CHI · F · 2026 season

Matas Buzelis

Next game: vs SAS, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:36 UTC

Projected 32.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 9 games this season

Points 14.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 12 books

Case for the over

Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.525 points per minute projects 16.8, +16% against the 14.5 line.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 7 vs 15.9 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 7 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 21 and 12 vs 14.2 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 7 more; mean +1.8 points against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 14.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 19, 12, 4, 14, 17, 11, 21, 7, 17); season average 13.6, last 3 average 11.7.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 106.3 points a game over 10 games, the 6th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 45.7 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 5.5 · Over +106 / Under -141 · 11 books

Case for the over

SAS miss 49.4 shots a game, the 7th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Dillon Brooks (PHX) 4 vs 3.9 in his other games (Nov 9); Naji Marshall (DAL) 5 vs 2.5 in his other games (Nov 4); Lauri Markkanen (UTA) 8 vs 6.4 in his other games (Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +1.1 rebounds against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 5.5 in 8 of 9 games this season (newest first: 5, 5, 3, 5, 5, 1, 5, 5, 6); season average 4.4, last 3 average 4.3.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
To forwards, SAS have allowed 22.3 rebounds a game over 10 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 55% (11 books at 5.5).

Assists 1.5 · Over -180 / Under +132 · 11 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 7 of 9 games this season (newest first: 2, 3, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 3, 0); season average 2.0, last 3 average 2.3.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.077 assists per minute projects 2.5, +65% against the 1.5 line.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Dillon Brooks (PHX) 0 vs 2.4 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 3 and 2 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24); Lauri Markkanen (UTA) 3 vs 1.9 in his other games (Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +0.2 assists against their own averages over 9 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 60% (11 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 24.3 assists a game over 10 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 8.9 a game, the 5th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 42.7% shooting from the field, the 3rd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -136 / Under -100 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 3, 1, 0, 2, 3, 2, 2, 0, 0).
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.056 threes per minute projects 1.8, +19% against the 1.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 54% (13 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 1.3 threes made, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 12.2 threes made a game over 10 games, the 9th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 4.6 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 33.5 three-point attempts a game, the fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 0 vs 2.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 1 vs 2.0 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 3 and 0 vs 2.6 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 6 more; mean -0.1 threes made against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 22.5 · Over -110 / Under -120 · 7 books

Case for the over

Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.775 PRA per minute projects 24.8, +10% against the 22.5 line.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 12 vs 27.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 11 vs 22.1 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 34 and 18 vs 22.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 7 more; mean +1.4 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 22.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 26, 20, 9, 20, 25, 14, 28, 15, 23); season average 20.0, last 3 average 18.3.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 173.6 points + rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 76.9 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 20.5 · Over -105 / Under -125 · 7 books

Case for the over

Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.697 PR per minute projects 22.3, +9% against the 20.5 line.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 12 vs 23.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 11 vs 19.7 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 31 and 16 vs 22.0 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 7 more; mean +1.9 points + rebounds against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 20.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 24, 17, 7, 19, 22, 12, 26, 12, 23); season average 18.0, last 3 average 16.0.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 149.3 points + rebounds a game over 10 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 68.0 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 16.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 6 books

Case for the over

Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.602 PA per minute projects 19.3, +17% against the 16.5 line.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 7 vs 19.3 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 7 vs 18.2 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 24 and 14 vs 15.1 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 7 more; mean +1.3 points + assists against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 16.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 21, 15, 6, 15, 20, 13, 23, 10, 17); season average 15.6, last 3 average 14.0.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 130.6 points + assists a game over 10 games, the 6th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 54.6 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 7.5 · Over -101 / Under -130 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.250 RA per minute projects 8.0, +6% against the 7.5 line.
SAS miss 49.4 shots a game, the 7th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Dillon Brooks (PHX) 4 vs 6.3 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 13 and 6 vs 8.7 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24); Naji Marshall (DAL) 8 vs 7.2 in his other games (Nov 4) and 5 more; mean +0.4 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 10 games from 8 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 7.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 7, 8, 5, 6, 8, 3, 7, 8, 6); season average 6.4, last 3 average 6.7.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 67.3 rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 9th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 31.2 a game, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -124 / Under -109 · 1 book

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0); last 3 average 0.3.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 6.6 steals a game over 10 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to forwards, 3.2 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS commit 12.2 turnovers a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 0 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 0 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 0 and 0 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 7 more; mean -0.6 steals against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 0.5 · Over -190 / Under +138 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 2); season average 0.7, last 3 average 0.7.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.026 blocks per minute projects 0.8, +65% against the 0.5 line.
SAS take 91.7 shots a game, the 3rd-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 61% (1 book at 0.5).

Case for the under

The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

9 games played · averaging 13.6 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 13.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026

HIT RATE43.4%72 of 166 games

INTERVAL36.1%–51.0%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+130at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+177if the rate is 36.1%

Matas has cleared 13.5 points in 43.4% of 166 games since 2024, and in 60.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +130 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-08

PHI

HOME

30.9MIN

19POINTS

5 · 2 · 6-10

ABOVE

FG: 6-10
3PT: 3-7
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 80.8
USG%: 16.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -10
PRA: 26

2026-11-04

AWAY

26.1MIN

12POINTS

5 · 3 · 5-11

BELOW

FG: 5-11
3PT: 1-6
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 52.4
USG%: 19.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -19
PRA: 20

2026-11-02

PHI

AWAY

23.3MIN

4POINTS

3 · 2 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 40.0
USG%: 17.8
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 5
PF: 4
+/−: -7
PRA: 9

2026-10-30

BOS

AWAY

19.9MIN

14POINTS

5 · 1 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 2-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 58.9
USG%: 26.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -14
PRA: 20

2026-10-28

HOME

32.8MIN

17POINTS

5 · 3 · 5-13

ABOVE

FG: 5-13
3PT: 3-6
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 54.3
USG%: 24.8
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 1
+/−: +1
PRA: 25

2026-10-26

BOS

AWAY

22.4MIN

11POINTS

1 · 2 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 2-4
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 70.9
USG%: 17.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -27
PRA: 14

2026-10-24

WAS

HOME

34.9MIN

21POINTS

5 · 2 · 7-13

ABOVE

FG: 7-13
3PT: 2-7
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 69.1
USG%: 21.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: +3
PRA: 28

2026-10-23

MIL

AWAY

17.3MIN

7POINTS

5 · 3 · 2-9

BELOW

FG: 2-9
3PT: 0-4
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 32.5
USG%: 28.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -10
PRA: 15

2026-10-21

TOR

AWAY

24.8MIN

17POINTS

6 · 0 · 2-8

ABOVE

FG: 2-8
3PT: 0-4
FT: 13-16
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 56.5
USG%: 26.3
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: -24
PRA: 23

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: vs SAS, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:36 UTC

Projected 32.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 9 games this season

Points 14.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 12 books

Case for the over

Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.525 points per minute projects 16.8, +16% against the 14.5 line.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 7 vs 15.9 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 7 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 21 and 12 vs 14.2 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 7 more; mean +1.8 points against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 14.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 19, 12, 4, 14, 17, 11, 21, 7, 17); season average 13.6, last 3 average 11.7.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 106.3 points a game over 10 games, the 6th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 45.7 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 5.5 · Over +106 / Under -141 · 11 books

Case for the over

SAS miss 49.4 shots a game, the 7th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Dillon Brooks (PHX) 4 vs 3.9 in his other games (Nov 9); Naji Marshall (DAL) 5 vs 2.5 in his other games (Nov 4); Lauri Markkanen (UTA) 8 vs 6.4 in his other games (Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +1.1 rebounds against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 5.5 in 8 of 9 games this season (newest first: 5, 5, 3, 5, 5, 1, 5, 5, 6); season average 4.4, last 3 average 4.3.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
To forwards, SAS have allowed 22.3 rebounds a game over 10 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 55% (11 books at 5.5).

Assists 1.5 · Over -180 / Under +132 · 11 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 7 of 9 games this season (newest first: 2, 3, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 3, 0); season average 2.0, last 3 average 2.3.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.077 assists per minute projects 2.5, +65% against the 1.5 line.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Dillon Brooks (PHX) 0 vs 2.4 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 3 and 2 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24); Lauri Markkanen (UTA) 3 vs 1.9 in his other games (Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +0.2 assists against their own averages over 9 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 60% (11 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 24.3 assists a game over 10 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 8.9 a game, the 5th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 42.7% shooting from the field, the 3rd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -136 / Under -100 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 3, 1, 0, 2, 3, 2, 2, 0, 0).
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.056 threes per minute projects 1.8, +19% against the 1.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 54% (13 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 1.3 threes made, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 12.2 threes made a game over 10 games, the 9th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 4.6 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 33.5 three-point attempts a game, the fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 0 vs 2.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 1 vs 2.0 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 3 and 0 vs 2.6 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 6 more; mean -0.1 threes made against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 22.5 · Over -110 / Under -120 · 7 books

Case for the over

Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.775 PRA per minute projects 24.8, +10% against the 22.5 line.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 12 vs 27.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 11 vs 22.1 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 34 and 18 vs 22.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 7 more; mean +1.4 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 22.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 26, 20, 9, 20, 25, 14, 28, 15, 23); season average 20.0, last 3 average 18.3.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 173.6 points + rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 76.9 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 20.5 · Over -105 / Under -125 · 7 books

Case for the over

Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.697 PR per minute projects 22.3, +9% against the 20.5 line.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 12 vs 23.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 11 vs 19.7 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 31 and 16 vs 22.0 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 7 more; mean +1.9 points + rebounds against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 20.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 24, 17, 7, 19, 22, 12, 26, 12, 23); season average 18.0, last 3 average 16.0.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 149.3 points + rebounds a game over 10 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 68.0 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 16.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 6 books

Case for the over

Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.602 PA per minute projects 19.3, +17% against the 16.5 line.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 7 vs 19.3 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 7 vs 18.2 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 24 and 14 vs 15.1 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 7 more; mean +1.3 points + assists against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 16.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 21, 15, 6, 15, 20, 13, 23, 10, 17); season average 15.6, last 3 average 14.0.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 130.6 points + assists a game over 10 games, the 6th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 54.6 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 7.5 · Over -101 / Under -130 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.250 RA per minute projects 8.0, +6% against the 7.5 line.
SAS miss 49.4 shots a game, the 7th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Dillon Brooks (PHX) 4 vs 6.3 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 13 and 6 vs 8.7 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24); Naji Marshall (DAL) 8 vs 7.2 in his other games (Nov 4) and 5 more; mean +0.4 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 10 games from 8 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 7.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 7, 8, 5, 6, 8, 3, 7, 8, 6); season average 6.4, last 3 average 6.7.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 67.3 rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 9th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 31.2 a game, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -124 / Under -109 · 1 book

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0); last 3 average 0.3.
The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.
SAS have allowed 6.6 steals a game over 10 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to forwards, 3.2 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS commit 12.2 turnovers a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 16.7% to 26.7%, 17.8 to 33.8 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 0 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 0 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 9); P.J. Washington (DAL) 0 and 0 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 7 more; mean -0.6 steals against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 0.5 · Over -190 / Under +138 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 2); season average 0.7, last 3 average 0.7.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.8 a game so far; 0.026 blocks per minute projects 0.8, +65% against the 0.5 line.
SAS take 91.7 shots a game, the 3rd-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 61% (1 book at 0.5).

Case for the under

The projection assumes 32.0 minutes, more than his 25.8 a game so far.