SAS · F-G · 2026 season

Keldon Johnson

Next game: at CHI, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:36 UTC

Projected 25.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 10.5 · Over -122 / Under -112 · 2 books

Case for the over

CHI have allowed 129.3 points a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to forwards, 62.3 a game, the 6th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (forwards; usage 10.9% to 20.9%, 16.1 to 32.1 min a game, at least 17.0 min in the game): Mikal Bridges (NYK) 7 vs 6.6 in his other games (Nov 4); Sam Hauser (BOS) 6 and 11 vs 8.0 in his other games (Oct 30, Oct 26); Mitchell Robinson (BOS) 11 vs 5.2 in his other games (Oct 30) and 4 more; mean +2.0 points against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 10.5 in 8 of 10 games this season (newest first: 4, 10, 3, 4, 15, 2, 9, 14, 7, 10); season average 7.8, last 3 average 5.7.
Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.1 a game so far; 0.323 points per minute projects 8.1, -23% against the 10.5 line.

Rebounds 5.5 · Over -112 / Under -125 · 2 books

Case for the over

Over 5.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 5, 7, 6, 5, 7, 6, 6, 4, 6, 4); last 3 average 6.0.
Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.1 a game so far; 0.232 rebounds per minute projects 5.8, +5% against the 5.5 line.
CHI have allowed 49.7 rebounds a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to forwards, 27.7 a game, the 2nd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI miss 52.2 shots a game, the 2nd-most of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (forwards; usage 10.9% to 20.9%, 16.1 to 32.1 min a game, at least 17.0 min in the game): Mikal Bridges (NYK) 4 vs 3.8 in his other games (Nov 4); Sam Hauser (BOS) 3 and 4 vs 3.0 in his other games (Oct 30, Oct 26); Mitchell Robinson (BOS) 4 vs 5.8 in his other games (Oct 30) and 4 more; mean +1.6 rebounds against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

10 games played · averaging 7.8 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 7.5 · POINTS · 2019–2026

HIT RATE83.2%397 of 477 games

INTERVAL79.6%–86.3%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN-497at that rate

AT THE FLOOR-385if the rate is 79.6%

Keldon has cleared 7.5 points in 83.2% of 477 games since 2019, and in 50.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs -497 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

PHX

AWAY

26.1MIN

4POINTS

5 · 3 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 33.3
USG%: 10.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +30
PRA: 12

2026-11-07

POR

AWAY

27.2MIN

10POINTS

7 · 4 · 3-10

ABOVE

FG: 3-10
3PT: 0-3
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 2/5
TS%: 42.5
USG%: 23.4
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 4
+/−: +4
PRA: 21

2026-11-06

SAC

AWAY

26.7MIN

3POINTS

6 · 6 · 1-3

BELOW

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-3
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 34.7
USG%: 10.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +27
PRA: 15

2026-11-04

DAL

HOME

19.4MIN

4POINTS

5 · 2 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 0-3
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 3/2
TS%: 34.0
USG%: 16.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -13
PRA: 11

2026-11-02

UTAH

HOME

26.5MIN

15POINTS

7 · 1 · 5-12

ABOVE

FG: 5-12
3PT: 1-2
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 51.2
USG%: 22.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -2
PRA: 23

2026-10-31

MIN

HOME

24.4MIN

2POINTS

6 · 0 · 1-3

BELOW

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 33.3
USG%: 5.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +9
PRA: 8

2026-10-28

UTAH

AWAY

23.4MIN

9POINTS

6 · 2 · 4-7

ABOVE

FG: 4-7
3PT: 0-2
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 57.1
USG%: 16.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -1
PRA: 17

2026-10-27

SAC

HOME

22.0MIN

14POINTS

4 · 0 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 0-0
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 53.0
USG%: 25.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +6
PRA: 18

2026-10-24

DAL

AWAY

26.1MIN

7POINTS

6 · 3 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 4/2
TS%: 59.5
USG%: 9.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +14
PRA: 16

2026-10-20

OKC

HOME

19.6MIN

10POINTS

4 · 1 · 4-8

ABOVE

FG: 4-8
3PT: 1-2
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 3/1
TS%: 59.2
USG%: 21.8
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -12
PRA: 15

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at CHI, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:36 UTC

Projected 25.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 10.5 · Over -122 / Under -112 · 2 books

Case for the over

CHI have allowed 129.3 points a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to forwards, 62.3 a game, the 6th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (forwards; usage 10.9% to 20.9%, 16.1 to 32.1 min a game, at least 17.0 min in the game): Mikal Bridges (NYK) 7 vs 6.6 in his other games (Nov 4); Sam Hauser (BOS) 6 and 11 vs 8.0 in his other games (Oct 30, Oct 26); Mitchell Robinson (BOS) 11 vs 5.2 in his other games (Oct 30) and 4 more; mean +2.0 points against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 10.5 in 8 of 10 games this season (newest first: 4, 10, 3, 4, 15, 2, 9, 14, 7, 10); season average 7.8, last 3 average 5.7.
Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.1 a game so far; 0.323 points per minute projects 8.1, -23% against the 10.5 line.

Rebounds 5.5 · Over -112 / Under -125 · 2 books

Case for the over

Over 5.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 5, 7, 6, 5, 7, 6, 6, 4, 6, 4); last 3 average 6.0.
Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.1 a game so far; 0.232 rebounds per minute projects 5.8, +5% against the 5.5 line.
CHI have allowed 49.7 rebounds a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to forwards, 27.7 a game, the 2nd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI miss 52.2 shots a game, the 2nd-most of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (forwards; usage 10.9% to 20.9%, 16.1 to 32.1 min a game, at least 17.0 min in the game): Mikal Bridges (NYK) 4 vs 3.8 in his other games (Nov 4); Sam Hauser (BOS) 3 and 4 vs 3.0 in his other games (Oct 30, Oct 26); Mitchell Robinson (BOS) 4 vs 5.8 in his other games (Oct 30) and 4 more; mean +1.6 rebounds against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way