MIA · G · 2026 season
Pelle Larsson
11 games played · averaging 11.4 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.
OVER 11.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026
HIT RATE32.4%45 of 139 games
INTERVAL25.2%–40.5%95% confidence
BREAK-EVEN+208at that rate
AT THE FLOOR+297if the rate is 25.2%
Pelle has cleared 11.5 points in 32.4% of 139 games since 2024, and in 60.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +208 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS AVG
›2026-11-10
UTAH
AWAY
31.1MIN
14POINTS
7 · 2 · 4-7
ABOVE
- FG
- 4-7
- 3PT
- 2-3
- FT
- 4-4
- OREB/DREB
- 4/3
- TS%
- 79.9
- USG%
- 16.9
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +3
- PRA
- 23
›2026-11-08
SAC
AWAY
22.4MIN
11POINTS
3 · 3 · 4-7
BELOW
- FG
- 4-7
- 3PT
- 3-4
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 2/1
- TS%
- 78.6
- USG%
- 15.7
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 6
- +/−
- +3
- PRA
- 17
›2026-11-05
GS
AWAY
29.4MIN
13POINTS
1 · 4 · 4-9
ABOVE
- FG
- 4-9
- 3PT
- 3-5
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 65.8
- USG%
- 21.1
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 5
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- -15
- PRA
- 18
›2026-11-04
LAC
AWAY
35.4MIN
7POINTS
3 · 4 · 2-7
BELOW
- FG
- 2-7
- 3PT
- 0-2
- FT
- 3-4
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 40.0
- USG%
- 11.8
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -6
- PRA
- 14
›2026-11-02
LAL
AWAY
29.7MIN
9POINTS
3 · 2 · 2-6
BELOW
- FG
- 2-6
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 4-4
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 58.0
- USG%
- 17.4
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 14
›2026-10-30
IND
HOME
23.5MIN
18POINTS
3 · 3 · 5-5
ABOVE
- FG
- 5-5
- 3PT
- 1-1
- FT
- 7-8
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 105.6
- USG%
- 16.4
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -3
- PRA
- 24
›2026-10-28
ATL
AWAY
30.6MIN
17POINTS
6 · 8 · 6-12
ABOVE
- FG
- 6-12
- 3PT
- 2-3
- FT
- 3-4
- OREB/DREB
- 2/4
- TS%
- 61.8
- USG%
- 20.6
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +12
- PRA
- 31
›2026-10-26
DAL
HOME
33.5MIN
12POINTS
0 · 4 · 3-6
ABOVE
- FG
- 3-6
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 5-6
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 69.4
- USG%
- 10.6
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -5
- PRA
- 16
›2026-10-24
CHA
AWAY
36.1MIN
15POINTS
7 · 4 · 5-9
ABOVE
- FG
- 5-9
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 4-4
- OREB/DREB
- 1/6
- TS%
- 69.7
- USG%
- 15.4
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +7
- PRA
- 26
›2026-10-23
DET
HOME
29.3MIN
7POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-7
BELOW
- FG
- 1-7
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 4-4
- OREB/DREB
- 1/1
- TS%
- 40.0
- USG%
- 12.7
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 10
›2026-10-21
MIN
HOME
23.9MIN
2POINTS
3 · 4 · 0-2
BELOW
- FG
- 0-2
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 34.7
- USG%
- 5.2
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -12
- PRA
- 9