LAL · G-F · 2026 season

Matisse Thybulle

Next game: at MIL, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 87 minutes before tip, 23:33 UTC · lines as of 23:07 UTC

Projected 28.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 12 games this season

Points 5.5 · Over -125 / Under -105 · 7 books

Case for the over

Over 5.5 in 7 of 12 games this season (newest first: 6, 4, 2, 3, 6, 6, 10, 15, 5, 11, ...); season average 7.0.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.285 points per minute projects 8.0, +45% against the 5.5 line.
MIL have allowed 121.2 points a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30; to guards, 66.1 a game, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Miles McBride (NYK) 8 vs 6.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Landry Shamet (NYK) 10 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 10); Jamal Shead (TOR) 10 vs 7.1 in his other games (Nov 6) and 5 more; mean +3.5 points against their own averages over 8 games from 8 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 4.0 points, below the 5.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 5.4 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 2.5 · Over +124 / Under -164 · 5 books

Case for the over

MIL have allowed 48.9 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 19.8 a game, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL miss 51.0 shots a game, the 4th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Miles McBride (NYK) 0 vs 1.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Landry Shamet (NYK) 3 vs 1.4 in his other games (Nov 10); Jamal Shead (TOR) 3 vs 2.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean +0.5 rebounds against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 2.5 in 10 of 12 games this season (newest first: 0, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, ...); season average 1.6, last 3 average 1.3.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.065 rebounds per minute projects 1.8, -28% against the 2.5 line.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
He has grabbed 2.8% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, down from 3.5% on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 58% (5 books at 2.5).

Assists 1.5 · Over +110 / Under -153 · 2 books

Case for the over

MIL have allowed 27.8 assists a game over 11 games, the 6th-most of 30; to guards, 18.8 a game, the 4th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Miles McBride (NYK) 3 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 10); Landry Shamet (NYK) 2 vs 1.9 in his other games (Nov 10); Baylor Scheierman (BOS) 1 vs 1.4 in his other games (Nov 4) and 4 more; mean +0.2 assists against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 8 of 12 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 0, 2, 2, 3, 0, 0, 1, 1, ...); season average 1.1, last 3 average 0.3.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.044 assists per minute projects 1.2, -18% against the 1.5 line.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
He has assisted on 1.7% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, down from 5.8% on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 56% (2 books at 1.5).

Threes 1.5 · Over +110 / Under -147 · 12 books

Case for the over

He averages 1.7 threes made over 12 games, above the 1.5 line.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.068 threes per minute projects 1.9, +27% against the 1.5 line.
MIL have allowed 14.8 threes made a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30; to guards, 9.6 a game, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 41.5 three-point attempts a game, the 3rd-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Miles McBride (NYK) 2 vs 1.8 in his other games (Nov 10); Landry Shamet (NYK) 2 vs 2.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Jamal Shead (TOR) 1 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 6) and 3 more; mean +0.6 threes made against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 0.7 threes made, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.2 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 56% (12 books at 1.5).

Pts+Reb+Ast 10.5 · Over +101 / Under -136 · 4 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.394 PRA per minute projects 11.0, +5% against the 10.5 line.
MIL have allowed 197.9 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 104.7 a game, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Miles McBride (NYK) 11 vs 9.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Landry Shamet (NYK) 15 vs 12.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Baylor Scheierman (BOS) 21 vs 10.1 in his other games (Nov 4) and 3 more; mean +5.5 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 10.5 in 7 of 12 games this season (newest first: 7, 6, 4, 6, 9, 11, 13, 16, 8, 13, ...); season average 9.7, last 3 average 5.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 5.4 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 53% (4 books at 10.5).

Pts+Reb 7.5 · Over -130 / Under -105 · 3 books

Case for the over

He averages 8.6 points + rebounds over 12 games, above the 7.5 line.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.350 PR per minute projects 9.8, +31% against the 7.5 line.
MIL have allowed 170.1 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 85.9 a game, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Miles McBride (NYK) 8 vs 8.3 in his other games (Nov 10); Landry Shamet (NYK) 13 vs 10.8 in his other games (Nov 10); Jamal Shead (TOR) 13 vs 9.1 in his other games (Nov 6) and 4 more; mean +5.0 points + rebounds against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (3 books at 7.5).

Case for the under

Under 7.5 in 7 of 12 games this season (newest first: 6, 6, 4, 4, 7, 8, 13, 16, 7, 12, ...); last 3 average 5.3.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 5.4 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 1.5 · Over -144 / Under +105 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 9 of 12 games this season (newest first: 3, 4, 3, 2, 0, 2, 3, 2, 0, 3, ...); season average 2.1, last 3 average 3.3.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.085 steals per minute projects 2.4, +58% against the 1.5 line.
MIL have allowed 9.6 steals a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30, tied with 1 other team; to guards, 5.0 a game, the 9th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 2 vs 1.4 in his other games (Nov 6); Ja'Kobe Walter (TOR) 1 vs 1.2 in his other games (Nov 6); Bilal Coulibaly (WAS) 4 vs 0.9 in his other games (Oct 21); mean +1.1 steals against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 55% (5 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 0.5 · Over -121 / Under -112 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 8 of 12 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 0, 2, 1, 2, 0, 1, 0, 1, ...); season average 0.8.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.034 blocks per minute projects 1.0, +90% against the 0.5 line.
MIL have allowed 5.9 blocks a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30; to guards, 2.3 a game, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL take 89.5 shots a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 0.3 blocks, below the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

12 games played · averaging 7.0 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 7.5 · POINTS · 2019–2026

HIT RATE25.5%102 of 400 games

INTERVAL21.5%–30.0%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+292at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+366if the rate is 21.5%

Matisse has cleared 7.5 points in 25.5% of 400 games since 2019, and in 30.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +292 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

ATL

AWAY

23.5MIN

6POINTS

0 · 1 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 2-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 60.0
USG%: 11.1
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: -3
PRA: 7

2026-11-08

DET

AWAY

28.2MIN

4POINTS

2 · 0 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 40.0
USG%: 7.6
STL: 4
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: 0
PRA: 6

2026-11-06

POR

HOME

24.2MIN

2POINTS

2 · 0 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 53.2
USG%: 6.4
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -8
PRA: 4

2026-11-04

SAC

AWAY

23.1MIN

3POINTS

1 · 2 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 1-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 30.0
USG%: 9.8
STL: 2
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -4
PRA: 6

2026-11-02

MIA

HOME

19.0MIN

6POINTS

1 · 2 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 2-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 15.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +13
PRA: 9

2026-11-01

TOR

HOME

25.0MIN

6POINTS

2 · 3 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 2-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 11.6
STL: 2
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +10
PRA: 11

2026-10-30

AWAY

28.1MIN

10POINTS

3 · 0 · 2-6

ABOVE

FG: 2-6
3PT: 1-3
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 61.0
USG%: 14.0
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: -1
PRA: 13

2026-10-28

LAC

AWAY

28.4MIN

15POINTS

1 · 0 · 5-6

ABOVE

FG: 5-6
3PT: 4-5
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 109.0
USG%: 13.3
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: 0
PRA: 16

2026-10-27

POR

HOME

21.9MIN

5POINTS

2 · 1 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 16.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: -12
PRA: 8

2026-10-25

UTAH

AWAY

26.0MIN

11POINTS

1 · 1 · 4-8

ABOVE

FG: 4-8
3PT: 3-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 68.8
USG%: 13.7
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +12
PRA: 13

2026-10-23

LAC

HOME

23.9MIN

13POINTS

1 · 2 · 5-8

ABOVE

FG: 5-8
3PT: 3-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 81.3
USG%: 14.5
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +13
PRA: 16

2026-10-21

HOME

23.2MIN

3POINTS

3 · 1 · 1-4

BELOW

FG: 1-4
3PT: 1-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 37.5
USG%: 9.3
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +12
PRA: 7

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at MIL, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 87 minutes before tip, 23:33 UTC · lines as of 23:07 UTC

Projected 28.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 12 games this season

Points 5.5 · Over -125 / Under -105 · 7 books

Case for the over

Over 5.5 in 7 of 12 games this season (newest first: 6, 4, 2, 3, 6, 6, 10, 15, 5, 11, ...); season average 7.0.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.285 points per minute projects 8.0, +45% against the 5.5 line.
MIL have allowed 121.2 points a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30; to guards, 66.1 a game, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Miles McBride (NYK) 8 vs 6.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Landry Shamet (NYK) 10 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 10); Jamal Shead (TOR) 10 vs 7.1 in his other games (Nov 6) and 5 more; mean +3.5 points against their own averages over 8 games from 8 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 4.0 points, below the 5.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 5.4 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 2.5 · Over +124 / Under -164 · 5 books

Case for the over

MIL have allowed 48.9 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 19.8 a game, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL miss 51.0 shots a game, the 4th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Miles McBride (NYK) 0 vs 1.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Landry Shamet (NYK) 3 vs 1.4 in his other games (Nov 10); Jamal Shead (TOR) 3 vs 2.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean +0.5 rebounds against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 2.5 in 10 of 12 games this season (newest first: 0, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, ...); season average 1.6, last 3 average 1.3.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.065 rebounds per minute projects 1.8, -28% against the 2.5 line.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
He has grabbed 2.8% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, down from 3.5% on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 58% (5 books at 2.5).

Assists 1.5 · Over +110 / Under -153 · 2 books

Case for the over

MIL have allowed 27.8 assists a game over 11 games, the 6th-most of 30; to guards, 18.8 a game, the 4th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Miles McBride (NYK) 3 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 10); Landry Shamet (NYK) 2 vs 1.9 in his other games (Nov 10); Baylor Scheierman (BOS) 1 vs 1.4 in his other games (Nov 4) and 4 more; mean +0.2 assists against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 8 of 12 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 0, 2, 2, 3, 0, 0, 1, 1, ...); season average 1.1, last 3 average 0.3.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.044 assists per minute projects 1.2, -18% against the 1.5 line.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
He has assisted on 1.7% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, down from 5.8% on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 56% (2 books at 1.5).

Threes 1.5 · Over +110 / Under -147 · 12 books

Case for the over

He averages 1.7 threes made over 12 games, above the 1.5 line.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.068 threes per minute projects 1.9, +27% against the 1.5 line.
MIL have allowed 14.8 threes made a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30; to guards, 9.6 a game, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 41.5 three-point attempts a game, the 3rd-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Miles McBride (NYK) 2 vs 1.8 in his other games (Nov 10); Landry Shamet (NYK) 2 vs 2.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Jamal Shead (TOR) 1 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 6) and 3 more; mean +0.6 threes made against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 0.7 threes made, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.2 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 56% (12 books at 1.5).

Pts+Reb+Ast 10.5 · Over +101 / Under -136 · 4 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.394 PRA per minute projects 11.0, +5% against the 10.5 line.
MIL have allowed 197.9 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 104.7 a game, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Miles McBride (NYK) 11 vs 9.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Landry Shamet (NYK) 15 vs 12.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Baylor Scheierman (BOS) 21 vs 10.1 in his other games (Nov 4) and 3 more; mean +5.5 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 10.5 in 7 of 12 games this season (newest first: 7, 6, 4, 6, 9, 11, 13, 16, 8, 13, ...); season average 9.7, last 3 average 5.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 5.4 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 53% (4 books at 10.5).

Pts+Reb 7.5 · Over -130 / Under -105 · 3 books

Case for the over

He averages 8.6 points + rebounds over 12 games, above the 7.5 line.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.350 PR per minute projects 9.8, +31% against the 7.5 line.
MIL have allowed 170.1 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 85.9 a game, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Miles McBride (NYK) 8 vs 8.3 in his other games (Nov 10); Landry Shamet (NYK) 13 vs 10.8 in his other games (Nov 10); Jamal Shead (TOR) 13 vs 9.1 in his other games (Nov 6) and 4 more; mean +5.0 points + rebounds against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (3 books at 7.5).

Case for the under

Under 7.5 in 7 of 12 games this season (newest first: 6, 6, 4, 4, 7, 8, 13, 16, 7, 12, ...); last 3 average 5.3.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 5.4 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 1.5 · Over -144 / Under +105 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 9 of 12 games this season (newest first: 3, 4, 3, 2, 0, 2, 3, 2, 0, 3, ...); season average 2.1, last 3 average 3.3.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.085 steals per minute projects 2.4, +58% against the 1.5 line.
MIL have allowed 9.6 steals a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30, tied with 1 other team; to guards, 5.0 a game, the 9th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 6.8% to 16.8%, 16.5 to 32.5 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 2 vs 1.4 in his other games (Nov 6); Ja'Kobe Walter (TOR) 1 vs 1.2 in his other games (Nov 6); Bilal Coulibaly (WAS) 4 vs 0.9 in his other games (Oct 21); mean +1.1 steals against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 55% (5 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 0.5 · Over -121 / Under -112 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 8 of 12 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 0, 2, 1, 2, 0, 1, 0, 1, ...); season average 0.8.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.5 a game so far; 0.034 blocks per minute projects 1.0, +90% against the 0.5 line.
MIL have allowed 5.9 blocks a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30; to guards, 2.3 a game, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL take 89.5 shots a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 0.3 blocks, below the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 24.5 a game so far.
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.