MIA · 2026 season

Pelle Larsson

70 games played · averaging 11.4 points. Each row is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 11.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026

HIT RATE30.5%39 of 128 games

INTERVAL23.2%–38.9%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+228at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+332if the rate is 23.2%

Pelle has cleared 11.5 points in 30.5% of 128 games since 2024, and in 60.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +228 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-04-10

WAS

AWAY

26.6MIN

24POINTS

0 · 6 · 8-14

ABOVE

FG: 8-14
3PT: 1-3
FT: 7-8
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 68.5
USG%: 33.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: +17
PRA: 30

2026-04-09

TOR

AWAY

32.3MIN

10POINTS

4 · 2 · 4-10

BELOW

FG: 4-10
3PT: 2-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 16.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -21
PRA: 16

2026-04-07

TOR

AWAY

26.2MIN

7POINTS

3 · 1 · 2-9

BELOW

FG: 2-9
3PT: 1-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 35.4
USG%: 20.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: -13
PRA: 11

2026-04-04

WAS

HOME

23.8MIN

16POINTS

7 · 4 · 6-10

ABOVE

FG: 6-10
3PT: 0-2
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 63.3
USG%: 25.9
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: +27
PRA: 27

2026-04-01

BOS

HOME

37.9MIN

18POINTS

3 · 6 · 7-13

ABOVE

FG: 7-13
3PT: 2-4
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 61.0
USG%: 17.5
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +7
PRA: 27

2026-03-30

PHI

HOME

36.4MIN

20POINTS

10 · 3 · 8-13

ABOVE

FG: 8-13
3PT: 0-4
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 4/6
TS%: 63.9
USG%: 17.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +18
PRA: 33

2026-03-29

IND

AWAY

35.8MIN

15POINTS

5 · 3 · 7-11

ABOVE

FG: 7-11
3PT: 0-1
FT: 1-3
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 60.9
USG%: 15.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -6
PRA: 23

2026-03-27

CLE

AWAY

25.7MIN

10POINTS

3 · 5 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 0-2
FT: 6-6
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 75.3
USG%: 14.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -10
PRA: 18

2026-03-25

CLE

AWAY

34.1MIN

14POINTS

5 · 2 · 3-5

ABOVE

FG: 3-5
3PT: 1-2
FT: 7-7
OREB/DREB: 3/2
TS%: 86.6
USG%: 17.9
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 5
PF: 1
+/−: +14
PRA: 21

2026-03-23

HOME

22.6MIN

7POINTS

1 · 3 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 0-1
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 47.8
USG%: 17.1
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -23
PRA: 11

2026-03-21

HOU

AWAY

31.5MIN

19POINTS

5 · 3 · 7-12

ABOVE

FG: 7-12
3PT: 2-3
FT: 3-5
OREB/DREB: 4/1
TS%: 66.9
USG%: 22.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +2
PRA: 27

2026-03-19

LAL

HOME

33.3MIN

11POINTS

2 · 5 · 3-8

BELOW

FG: 3-8
3PT: 0-2
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 2/0
TS%: 51.7
USG%: 18.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: -16
PRA: 18

2026-03-17

CHA

AWAY

27.7MIN

14POINTS

2 · 0 · 3-7

ABOVE

FG: 3-7
3PT: 1-2
FT: 7-8
OREB/DREB: 2/0
TS%: 66.5
USG%: 21.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 5
+/−: -25
PRA: 16

2026-03-14

ORL

HOME

35.1MIN

15POINTS

3 · 3 · 4-7

ABOVE

FG: 4-7
3PT: 2-3
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 81.5
USG%: 12.7
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +6
PRA: 21

2026-03-12

MIL

HOME

37.8MIN

28POINTS

6 · 6 · 9-14

ABOVE

FG: 9-14
3PT: 2-3
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 79.9
USG%: 20.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +13
PRA: 40

2026-03-10

WAS

HOME

24.4MIN

10POINTS

2 · 1 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 0-3
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 54.3
USG%: 15.2
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +13
PRA: 13

2026-03-08

DET

HOME

32.8MIN

10POINTS

5 · 5 · 3-10

BELOW

FG: 3-10
3PT: 1-3
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 42.5
USG%: 16.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +4
PRA: 20

2026-03-06

CHA

AWAY

28.5MIN

11POINTS

4 · 2 · 3-8

BELOW

FG: 3-8
3PT: 0-1
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 53.9
USG%: 18.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: +3
PRA: 17

2026-03-05

BKN

HOME

30.5MIN

16POINTS

1 · 4 · 6-13

ABOVE

FG: 6-13
3PT: 2-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 57.6
USG%: 20.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +14
PRA: 21

2026-03-03

BKN

HOME

18.5MIN

3POINTS

2 · 3 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 0-2
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 25.5
USG%: 13.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +13
PRA: 8

2026-02-28

HOU

HOME

34.6MIN

20POINTS

4 · 4 · 6-12

ABOVE

FG: 6-12
3PT: 1-5
FT: 7-8
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 64.4
USG%: 23.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: +4
PRA: 28

2026-02-26

PHI

AWAY

33.3MIN

9POINTS

4 · 6 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 2-2
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 65.4
USG%: 11.4
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -14
PRA: 19

2026-02-24

MIL

AWAY

35.9MIN

10POINTS

6 · 5 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 0-3
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 64.4
USG%: 10.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -9
PRA: 21

2026-02-21

MEM

HOME

35.0MIN

10POINTS

1 · 5 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 0-4
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 51.9
USG%: 14.7
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: +14
PRA: 16

2026-02-20

ATL

AWAY

31.9MIN

12POINTS

6 · 1 · 6-9

ABOVE

FG: 6-9
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 13.2
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +16
PRA: 19

2026-02-06

BOS

AWAY

11.6MIN

0POINTS

5 · 3 · 0-0

BELOW

FG: 0-0
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 8.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +15
PRA: 8

2026-02-03

ATL

HOME

35.8MIN

18POINTS

4 · 5 · 7-12

ABOVE

FG: 7-12
3PT: 0-3
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 65.4
USG%: 19.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -12
PRA: 27

2026-02-01

CHI

HOME

23.7MIN

20POINTS

4 · 4 · 8-11

ABOVE

FG: 8-11
3PT: 3-4
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 84.2
USG%: 23.0
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +33
PRA: 28

2026-01-31

CHI

HOME

32.9MIN

22POINTS

7 · 4 · 7-11

ABOVE

FG: 7-11
3PT: 2-5
FT: 6-7
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 78.1
USG%: 18.4
STL: 5
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -3
PRA: 33

2026-01-29

CHI

AWAY

28.6MIN

15POINTS

6 · 3 · 4-8

ABOVE

FG: 4-8
3PT: 1-2
FT: 6-7
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 67.7
USG%: 17.4
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -5
PRA: 24

2026-01-28

ORL

HOME

27.8MIN

8POINTS

9 · 2 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/7
TS%: 50.8
USG%: 13.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: -9
PRA: 19

2026-01-25

PHX

AWAY

35.2MIN

10POINTS

7 · 2 · 4-9

BELOW

FG: 4-9
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 48.4
USG%: 15.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: -14
PRA: 19

2026-01-24

UTAH

AWAY

25.3MIN

20POINTS

2 · 3 · 7-11

ABOVE

FG: 7-11
3PT: 3-6
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 81.2
USG%: 19.5
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +18
PRA: 25

2026-01-22

POR

AWAY

28.9MIN

6POINTS

3 · 6 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 60.0
USG%: 8.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -6
PRA: 15

2026-01-20

SAC

AWAY

26.2MIN

16POINTS

6 · 9 · 7-9

ABOVE

FG: 7-9
3PT: 0-1
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 77.5
USG%: 15.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +10
PRA: 31

2026-01-19

AWAY

27.7MIN

9POINTS

5 · 3 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 0-1
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 3/2
TS%: 51.4
USG%: 11.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -12
PRA: 17

2026-01-17

OKC

HOME

29.5MIN

16POINTS

3 · 2 · 7-15

ABOVE

FG: 7-15
3PT: 0-3
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 47.7
USG%: 22.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +4
PRA: 21

2026-01-15

BOS

HOME

29.7MIN

7POINTS

3 · 2 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 0-3
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 45.1
USG%: 11.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +1
PRA: 12

2026-01-13

PHX

HOME

27.4MIN

2POINTS

3 · 2 · 1-1

BELOW

FG: 1-1
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 100.0
USG%: 1.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -2
PRA: 7

2026-01-11

OKC

AWAY

27.6MIN

16POINTS

3 · 3 · 6-11

ABOVE

FG: 6-11
3PT: 1-4
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 62.7
USG%: 23.2
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: 0
PRA: 22

2026-01-10

IND

AWAY

16.3MIN

4POINTS

3 · 0 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-1
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 54.9
USG%: 11.1
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -20
PRA: 7

2026-01-06

MIN

AWAY

19.8MIN

7POINTS

2 · 1 · 3-9

BELOW

FG: 3-9
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/0
TS%: 38.9
USG%: 21.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -22
PRA: 10

2026-01-04

HOME

25.6MIN

16POINTS

3 · 6 · 7-15

ABOVE

FG: 7-15
3PT: 1-5
FT: 1-3
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 49.0
USG%: 27.7
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: +23
PRA: 25

2025-12-29

DEN

HOME

15.4MIN

3POINTS

2 · 0 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 30.0
USG%: 13.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +2
PRA: 5

2025-12-27

IND

HOME

27.5MIN

16POINTS

4 · 7 · 5-7

ABOVE

FG: 5-7
3PT: 1-1
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 83.0
USG%: 13.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +18
PRA: 27

2025-12-26

ATL

AWAY

29.7MIN

21POINTS

6 · 5 · 9-13

ABOVE

FG: 9-13
3PT: 3-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 80.8
USG%: 17.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +2
PRA: 32

2025-12-09

ORL

AWAY

10.5MIN

2POINTS

2 · 1 · 1-2

BELOW

FG: 1-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 12.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: -9
PRA: 5

2025-12-05

ORL

AWAY

18.8MIN

0POINTS

1 · 1 · 0-4

BELOW

FG: 0-4
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 9.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +1
PRA: 2

2025-12-03

DAL

AWAY

22.8MIN

4POINTS

0 · 3 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 0-4
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 31.6
USG%: 11.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -11
PRA: 7

2025-12-01

LAC

HOME

7.8MIN

5POINTS

1 · 2 · 1-1

BELOW

FG: 1-1
3PT: 1-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 133.0
USG%: 9.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +1
PRA: 8

2025-11-29

DET

HOME

24.7MIN

7POINTS

1 · 2 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 1-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 50.9
USG%: 10.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -8
PRA: 10

2025-11-26

MIL

HOME

21.0MIN

8POINTS

3 · 3 · 3-10

BELOW

FG: 3-10
3PT: 2-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 40.0
USG%: 25.4
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: +13
PRA: 14

2025-11-24

DAL

HOME

28.2MIN

9POINTS

2 · 6 · 4-10

BELOW

FG: 4-10
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 43.1
USG%: 16.6
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +13
PRA: 17

2025-11-23

PHI

AWAY

31.9MIN

6POINTS

7 · 8 · 2-13

BELOW

FG: 2-13
3PT: 0-6
FT: 2-5
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 19.7
USG%: 20.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +9
PRA: 21

2025-11-21

CHI

AWAY

26.1MIN

16POINTS

2 · 7 · 4-5

ABOVE

FG: 4-5
3PT: 2-3
FT: 6-6
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 104.7
USG%: 10.9
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 5
+/−: +29
PRA: 25

2025-11-19

HOME

28.3MIN

10POINTS

3 · 4 · 3-11

BELOW

FG: 3-11
3PT: 1-4
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 39.2
USG%: 20.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -4
PRA: 17

2025-11-17

HOME

26.3MIN

13POINTS

7 · 4 · 4-9

ABOVE

FG: 4-9
3PT: 2-4
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 60.4
USG%: 19.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -4
PRA: 24

2025-11-14

AWAY

24.0MIN

14POINTS

2 · 2 · 4-8

ABOVE

FG: 4-8
3PT: 3-6
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 75.1
USG%: 18.7
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -1
PRA: 18

2025-11-12

CLE

HOME

27.4MIN

9POINTS

0 · 4 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 2-3
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 60.5
USG%: 15.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: +3
PRA: 13

2025-11-10

CLE

HOME

26.5MIN

10POINTS

5 · 4 · 4-8

BELOW

FG: 4-8
3PT: 0-2
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 53.6
USG%: 18.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: -6
PRA: 19

2025-11-08

POR

HOME

27.5MIN

16POINTS

1 · 5 · 7-10

ABOVE

FG: 7-10
3PT: 1-3
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 76.6
USG%: 15.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -10
PRA: 22

2025-11-07

CHA

HOME

26.8MIN

19POINTS

4 · 2 · 8-11

ABOVE

FG: 8-11
3PT: 1-3
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 77.1
USG%: 19.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +8
PRA: 25

2025-11-05

DEN

AWAY

23.5MIN

6POINTS

3 · 3 · 1-4

BELOW

FG: 1-4
3PT: 0-3
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 52.1
USG%: 12.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -8
PRA: 12

2025-11-03

LAC

AWAY

23.8MIN

7POINTS

1 · 3 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 60.8
USG%: 12.4
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +11
PRA: 11

2025-11-02

LAL

AWAY

26.0MIN

17POINTS

5 · 6 · 6-10

ABOVE

FG: 6-10
3PT: 1-4
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 72.3
USG%: 20.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: -12
PRA: 28

2025-10-30

AWAY

26.3MIN

5POINTS

3 · 3 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 10.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -2
PRA: 11

2025-10-28

CHA

HOME

30.7MIN

17POINTS

5 · 3 · 6-10

ABOVE

FG: 6-10
3PT: 3-6
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 78.1
USG%: 14.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +7
PRA: 25

2025-10-26

HOME

4.9MIN

1POINTS

0 · 0 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-1
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 26.6
USG%: 16.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +2
PRA: 1

2025-10-24

MEM

AWAY

7.6MIN

8POINTS

2 · 0 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 2-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 80.0
USG%: 33.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -10
PRA: 10

2025-10-22

ORL

AWAY

3.8MIN

0POINTS

0 · 0 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 10.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -1
PRA: 0

every game on file — nothing hidden