 3, 3, 1, 5, 3, 5, 3, 4, 3, 1); season average 3.1.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.100 assists per minute projects 3.2, +27% against the 2.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 59% (12 books at 2.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 2.3 assists, below the 2.5 line. a hint, not a finding
He has assisted on 12.1% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, down from 17.1% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
CLE allow 44.4% shooting from the field, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 4 vs 1.9 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 1 and 1 vs 4.5 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 3 vs 1.8 in his other games (Oct 28); mean -0.9 assists against their own averages over 4 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over +107 / Under -144 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 3, 1, 0, 2, 3); season average 1.9, last 3 average 2.0.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.061 threes per minute projects 2.0, +30% against the 1.5 line.
CLE have allowed 14.2 threes made a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30; to centers, 2.4 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CLE allow 40.0 three-point attempts a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 4 vs 2.3 in his other games (Nov 9); Anthony Davis (WAS) 2 vs 0.9 in his other games (Oct 28); Julius Randle (BKN) 2 vs 1.4 in his other games (Oct 24); mean +1.1 threes made against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

After removing the vig, the books price the under at 55% (14 books at 1.5).

Pts+Reb+Ast 36.5 · Over -125 / Under -109 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 36.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 40, 45, 30, 32, 37, 37, 50, 40, 35, 32); season average 37.8, last 3 average 38.3.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 1.214 PRA per minute projects 38.8, +6% against the 36.5 line.
To centers, CLE have allowed 47.3 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 42 vs 26.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 14 and 32 vs 32.8 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 26 vs 38.6 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean -2.8 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 33.5 · Over -120 / Under -114 · 9 books

Case for the over

He averages 34.7 points + rebounds over 10 games, above the 33.5 line.
His last 3 games average 36.0 points + rebounds, above the 33.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 1.114 PR per minute projects 35.7, +6% against the 33.5 line.
CLE have allowed 161.4 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30; to centers, 43.2 a game, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 38 vs 24.7 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 13 and 31 vs 28.2 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 23 vs 36.9 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean -2.1 points + rebounds against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 23.5 · Over -123 / Under -110 · 7 books

Case for the over

Over 23.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 24, 32, 18, 16, 25, 24, 30, 26, 25, 20); last 3 average 24.7.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.771 PA per minute projects 24.7, +5% against the 23.5 line.
To centers, CLE have allowed 29.0 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 29 vs 18.5 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 7 and 25 vs 22.9 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 21 vs 28.4 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean -1.5 points + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 15.5 · Over -130 / Under -101 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 15.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 19, 16, 13, 21, 15, 18, 23, 18, 13, 13); season average 16.9, last 3 average 16.0.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.543 RA per minute projects 17.4, +12% against the 15.5 line.
CLE have allowed 72.5 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30; to centers, 22.4 a game, the 2nd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 17 vs 10.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 8 and 8 vs 14.4 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 8 vs 12.0 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean -2.1 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -195 / Under +135 · 3 books

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1); season average 0.8, last 3 average 1.7.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.026 steals per minute projects 0.8, +64% against the 0.5 line.
To centers, CLE have allowed 1.8 steals a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 61% (3 books at 0.5).

Case for the under

CLE have allowed 7.1 steals a game over 11 games, the 6th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CLE commit 13.2 turnovers a game, the 4th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 1 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 0 and 0 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 1 vs 1.4 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean -0.5 steals against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 0.5 · Over -114 / Under -118 · 1 book

Case for the over

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 0 vs 0.5 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 2 and 0 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 2 vs 0.9 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean +0.2 blocks against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 2); last 3 average 0.3.
CLE have allowed 3.8 blocks a game over 11 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

10 games played · averaging 20.9 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 20.5 · POINTS · 2019–2026

HIT RATE62.2%286 of 460 games

INTERVAL57.7%–66.5%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN-165at that rate

AT THE FLOOR-137if the rate is 57.7%

Karl-Anthony has cleared 20.5 points in 62.2% of 460 games since 2019, and in 60.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs -165 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-10

MIL

HOME

27.3MIN

21POINTS

16 · 3 · 5-14

ABOVE

FG: 5-14
3PT: 2-9
FT: 9-14
OREB/DREB: 3/13
TS%: 52.1
USG%: 37.1
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: +21
PRA: 40

2026-11-07

CLE

AWAY

34.0MIN

29POINTS

13 · 3 · 11-21

ABOVE

FG: 11-21
3PT: 2-4
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 5/8
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 30.0
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +2
PRA: 45

2026-11-04

CHI

HOME

25.2MIN

17POINTS

12 · 1 · 5-5

BELOW

FG: 5-5
3PT: 2-2
FT: 5-7
OREB/DREB: 2/10
TS%: 105.2
USG%: 14.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +34
PRA: 30

2026-11-02

BKN

HOME

34.6MIN

11POINTS

16 · 5 · 4-11

BELOW

FG: 4-11
3PT: 1-4
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 1/15
TS%: 44.6
USG%: 22.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: +13
PRA: 32

2026-10-30

PHI

AWAY

35.2MIN

22POINTS

12 · 3 · 8-15

ABOVE

FG: 8-15
3PT: 3-7
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/12
TS%: 67.4
USG%: 23.8
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: +2
PRA: 37

2026-10-28

CHI

AWAY

28.4MIN

19POINTS

13 · 5 · 7-14

BELOW

FG: 7-14
3PT: 3-6
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 3/10
TS%: 63.8
USG%: 25.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 5
+/−: +5
PRA: 37

2026-10-27

DET

HOME

32.5MIN

27POINTS

20 · 3 · 12-21

ABOVE

FG: 12-21
3PT: 1-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 8/12
TS%: 61.7
USG%: 36.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 7
PF: 5
+/−: -3
PRA: 50

2026-10-25

ORL

HOME

33.3MIN

22POINTS

14 · 4 · 8-15

ABOVE

FG: 8-15
3PT: 0-4
FT: 6-7
OREB/DREB: 5/9
TS%: 60.8
USG%: 27.1
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: -1
PRA: 40

2026-10-23

BOS

AWAY

37.3MIN

22POINTS

10 · 3 · 9-13

ABOVE

FG: 9-13
3PT: 2-3
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 3/7
TS%: 76.8
USG%: 22.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 5
+/−: +2
PRA: 35

2026-10-20

PHI

HOME

23.6MIN

19POINTS

12 · 1 · 6-9

BELOW

FG: 6-9
3PT: 3-4
FT: 4-7
OREB/DREB: 3/9
TS%: 78.6
USG%: 27.3
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 4
PF: 4
+/−: 0
PRA: 32

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: vs CLE, Thu 00:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 18:02 UTC · lines as of 17:36 UTC

Projected 32.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 20.5 · Over -116 / Under -113 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 20.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 21, 29, 17, 11, 22, 19, 27, 22, 22, 19); last 3 average 22.3.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.671 points per minute projects 21.5, +5% against the 20.5 line.
To centers, CLE have allowed 24.9 points a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 25 vs 16.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 6 and 24 vs 18.4 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 18 vs 26.6 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean -0.7 points against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 12.5 · Over -127 / Under -105 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 12.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 16, 13, 12, 16, 12, 13, 20, 14, 10, 12); season average 13.8, last 3 average 13.7.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.443 rebounds per minute projects 14.2, +13% against the 12.5 line.
CLE have allowed 46.4 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 7th-most of 30; to centers, 18.3 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 13 vs 8.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 7 and 7 vs 9.9 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 5 vs 10.2 in his other games (Oct 28); mean -1.5 rebounds against their own averages over 4 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 2.5 · Over -169 / Under +126 · 12 books

Case for the over

Over 2.5 in 8 of 10 games this season (newest first: 3, 3, 1, 5, 3, 5, 3, 4, 3, 1); season average 3.1.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.100 assists per minute projects 3.2, +27% against the 2.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 59% (12 books at 2.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 2.3 assists, below the 2.5 line. a hint, not a finding
He has assisted on 12.1% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, down from 17.1% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
CLE allow 44.4% shooting from the field, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 4 vs 1.9 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 1 and 1 vs 4.5 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 3 vs 1.8 in his other games (Oct 28); mean -0.9 assists against their own averages over 4 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over +107 / Under -144 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 3, 1, 0, 2, 3); season average 1.9, last 3 average 2.0.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.061 threes per minute projects 2.0, +30% against the 1.5 line.
CLE have allowed 14.2 threes made a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30; to centers, 2.4 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CLE allow 40.0 three-point attempts a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 4 vs 2.3 in his other games (Nov 9); Anthony Davis (WAS) 2 vs 0.9 in his other games (Oct 28); Julius Randle (BKN) 2 vs 1.4 in his other games (Oct 24); mean +1.1 threes made against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

After removing the vig, the books price the under at 55% (14 books at 1.5).

Pts+Reb+Ast 36.5 · Over -125 / Under -109 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 36.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 40, 45, 30, 32, 37, 37, 50, 40, 35, 32); season average 37.8, last 3 average 38.3.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 1.214 PRA per minute projects 38.8, +6% against the 36.5 line.
To centers, CLE have allowed 47.3 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 42 vs 26.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 14 and 32 vs 32.8 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 26 vs 38.6 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean -2.8 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 33.5 · Over -120 / Under -114 · 9 books

Case for the over

He averages 34.7 points + rebounds over 10 games, above the 33.5 line.
His last 3 games average 36.0 points + rebounds, above the 33.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 1.114 PR per minute projects 35.7, +6% against the 33.5 line.
CLE have allowed 161.4 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30; to centers, 43.2 a game, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 38 vs 24.7 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 13 and 31 vs 28.2 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 23 vs 36.9 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean -2.1 points + rebounds against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 23.5 · Over -123 / Under -110 · 7 books

Case for the over

Over 23.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 24, 32, 18, 16, 25, 24, 30, 26, 25, 20); last 3 average 24.7.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.771 PA per minute projects 24.7, +5% against the 23.5 line.
To centers, CLE have allowed 29.0 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 29 vs 18.5 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 7 and 25 vs 22.9 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 21 vs 28.4 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean -1.5 points + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 15.5 · Over -130 / Under -101 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 15.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 19, 16, 13, 21, 15, 18, 23, 18, 13, 13); season average 16.9, last 3 average 16.0.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.543 RA per minute projects 17.4, +12% against the 15.5 line.
CLE have allowed 72.5 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30; to centers, 22.4 a game, the 2nd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 17 vs 10.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 8 and 8 vs 14.4 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 8 vs 12.0 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean -2.1 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -195 / Under +135 · 3 books

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1); season average 0.8, last 3 average 1.7.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 31.1 a game so far; 0.026 steals per minute projects 0.8, +64% against the 0.5 line.
To centers, CLE have allowed 1.8 steals a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 61% (3 books at 0.5).

Case for the under

CLE have allowed 7.1 steals a game over 11 games, the 6th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CLE commit 13.2 turnovers a game, the 4th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 1 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 0 and 0 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 1 vs 1.4 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean -0.5 steals against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 0.5 · Over -114 / Under -118 · 1 book

Case for the over

Role comparables vs CLE (centers; usage 21.6% to 31.6%, 23.1 to 39.1 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Naz Reid (CHA) 0 vs 0.5 in his other games (Nov 9); Joel Embiid (PHI) 2 and 0 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anthony Davis (WAS) 2 vs 0.9 in his other games (Oct 28) and 1 more; mean +0.2 blocks against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 2); last 3 average 0.3.
CLE have allowed 3.8 blocks a game over 11 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.