BOS · G · 2026 season

Payton Pritchard

Next game: at PHI, Wed 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 24 hours before tip, 01:02 UTC · lines as of 00:01 UTC

Projected 26.7 min (season average) · 10 games this season

Points 12.5 · Over -112 / Under -121 · 5 books

Case for the over

Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 19 and 13 vs 8.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 13 and 8 vs 11.5 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 12 vs 12.3 in his other games (Nov 6) and 14 more; mean +1.4 points against their own averages over 23 games from 17 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 12.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 12, 10, 4, 7, 30, 4, 28, 4, 17); last 3 average 11.3.
PHI have allowed 107.9 points a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 2.5 · Over -160 / Under +120 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 2.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 5, 6, 1, 3, 7, 3, 2, 1, 1, 4); season average 3.3, last 3 average 4.0.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.7 minutes stands in; 0.124 rebounds per minute projects 3.3, +32% against the 2.5 line.
He has grabbed 7.8% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, up from 5.7% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
PHI have allowed 47.8 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30; to guards, 22.5 a game, the 2nd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 7 and 4 vs 4.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 9 and 1 vs 4.8 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 1 vs 2.8 in his other games (Nov 6) and 10 more; mean +0.3 rebounds against their own averages over 18 games from 13 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 58% (5 books at 2.5).

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Assists 3.5 · Over -120 / Under -112 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 3.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 4, 5, 5, 3, 3, 3, 6, 4, 4, 1); season average 3.8, last 3 average 4.7.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.7 minutes stands in; 0.142 assists per minute projects 3.8, +9% against the 3.5 line.
He has assisted on 26.4% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, up from 22.8% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

PHI have allowed 24.5 assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 44.5% shooting from the field, the 9th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Peyton Watson (CLE) 2 and 2 vs 3.2 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Kevin Huerter (DET) 0 and 2 vs 2.6 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 25); Daniss Jenkins (DET) 4 and 6 vs 4.1 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 25) and 7 more; mean -0.4 assists against their own averages over 14 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -180 / Under +132 · 2 books

Case for the over

He averages 2.1 threes made over 10 games, above the 1.5 line.
His last 3 games average 2.7 threes made, above the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.7 minutes stands in; 0.079 threes per minute projects 2.1, +40% against the 1.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 60% (2 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

PHI have allowed 11.3 threes made a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30; to guards, 6.5 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 35.5 three-point attempts a game, the 9th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Meleek Thomas (CLE) 2 vs 2.7 in his other games (Nov 6); Mario Hezonja (CLE) 2 vs 1.5 in his other games (Nov 6); James Harden (CLE) 3 and 3 vs 2.4 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22) and 7 more; mean -0.1 threes made against their own averages over 14 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 19.5 · Over -112 / Under -121 · 5 books

Case for the over

To guards, PHI have allowed 101.2 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 41 and 27 vs 20.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 24 and 11 vs 19.5 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 16 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 6) and 14 more; mean +2.5 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 23 games from 17 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 15.5 · Over -115 / Under -115 · 3 books

Case for the over

He averages 16.1 points + rebounds over 10 games, above the 15.5 line.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.7 minutes stands in; 0.603 PR per minute projects 16.1, +4% against the 15.5 line.
To guards, PHI have allowed 84.0 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 26 and 17 vs 13.4 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 22 and 9 vs 16.3 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 13 vs 15.2 in his other games (Nov 6) and 14 more; mean +2.2 points + rebounds against their own averages over 23 games from 17 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 16.5 · Over -108 / Under -122 · 3 books

Case for the over

Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 34 and 23 vs 16.0 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 15 and 10 vs 14.7 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 15 vs 13.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 14 more; mean +1.8 points + assists against their own averages over 23 games from 17 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 16.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 16, 17, 15, 7, 10, 33, 10, 32, 8, 18); last 3 average 16.0.
PHI have allowed 132.4 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 6.5 · Over -125 / Under -106 · 3 books

Case for the over

He averages 7.1 rebounds + assists over 10 games, above the 6.5 line.
His last 3 games average 8.7 rebounds + assists, above the 6.5 line. a hint, not a finding
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.7 minutes stands in; 0.266 RA per minute projects 7.1, +9% against the 6.5 line.
He has grabbed 7.8% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, up from 5.7% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
PHI have allowed 72.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30; to guards, 39.7 a game, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Peyton Watson (CLE) 11 and 3 vs 8.0 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 4 vs 3.5 in his other games (Nov 6); Mario Hezonja (CLE) 11 vs 8.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 11 more; mean +0.7 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 18 games from 14 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 6.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 9, 11, 6, 6, 10, 6, 8, 5, 5, 5).

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

10 games played · averaging 12.8 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 12.5 · POINTS · 2020–2026

HIT RATE31.7%162 of 511 games

INTERVAL27.8%–35.9%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+215at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+259if the rate is 27.8%

Payton has cleared 12.5 points in 31.7% of 511 games since 2020, and in 30.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +215 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-08

MIL

AWAY

29.2MIN

12POINTS

5 · 4 · 4-12

BELOW

FG: 4-12
3PT: 4-11
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 17.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +29
PRA: 21

2026-11-06

CHA

AWAY

23.4MIN

12POINTS

6 · 5 · 4-10

BELOW

FG: 4-10
3PT: 4-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 60.0
USG%: 22.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +27
PRA: 23

2026-11-04

MIL

HOME

18.1MIN

10POINTS

1 · 5 · 4-7

BELOW

FG: 4-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 63.5
USG%: 18.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +7
PRA: 16

2026-11-02

HOU

AWAY

30.3MIN

4POINTS

3 · 3 · 0-7

BELOW

FG: 0-7
3PT: 0-5
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 20.7
USG%: 15.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -17
PRA: 10

2026-11-01

ORL

AWAY

27.0MIN

7POINTS

7 · 3 · 3-11

BELOW

FG: 3-11
3PT: 0-7
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 4/3
TS%: 30.6
USG%: 20.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +3
PRA: 17

2026-10-30

CHI

HOME

34.8MIN

30POINTS

3 · 3 · 9-17

ABOVE

FG: 9-17
3PT: 3-9
FT: 9-9
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 71.6
USG%: 29.1
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: +12
PRA: 36

2026-10-27

BKN

HOME

24.4MIN

4POINTS

2 · 6 · 2-7

BELOW

FG: 2-7
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 28.6
USG%: 17.5
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 0
+/−: +2
PRA: 12

2026-10-26

CHI

HOME

21.9MIN

28POINTS

1 · 4 · 10-16

ABOVE

FG: 10-16
3PT: 7-10
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 85.2
USG%: 29.5
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +22
PRA: 33

2026-10-23

HOME

30.4MIN

4POINTS

1 · 4 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 1-3
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 34.0
USG%: 11.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +8
PRA: 9

2026-10-20

DET

AWAY

27.5MIN

17POINTS

4 · 1 · 4-9

ABOVE

FG: 4-9
3PT: 2-5
FT: 7-8
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 67.9
USG%: 19.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -10
PRA: 22

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at PHI, Wed 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 24 hours before tip, 01:02 UTC · lines as of 00:01 UTC

Projected 26.7 min (season average) · 10 games this season

Points 12.5 · Over -112 / Under -121 · 5 books

Case for the over

Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 19 and 13 vs 8.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 13 and 8 vs 11.5 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 12 vs 12.3 in his other games (Nov 6) and 14 more; mean +1.4 points against their own averages over 23 games from 17 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 12.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 12, 10, 4, 7, 30, 4, 28, 4, 17); last 3 average 11.3.
PHI have allowed 107.9 points a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 2.5 · Over -160 / Under +120 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 2.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 5, 6, 1, 3, 7, 3, 2, 1, 1, 4); season average 3.3, last 3 average 4.0.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.7 minutes stands in; 0.124 rebounds per minute projects 3.3, +32% against the 2.5 line.
He has grabbed 7.8% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, up from 5.7% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
PHI have allowed 47.8 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30; to guards, 22.5 a game, the 2nd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 7 and 4 vs 4.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 9 and 1 vs 4.8 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 1 vs 2.8 in his other games (Nov 6) and 10 more; mean +0.3 rebounds against their own averages over 18 games from 13 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 58% (5 books at 2.5).

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Assists 3.5 · Over -120 / Under -112 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 3.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 4, 5, 5, 3, 3, 3, 6, 4, 4, 1); season average 3.8, last 3 average 4.7.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.7 minutes stands in; 0.142 assists per minute projects 3.8, +9% against the 3.5 line.
He has assisted on 26.4% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, up from 22.8% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

PHI have allowed 24.5 assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 44.5% shooting from the field, the 9th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Peyton Watson (CLE) 2 and 2 vs 3.2 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Kevin Huerter (DET) 0 and 2 vs 2.6 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 25); Daniss Jenkins (DET) 4 and 6 vs 4.1 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 25) and 7 more; mean -0.4 assists against their own averages over 14 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -180 / Under +132 · 2 books

Case for the over

He averages 2.1 threes made over 10 games, above the 1.5 line.
His last 3 games average 2.7 threes made, above the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.7 minutes stands in; 0.079 threes per minute projects 2.1, +40% against the 1.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 60% (2 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

PHI have allowed 11.3 threes made a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30; to guards, 6.5 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 35.5 three-point attempts a game, the 9th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Meleek Thomas (CLE) 2 vs 2.7 in his other games (Nov 6); Mario Hezonja (CLE) 2 vs 1.5 in his other games (Nov 6); James Harden (CLE) 3 and 3 vs 2.4 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22) and 7 more; mean -0.1 threes made against their own averages over 14 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 19.5 · Over -112 / Under -121 · 5 books

Case for the over

To guards, PHI have allowed 101.2 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 41 and 27 vs 20.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 24 and 11 vs 19.5 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 16 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 6) and 14 more; mean +2.5 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 23 games from 17 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 15.5 · Over -115 / Under -115 · 3 books

Case for the over

He averages 16.1 points + rebounds over 10 games, above the 15.5 line.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.7 minutes stands in; 0.603 PR per minute projects 16.1, +4% against the 15.5 line.
To guards, PHI have allowed 84.0 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 26 and 17 vs 13.4 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 22 and 9 vs 16.3 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 13 vs 15.2 in his other games (Nov 6) and 14 more; mean +2.2 points + rebounds against their own averages over 23 games from 17 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 16.5 · Over -108 / Under -122 · 3 books

Case for the over

Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 34 and 23 vs 16.0 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 15 and 10 vs 14.7 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 15 vs 13.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 14 more; mean +1.8 points + assists against their own averages over 23 games from 17 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 16.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 16, 17, 15, 7, 10, 33, 10, 32, 8, 18); last 3 average 16.0.
PHI have allowed 132.4 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 6.5 · Over -125 / Under -106 · 3 books

Case for the over

He averages 7.1 rebounds + assists over 10 games, above the 6.5 line.
His last 3 games average 8.7 rebounds + assists, above the 6.5 line. a hint, not a finding
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.7 minutes stands in; 0.266 RA per minute projects 7.1, +9% against the 6.5 line.
He has grabbed 7.8% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, up from 5.7% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
PHI have allowed 72.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30; to guards, 39.7 a game, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.2% to 25.2%, 18.7 to 34.7 min a game, at least 18.7 min in the game): Peyton Watson (CLE) 11 and 3 vs 8.0 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 4 vs 3.5 in his other games (Nov 6); Mario Hezonja (CLE) 11 vs 8.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 11 more; mean +0.7 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 18 games from 14 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 6.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 9, 11, 6, 6, 10, 6, 8, 5, 5, 5).