MIL · C · 2026 season

Kel'el Ware

Next game: vs LAL, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 87 minutes before tip, 23:33 UTC · lines as of 23:07 UTC

Projected 26.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 11 games this season

Points 11.5 · Over -110 / Under -122 · 11 books

Case for the over

Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 17.3 a game so far; 0.495 points per minute projects 12.9, +12% against the 11.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 11.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 8, 0, 4, 2, 2, 19, 6, 16, 19, 11, ...); season average 8.5, last 3 average 4.0.
The projection assumes 26.0 minutes, more than his 17.3 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 5.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, LAL have allowed 18.2 points a game over 12 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 8.5 · Over -106 / Under -128 · 12 books

Case for the over

Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 17.3 a game so far; 0.384 rebounds per minute projects 10.0, +18% against the 8.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 8.5 in 7 of 11 games this season (newest first: 4, 0, 3, 5, 9, 10, 8, 14, 13, 4, ...); season average 6.6, last 3 average 2.3.
The projection assumes 26.0 minutes, more than his 17.3 a game so far.
He has grabbed 8.3% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, down from 16.6% on the season. a hint, not a finding
LAL have allowed 40.9 rebounds a game over 12 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to centers, 10.6 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
LAL miss 40.7 shots a game, the fewest of 30 (12 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 20.5 · Over -126 / Under -102 · 2 books

Case for the over

Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 17.3 a game so far; 0.922 PRA per minute projects 24.0, +17% against the 20.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 20.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 13, 1, 7, 8, 11, 32, 14, 30, 33, 15, ...); season average 15.9, last 3 average 7.0.
The projection assumes 26.0 minutes, more than his 17.3 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 5.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, LAL have allowed 32.2 points + rebounds + assists a game over 12 games, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 19.5 · Over -120 / Under -111 · 5 books

Case for the over

Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 17.3 a game so far; 0.879 PR per minute projects 22.9, +17% against the 19.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 19.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 12, 0, 7, 7, 11, 29, 14, 30, 32, 15, ...); season average 15.2, last 3 average 6.3.
The projection assumes 26.0 minutes, more than his 17.3 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 5.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, LAL have allowed 28.8 points + rebounds a game over 12 games, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 12.5 · Over -108 / Under -122 · 1 book

Case for the over

Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 17.3 a game so far; 0.537 PA per minute projects 14.0, +12% against the 12.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 12.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 9, 1, 4, 3, 2, 22, 6, 16, 20, 11, ...); season average 9.3, last 3 average 4.7.
The projection assumes 26.0 minutes, more than his 17.3 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 5.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, LAL have allowed 21.7 points + assists a game over 12 games, the 9th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 9.5 · Over -115 / Under -111 · 1 book

Case for the over

Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 17.3 a game so far; 0.427 RA per minute projects 11.1, +17% against the 9.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 9.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 5, 1, 3, 6, 9, 13, 8, 14, 14, 4, ...); season average 7.4, last 3 average 3.0.
The projection assumes 26.0 minutes, more than his 17.3 a game so far.
He has grabbed 8.3% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, down from 16.6% on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, LAL have allowed 14.1 rebounds + assists a game over 12 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
LAL miss 40.7 shots a game, the fewest of 30 (12 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

11 games played · averaging 8.5 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 8.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026

HIT RATE49.7%77 of 155 games

INTERVAL41.9%–57.5%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+101at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+139if the rate is 41.9%

Kel'el has cleared 8.5 points in 49.7% of 155 games since 2024, and in 40.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +101 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-10

AWAY

17.4MIN

8POINTS

4 · 1 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 51.5
USG%: 28.3
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +1
PRA: 13

2026-11-08

BOS

HOME

9.0MIN

0POINTS

0 · 1 · 0-2

BELOW

FG: 0-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 16.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: -15
PRA: 1

2026-11-06

TOR

HOME

12.9MIN

4POINTS

3 · 0 · 2-7

BELOW

FG: 2-7
3PT: 0-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 28.6
USG%: 26.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: 0
PRA: 7

2026-11-04

BOS

AWAY

15.6MIN

2POINTS

5 · 1 · 1-6

BELOW

FG: 1-6
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 16.7
USG%: 20.0
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -6
PRA: 8

2026-11-02

MIN

AWAY

17.0MIN

2POINTS

9 · 0 · 1-6

BELOW

FG: 1-6
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/6
TS%: 16.7
USG%: 16.4
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +2
PRA: 11

2026-10-31

CLE

HOME

24.2MIN

19POINTS

10 · 3 · 6-16

ABOVE

FG: 6-16
3PT: 3-8
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 4/6
TS%: 52.2
USG%: 36.4
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: -14
PRA: 32

2026-10-28

HOU

HOME

16.5MIN

6POINTS

8 · 0 · 2-9

BELOW

FG: 2-9
3PT: 0-3
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 5/3
TS%: 30.4
USG%: 27.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: -31
PRA: 14

2026-10-26

IND

HOME

19.2MIN

16POINTS

14 · 0 · 7-13

ABOVE

FG: 7-13
3PT: 0-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 5/9
TS%: 57.6
USG%: 30.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -5
PRA: 30

2026-10-24

PHI

AWAY

29.0MIN

19POINTS

13 · 1 · 6-11

ABOVE

FG: 6-11
3PT: 2-5
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 5/8
TS%: 72.0
USG%: 21.6
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: +4
PRA: 33

2026-10-23

CHI

HOME

15.4MIN

11POINTS

4 · 0 · 5-7

ABOVE

FG: 5-7
3PT: 1-1
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 69.8
USG%: 25.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +10
PRA: 15

2026-10-21

WAS

AWAY

13.7MIN

7POINTS

3 · 1 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 0-2
FT: 1-3
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 47.8
USG%: 24.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 6
+/−: -10
PRA: 11

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: vs LAL, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 87 minutes before tip, 23:33 UTC · lines as of 23:07 UTC

Projected 26.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 11 games this season

Points 11.5 · Over -110 / Under -122 · 11 books

Case for the over

Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 17.3 a game so far; 0.495 points per minute projects 12.9, +12% against the 11.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 11.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 8, 0, 4, 2, 2, 19, 6, 16, 19, 11, ...); season average 8.5, last 3 average 4.0.
The projection assumes 26.0 minutes, more than his 17.3 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 5.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, LAL have allowed 18.2 points a game over 12 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 8.5 · Over -106 / Under -128 · 12 books

Case for the over

Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 17.3 a game so far; 0.384 rebounds per minute projects 10.0, +18% against the 8.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 8.5 in 7 of 11 games this season (newest first: 4, 0, 3, 5, 9, 10, 8, 14, 13, 4, ...); season average 6.6, last 3 average 2.3.
The projection assumes 26.0 minutes, more than his 17.3 a game so far.
He has grabbed 8.3% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, down from 16.6% on the season. a hint, not a finding
LAL have allowed 40.9 rebounds a game over 12 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to centers, 10.6 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
LAL miss 40.7 shots a game, the fewest of 30 (12 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 20.5 · Over -126 / Under -102 · 2 books

Case for the over

Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 17.3 a game so far; 0.922 PRA per minute projects 24.0, +17% against the 20.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 20.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 13, 1, 7, 8, 11, 32, 14, 30, 33, 15, ...); season average 15.9, last 3 average 7.0.
The projection assumes 26.0 minutes, more than his 17.3 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 5.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, LAL have allowed 32.2 points + rebounds + assists a game over 12 games, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 19.5 · Over -120 / Under -111 · 5 books

Case for the over

Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 17.3 a game so far; 0.879 PR per minute projects 22.9, +17% against the 19.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 19.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 12, 0, 7, 7, 11, 29, 14, 30, 32, 15, ...); season average 15.2, last 3 average 6.3.
The projection assumes 26.0 minutes, more than his 17.3 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 5.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, LAL have allowed 28.8 points + rebounds a game over 12 games, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 12.5 · Over -108 / Under -122 · 1 book

Case for the over

Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 17.3 a game so far; 0.537 PA per minute projects 14.0, +12% against the 12.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 12.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 9, 1, 4, 3, 2, 22, 6, 16, 20, 11, ...); season average 9.3, last 3 average 4.7.
The projection assumes 26.0 minutes, more than his 17.3 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 5.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, LAL have allowed 21.7 points + assists a game over 12 games, the 9th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 9.5 · Over -115 / Under -111 · 1 book

Case for the over

Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 17.3 a game so far; 0.427 RA per minute projects 11.1, +17% against the 9.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 9.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 5, 1, 3, 6, 9, 13, 8, 14, 14, 4, ...); season average 7.4, last 3 average 3.0.
The projection assumes 26.0 minutes, more than his 17.3 a game so far.
He has grabbed 8.3% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, down from 16.6% on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, LAL have allowed 14.1 rebounds + assists a game over 12 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
LAL miss 40.7 shots a game, the fewest of 30 (12 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.