DEN · 2026 season

Peyton Watson

54 games played · averaging 14.6 points. Each row is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 14.5 · POINTS · 2022–2026

HIT RATE15.7%40 of 254 games

INTERVAL11.8%–20.7%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+535at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+749if the rate is 11.8%

Peyton has cleared 14.5 points in 15.7% of 254 games since 2022, and in 50.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +535 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-04-01

UTAH

AWAY

9.4MIN

6POINTS

3 · 0 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 60.0
USG%: 26.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +6
PRA: 9

2026-03-29

HOME

22.3MIN

10POINTS

6 · 5 · 3-11

BELOW

FG: 3-11
3PT: 2-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 42.1
USG%: 29.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +11
PRA: 21

2026-03-27

UTAH

HOME

21.0MIN

7POINTS

5 · 4 · 2-10

BELOW

FG: 2-10
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 30.9
USG%: 28.5
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 4
PF: 4
+/−: -2
PRA: 16

2026-03-25

DAL

HOME

23.3MIN

21POINTS

4 · 3 · 7-10

ABOVE

FG: 7-10
3PT: 2-3
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 83.1
USG%: 23.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +3
PRA: 28

2026-03-22

POR

HOME

19.9MIN

14POINTS

6 · 3 · 6-13

BELOW

FG: 6-13
3PT: 1-5
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 50.4
USG%: 31.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +2
PRA: 23

2026-02-04

AWAY

33.3MIN

10POINTS

5 · 2 · 4-13

BELOW

FG: 4-13
3PT: 1-6
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 36.0
USG%: 19.8
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -4
PRA: 17

2026-02-03

DET

AWAY

37.8MIN

17POINTS

3 · 2 · 4-11

ABOVE

FG: 4-11
3PT: 0-1
FT: 9-11
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 53.7
USG%: 21.4
STL: 2
BLK: 3
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: +9
PRA: 22

2026-02-01

OKC

HOME

37.4MIN

29POINTS

5 · 3 · 11-17

ABOVE

FG: 11-17
3PT: 5-7
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 77.3
USG%: 27.4
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: -9
PRA: 37

2026-01-30

LAC

HOME

35.3MIN

21POINTS

4 · 3 · 9-17

ABOVE

FG: 9-17
3PT: 2-5
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 58.7
USG%: 28.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: +22
PRA: 28

2026-01-29

BKN

HOME

34.2MIN

19POINTS

2 · 3 · 7-15

ABOVE

FG: 7-15
3PT: 2-3
FT: 3-6
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 53.9
USG%: 25.5
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: 0
PRA: 24

2026-01-27

DET

HOME

37.0MIN

13POINTS

3 · 3 · 6-20

BELOW

FG: 6-20
3PT: 1-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 32.5
USG%: 27.4
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: -12
PRA: 19

2026-01-22

WAS

AWAY

40.0MIN

35POINTS

8 · 3 · 10-16

ABOVE

FG: 10-16
3PT: 6-8
FT: 9-10
OREB/DREB: 1/7
TS%: 85.8
USG%: 24.4
STL: 2
BLK: 4
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +13
PRA: 46

2026-01-20

LAL

HOME

37.8MIN

18POINTS

5 · 3 · 7-17

ABOVE

FG: 7-17
3PT: 4-8
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 52.9
USG%: 25.3
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: -6
PRA: 26

2026-01-18

CHA

HOME

28.8MIN

11POINTS

4 · 0 · 4-12

BELOW

FG: 4-12
3PT: 0-4
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 40.0
USG%: 27.7
STL: 1
BLK: 3
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -29
PRA: 15

2026-01-17

WAS

HOME

35.3MIN

21POINTS

5 · 2 · 8-14

ABOVE

FG: 8-14
3PT: 1-2
FT: 4-8
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 59.9
USG%: 24.8
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +5
PRA: 28

2026-01-14

DAL

AWAY

30.7MIN

18POINTS

5 · 2 · 6-12

ABOVE

FG: 6-12
3PT: 2-5
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 63.4
USG%: 24.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +2
PRA: 25

2026-01-13

AWAY

39.3MIN

31POINTS

7 · 5 · 11-16

ABOVE

FG: 11-16
3PT: 1-4
FT: 8-9
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 77.7
USG%: 25.5
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +15
PRA: 43

2026-01-11

MIL

HOME

39.2MIN

19POINTS

8 · 6 · 7-19

ABOVE

FG: 7-19
3PT: 4-6
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 47.8
USG%: 26.0
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +2
PRA: 33

2026-01-09

ATL

HOME

34.0MIN

25POINTS

11 · 4 · 9-19

ABOVE

FG: 9-19
3PT: 2-4
FT: 5-7
OREB/DREB: 2/9
TS%: 56.6
USG%: 38.3
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 5
PF: 3
+/−: +2
PRA: 40

2026-01-07

BOS

AWAY

37.3MIN

30POINTS

6 · 2 · 10-15

ABOVE

FG: 10-15
3PT: 6-7
FT: 4-8
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 81.0
USG%: 27.7
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 4
PF: 5
+/−: +4
PRA: 38

2026-01-05

PHI

AWAY

44.2MIN

24POINTS

7 · 4 · 7-13

ABOVE

FG: 7-13
3PT: 2-3
FT: 8-10
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 69.0
USG%: 25.4
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 6
PF: 0
+/−: +2
PRA: 35

2026-01-04

BKN

AWAY

28.6MIN

23POINTS

4 · 2 · 8-14

ABOVE

FG: 8-14
3PT: 1-4
FT: 6-7
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 67.3
USG%: 28.5
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: -9
PRA: 29

2026-01-02

CLE

AWAY

40.2MIN

21POINTS

4 · 3 · 9-22

ABOVE

FG: 9-22
3PT: 2-9
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 45.9
USG%: 27.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: -4
PRA: 28

2025-12-31

TOR

AWAY

36.0MIN

24POINTS

8 · 0 · 9-19

ABOVE

FG: 9-19
3PT: 1-6
FT: 5-7
OREB/DREB: 1/7
TS%: 54.3
USG%: 29.3
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +6
PRA: 32

2025-12-29

MIA

AWAY

31.7MIN

11POINTS

2 · 1 · 4-10

BELOW

FG: 4-10
3PT: 0-2
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 46.8
USG%: 17.8
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -9
PRA: 14

2025-12-27

ORL

AWAY

34.6MIN

15POINTS

5 · 0 · 6-9

ABOVE

FG: 6-9
3PT: 1-3
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 75.9
USG%: 13.1
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +11
PRA: 20

2025-12-25

MIN

HOME

42.2MIN

9POINTS

4 · 0 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 76.5
USG%: 7.5
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +15
PRA: 13

2025-12-23

DAL

AWAY

24.4MIN

4POINTS

2 · 1 · 0-3

BELOW

FG: 0-3
3PT: 0-2
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 42.0
USG%: 14.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: -9
PRA: 7

2025-12-22

UTAH

HOME

27.8MIN

20POINTS

3 · 2 · 7-9

ABOVE

FG: 7-9
3PT: 3-4
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 92.9
USG%: 16.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +18
PRA: 25

2025-12-15

HOU

HOME

5.9MIN

5POINTS

0 · 0 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 1-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 32.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -3
PRA: 5

2025-12-11

SAC

AWAY

22.8MIN

21POINTS

2 · 1 · 7-10

ABOVE

FG: 7-10
3PT: 2-3
FT: 5-8
OREB/DREB: 2/0
TS%: 77.7
USG%: 29.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +17
PRA: 24

2025-12-07

CHA

AWAY

30.4MIN

10POINTS

8 · 1 · 4-9

BELOW

FG: 4-9
3PT: 1-2
FT: 1-5
OREB/DREB: 1/7
TS%: 44.6
USG%: 23.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 0
+/−: +10
PRA: 19

2025-12-05

ATL

AWAY

28.3MIN

9POINTS

6 · 2 · 4-11

BELOW

FG: 4-11
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 40.9
USG%: 16.3
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -9
PRA: 17

2025-12-03

IND

AWAY

36.4MIN

11POINTS

7 · 0 · 3-8

BELOW

FG: 3-8
3PT: 1-3
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 53.9
USG%: 12.9
STL: 1
BLK: 3
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +22
PRA: 18

2025-12-01

DAL

HOME

34.5MIN

15POINTS

5 · 3 · 7-14

ABOVE

FG: 7-14
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 53.6
USG%: 17.1
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -5
PRA: 23

2025-11-29

PHX

AWAY

27.6MIN

11POINTS

5 · 3 · 3-4

BELOW

FG: 3-4
3PT: 1-1
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 95.5
USG%: 9.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +17
PRA: 19

2025-11-28

HOME

33.7MIN

15POINTS

6 · 3 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 1-5
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 58.8
USG%: 16.3
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +4
PRA: 24

2025-11-24

MEM

AWAY

32.9MIN

27POINTS

5 · 3 · 11-22

ABOVE

FG: 11-22
3PT: 5-12
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 61.4
USG%: 30.2
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +3
PRA: 35

2025-11-22

SAC

HOME

34.2MIN

15POINTS

7 · 1 · 6-10

ABOVE

FG: 6-10
3PT: 3-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 75.0
USG%: 15.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: +3
PRA: 23

2025-11-21

HOU

AWAY

34.2MIN

9POINTS

10 · 3 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 2/8
TS%: 66.6
USG%: 13.4
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +15
PRA: 22

2025-11-19

AWAY

34.4MIN

32POINTS

12 · 3 · 13-19

ABOVE

FG: 13-19
3PT: 5-9
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 3/9
TS%: 82.3
USG%: 28.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 4
+/−: +3
PRA: 47

2025-11-17

CHI

HOME

34.0MIN

5POINTS

3 · 1 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 1-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 6.1
STL: 1
BLK: 3
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +5
PRA: 9

2025-11-15

MIN

AWAY

34.1MIN

12POINTS

3 · 0 · 5-11

BELOW

FG: 5-11
3PT: 0-1
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 47.0
USG%: 17.3
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +11
PRA: 15

2025-11-12

LAC

AWAY

22.1MIN

2POINTS

2 · 1 · 1-4

BELOW

FG: 1-4
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 20.5
USG%: 9.6
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -1
PRA: 5

2025-11-11

SAC

AWAY

18.3MIN

0POINTS

3 · 0 · 0-3

BELOW

FG: 0-3
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 9.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 6
+/−: -4
PRA: 3

2025-11-08

IND

HOME

27.2MIN

16POINTS

7 · 1 · 7-13

ABOVE

FG: 7-13
3PT: 1-4
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 4/3
TS%: 59.5
USG%: 21.4
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +1
PRA: 24

2025-11-07

HOME

24.3MIN

10POINTS

3 · 1 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 1-1
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 64.4
USG%: 15.2
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +13
PRA: 14

2025-11-05

MIA

HOME

17.7MIN

2POINTS

10 · 3 · 0-4

BELOW

FG: 0-4
3PT: 0-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/8
TS%: 20.5
USG%: 14.4
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +2
PRA: 15

2025-11-03

SAC

HOME

16.2MIN

0POINTS

1 · 1 · 0-4

BELOW

FG: 0-4
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 10.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -2
PRA: 2

2025-10-31

POR

AWAY

22.6MIN

10POINTS

4 · 1 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 0-2
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 3/1
TS%: 51.9
USG%: 22.8
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -8
PRA: 15

2025-10-29

HOME

22.7MIN

5POINTS

5 · 5 · 2-2

BELOW

FG: 2-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 102.5
USG%: 4.7
STL: 1
BLK: 3
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +28
PRA: 15

2025-10-27

MIN

AWAY

24.7MIN

12POINTS

2 · 1 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 2-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 87.2
USG%: 13.8
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: +14
PRA: 15

2025-10-25

PHX

HOME

19.8MIN

7POINTS

2 · 1 · 3-4

BELOW

FG: 3-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 78.8
USG%: 13.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +5
PRA: 10

2025-10-23

AWAY

16.0MIN

2POINTS

2 · 1 · 0-0

BELOW

FG: 0-0
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 113.6
USG%: 8.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: 0
PRA: 5

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