NYK · G · 2026 season

Landry Shamet

Next game: vs CLE, Thu 00:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 88 minutes before tip, 22:32 UTC · lines as of 22:19 UTC

Projected 26.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 8.5 · Over -115 / Under -115 · 13 books

Case for the over

He averages 9.4 points over 10 games, above the 8.5 line.
Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.6 a game so far; 0.367 points per minute projects 9.5, +12% against the 8.5 line.
To guards, CLE have allowed 69.5 points a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CLE (guards; usage 9.3% to 19.3%, 17.6 to 33.6 min a game, at least 18.0 min in the game): Sion James (CHA) 11 vs 5.8 in his other games (Nov 9); VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 19 and 11 vs 12.2 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anfernee Simons (PHI) 6 vs 10.8 in his other games (Nov 6) and 11 more; mean +2.7 points against their own averages over 16 games from 14 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Threes 1.5 · Over -174 / Under +130 · 9 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 3, 1, 4, 0, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1); season average 2.2, last 3 average 2.0.
Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.6 a game so far; 0.086 threes per minute projects 2.2, +49% against the 1.5 line.
CLE have allowed 14.2 threes made a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30; to guards, 9.5 a game, the 6th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CLE allow 40.0 three-point attempts a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CLE (guards; usage 9.3% to 19.3%, 17.6 to 33.6 min a game, at least 18.0 min in the game): Sion James (CHA) 3 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 9); VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 3 and 1 vs 1.7 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anfernee Simons (PHI) 1 vs 2.6 in his other games (Nov 6) and 7 more; mean +0.5 threes made against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 59% (9 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

10 games played · averaging 9.4 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 9.5 · POINTS · 2019–2026

HIT RATE31.7%140 of 442 games

INTERVAL27.5%–36.2%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+215at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+263if the rate is 27.5%

Landry has cleared 9.5 points in 31.7% of 442 games since 2019, and in 40.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +215 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-10

MIL

HOME

28.2MIN

10POINTS

3 · 2 · 4-7

ABOVE

FG: 4-7
3PT: 2-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 71.4
USG%: 10.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +24
PRA: 15

2026-11-07

CLE

AWAY

28.9MIN

9POINTS

1 · 1 · 3-8

BELOW

FG: 3-8
3PT: 3-8
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 56.3
USG%: 13.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +6
PRA: 11

2026-11-04

CHI

HOME

24.8MIN

7POINTS

2 · 2 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 1-5
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 44.4
USG%: 14.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +21
PRA: 11

2026-11-02

BKN

HOME

30.0MIN

22POINTS

1 · 1 · 6-8

ABOVE

FG: 6-8
3PT: 4-6
FT: 6-6
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 103.4
USG%: 16.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +4
PRA: 24

2026-10-30

PHI

AWAY

16.1MIN

0POINTS

0 · 0 · 0-3

BELOW

FG: 0-3
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 14.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: -7
PRA: 0

2026-10-28

CHI

AWAY

32.4MIN

14POINTS

1 · 5 · 5-10

ABOVE

FG: 5-10
3PT: 4-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 70.0
USG%: 11.8
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +13
PRA: 20

2026-10-27

DET

HOME

28.5MIN

13POINTS

2 · 3 · 3-8

ABOVE

FG: 3-8
3PT: 3-5
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 2/0
TS%: 66.6
USG%: 15.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -3
PRA: 18

2026-10-25

ORL

HOME

21.8MIN

6POINTS

2 · 1 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 2-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 13.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -1
PRA: 9

2026-10-23

BOS

AWAY

21.2MIN

8POINTS

2 · 0 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 2-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 17.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +7
PRA: 10

2026-10-20

PHI

HOME

24.5MIN

5POINTS

2 · 4 · 2-7

BELOW

FG: 2-7
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 31.7
USG%: 16.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +11
PRA: 11

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: vs CLE, Thu 00:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 88 minutes before tip, 22:32 UTC · lines as of 22:19 UTC

Projected 26.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 8.5 · Over -115 / Under -115 · 13 books

Case for the over

He averages 9.4 points over 10 games, above the 8.5 line.
Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.6 a game so far; 0.367 points per minute projects 9.5, +12% against the 8.5 line.
To guards, CLE have allowed 69.5 points a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CLE (guards; usage 9.3% to 19.3%, 17.6 to 33.6 min a game, at least 18.0 min in the game): Sion James (CHA) 11 vs 5.8 in his other games (Nov 9); VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 19 and 11 vs 12.2 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anfernee Simons (PHI) 6 vs 10.8 in his other games (Nov 6) and 11 more; mean +2.7 points against their own averages over 16 games from 14 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Threes 1.5 · Over -174 / Under +130 · 9 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 3, 1, 4, 0, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1); season average 2.2, last 3 average 2.0.
Projected for 26.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.6 a game so far; 0.086 threes per minute projects 2.2, +49% against the 1.5 line.
CLE have allowed 14.2 threes made a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30; to guards, 9.5 a game, the 6th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CLE allow 40.0 three-point attempts a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CLE (guards; usage 9.3% to 19.3%, 17.6 to 33.6 min a game, at least 18.0 min in the game): Sion James (CHA) 3 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 9); VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 3 and 1 vs 1.7 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Anfernee Simons (PHI) 1 vs 2.6 in his other games (Nov 6) and 7 more; mean +0.5 threes made against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 59% (9 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way