CLE · 2026 season

Sam Merrill

69 games played, 17 in the postseason · averaging 11.5 points. Each row is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 11.5 · POINTS · 2020–2026

HIT RATE24.6%66 of 268 games

INTERVAL19.9%–30.1%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+306at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+404if the rate is 19.9%

Sam has cleared 11.5 points in 24.6% of 268 games since 2020, and in 20.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +306 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-05-25

HOME

17.6MIN

5POINTS

1 · 1 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 1-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 12.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -13
PRA: 7

2026-05-23

HOME

23.5MIN

6POINTS

3 · 1 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 2-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 60.0
USG%: 9.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -1
PRA: 10

2026-05-21

AWAY

23.2MIN

4POINTS

0 · 0 · 1-8

BELOW

FG: 1-8
3PT: 0-7
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 20.5
USG%: 21.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -8
PRA: 4

2026-05-19

AWAY

28.3MIN

12POINTS

1 · 2 · 4-9

ABOVE

FG: 4-9
3PT: 3-8
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 63.6
USG%: 14.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 5
+/−: -17
PRA: 15

2026-05-17

DET

AWAY

25.3MIN

23POINTS

1 · 2 · 7-10

ABOVE

FG: 7-10
3PT: 5-8
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 97.8
USG%: 22.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +22
PRA: 26

2026-05-15

DET

HOME

20.5MIN

10POINTS

1 · 1 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 2-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 72.7
USG%: 14.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -10
PRA: 12

2026-05-13

DET

AWAY

21.1MIN

6POINTS

0 · 1 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 2-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 60.0
USG%: 11.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -7
PRA: 7

2026-05-11

DET

HOME

16.3MIN

6POINTS

1 · 2 · 2-8

BELOW

FG: 2-8
3PT: 2-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 37.5
USG%: 22.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +6
PRA: 9

2026-05-09

DET

HOME

14.2MIN

7POINTS

0 · 0 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 1-3
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 71.7
USG%: 16.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +4
PRA: 7

2026-05-05

DET

AWAY

6.7MIN

0POINTS

0 · 1 · 0-0

BELOW

FG: 0-0
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 6.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: -10
PRA: 1

2026-05-03

TOR

HOME

23.2MIN

13POINTS

3 · 2 · 4-8

ABOVE

FG: 4-8
3PT: 3-7
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 73.2
USG%: 15.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +16
PRA: 18

2026-05-01

TOR

AWAY

17.6MIN

2POINTS

1 · 1 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 20.0
USG%: 14.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -6
PRA: 4

2026-04-29

TOR

HOME

23.2MIN

9POINTS

1 · 2 · 2-3

BELOW

FG: 2-3
3PT: 2-2
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 94.5
USG%: 13.0
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: +19
PRA: 12

2026-04-26

TOR

AWAY

18.9MIN

14POINTS

0 · 0 · 5-9

ABOVE

FG: 5-9
3PT: 3-7
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 74.2
USG%: 21.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +4
PRA: 14

2026-04-23

TOR

AWAY

17.9MIN

3POINTS

3 · 0 · 1-2

BELOW

FG: 1-2
3PT: 1-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/0
TS%: 75.0
USG%: 4.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -5
PRA: 6

2026-04-20

TOR

HOME

20.4MIN

5POINTS

1 · 1 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 1-5
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 38.8
USG%: 16.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +1
PRA: 7

2026-04-18

TOR

HOME

20.6MIN

7POINTS

4 · 2 · 1-4

BELOW

FG: 1-4
3PT: 1-3
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 60.8
USG%: 12.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +10
PRA: 13

2026-04-08

ATL

HOME

27.2MIN

6POINTS

0 · 3 · 2-3

BELOW

FG: 2-3
3PT: 2-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 100.0
USG%: 4.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 5
+/−: 0
PRA: 9

2026-04-06

MEM

AWAY

28.0MIN

21POINTS

2 · 2 · 7-16

ABOVE

FG: 7-16
3PT: 4-11
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 59.1
USG%: 26.0
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -5
PRA: 25

2026-04-02

AWAY

28.2MIN

3POINTS

2 · 5 · 1-6

BELOW

FG: 1-6
3PT: 1-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 25.0
USG%: 12.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +12
PRA: 10

2026-03-30

UTAH

AWAY

28.2MIN

9POINTS

4 · 3 · 4-14

BELOW

FG: 4-14
3PT: 0-8
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 31.2
USG%: 21.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +13
PRA: 16

2026-03-27

MIA

HOME

26.7MIN

10POINTS

3 · 4 · 3-9

BELOW

FG: 3-9
3PT: 2-7
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 50.6
USG%: 14.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +25
PRA: 17

2026-03-25

MIA

HOME

28.7MIN

18POINTS

2 · 4 · 6-13

ABOVE

FG: 6-13
3PT: 4-10
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 64.8
USG%: 26.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -22
PRA: 24

2026-03-24

ORL

HOME

32.9MIN

19POINTS

4 · 1 · 6-11

ABOVE

FG: 6-11
3PT: 2-6
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 69.6
USG%: 19.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +4
PRA: 24

2026-03-21

AWAY

32.1MIN

15POINTS

10 · 2 · 5-9

ABOVE

FG: 5-9
3PT: 3-7
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/9
TS%: 75.9
USG%: 14.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +5
PRA: 27

2026-03-19

CHI

AWAY

31.2MIN

13POINTS

1 · 3 · 5-12

ABOVE

FG: 5-12
3PT: 3-8
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 54.2
USG%: 15.6
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +1
PRA: 17

2026-03-17

MIL

AWAY

28.0MIN

17POINTS

6 · 2 · 6-12

ABOVE

FG: 6-12
3PT: 3-8
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 66.0
USG%: 20.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +22
PRA: 25

2026-03-11

ORL

AWAY

30.2MIN

13POINTS

4 · 2 · 5-8

ABOVE

FG: 5-8
3PT: 2-5
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 73.2
USG%: 12.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -1
PRA: 19

2026-03-09

PHI

HOME

20.6MIN

2POINTS

3 · 5 · 1-6

BELOW

FG: 1-6
3PT: 0-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 16.7
USG%: 13.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +5
PRA: 10

2026-03-08

BOS

HOME

29.1MIN

5POINTS

5 · 4 · 2-9

BELOW

FG: 2-9
3PT: 1-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 27.8
USG%: 14.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 5
+/−: -1
PRA: 14

2026-03-03

DET

HOME

27.0MIN

9POINTS

0 · 2 · 3-10

BELOW

FG: 3-10
3PT: 3-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 45.0
USG%: 16.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -6
PRA: 11

2026-03-01

BKN

AWAY

27.4MIN

15POINTS

1 · 2 · 5-8

ABOVE

FG: 5-8
3PT: 4-6
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 88.9
USG%: 16.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +20
PRA: 18

2026-02-27

DET

AWAY

36.3MIN

20POINTS

1 · 3 · 6-14

ABOVE

FG: 6-14
3PT: 4-10
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 63.5
USG%: 21.1
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -13
PRA: 24

2026-02-25

MIL

AWAY

33.7MIN

14POINTS

5 · 2 · 6-13

ABOVE

FG: 6-13
3PT: 2-8
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 50.4
USG%: 21.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: -2
PRA: 21

2026-02-24

HOME

21.0MIN

0POINTS

1 · 1 · 0-4

BELOW

FG: 0-4
3PT: 0-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 10.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +13
PRA: 2

2026-02-22

OKC

AWAY

28.5MIN

20POINTS

3 · 0 · 7-12

ABOVE

FG: 7-12
3PT: 6-10
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 83.3
USG%: 17.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +6
PRA: 23

2026-02-20

CHA

AWAY

24.3MIN

10POINTS

2 · 2 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 2-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 83.3
USG%: 11.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -14
PRA: 14

2026-02-19

BKN

HOME

22.2MIN

3POINTS

3 · 3 · 1-4

BELOW

FG: 1-4
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 37.5
USG%: 8.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +13
PRA: 9

2026-02-11

WAS

HOME

25.0MIN

32POINTS

5 · 1 · 11-12

ABOVE

FG: 11-12
3PT: 9-10
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 128.6
USG%: 21.5
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +22
PRA: 38

2026-02-09

DEN

AWAY

25.1MIN

9POINTS

2 · 1 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 3-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 75.0
USG%: 11.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +13
PRA: 12

2026-02-07

SAC

AWAY

23.9MIN

2POINTS

1 · 2 · 0-6

BELOW

FG: 0-6
3PT: 0-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 14.5
USG%: 14.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -8
PRA: 5

2026-02-04

LAC

AWAY

21.1MIN

11POINTS

1 · 0 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 3-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 91.7
USG%: 14.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +21
PRA: 12

2026-02-01

POR

AWAY

29.4MIN

22POINTS

2 · 4 · 7-9

ABOVE

FG: 7-9
3PT: 6-8
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 111.3
USG%: 15.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +25
PRA: 28

2026-01-30

PHX

AWAY

18.8MIN

10POINTS

2 · 2 · 4-12

BELOW

FG: 4-12
3PT: 2-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 41.7
USG%: 26.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -19
PRA: 14

2026-01-28

LAL

HOME

23.9MIN

4POINTS

1 · 4 · 1-4

BELOW

FG: 1-4
3PT: 1-3
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 41.0
USG%: 10.7
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: +31
PRA: 9

2026-01-14

PHI

AWAY

9.7MIN

3POINTS

3 · 0 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 30.0
USG%: 21.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +5
PRA: 6

2026-01-12

UTAH

HOME

27.7MIN

14POINTS

2 · 3 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 3-8
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 61.2
USG%: 19.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 5
+/−: -10
PRA: 19

2026-01-10

MIN

HOME

25.5MIN

20POINTS

2 · 1 · 5-7

ABOVE

FG: 5-7
3PT: 5-6
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 108.7
USG%: 18.8
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +20
PRA: 23

2026-01-08

MIN

AWAY

30.8MIN

22POINTS

2 · 3 · 7-13

ABOVE

FG: 7-13
3PT: 5-11
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 2/0
TS%: 76.8
USG%: 19.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +6
PRA: 27

2026-01-06

IND

AWAY

31.4MIN

19POINTS

4 · 2 · 6-12

ABOVE

FG: 6-12
3PT: 6-10
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 73.8
USG%: 18.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +5
PRA: 25

2026-01-04

DET

HOME

27.2MIN

15POINTS

3 · 2 · 5-8

ABOVE

FG: 5-8
3PT: 5-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 93.8
USG%: 16.0
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 6
+/−: 0
PRA: 20

2025-12-31

PHX

HOME

22.8MIN

16POINTS

1 · 1 · 6-14

ABOVE

FG: 6-14
3PT: 4-9
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 57.1
USG%: 28.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +14
PRA: 18

2025-12-29

AWAY

25.8MIN

5POINTS

0 · 1 · 1-6

BELOW

FG: 1-6
3PT: 1-6
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 36.3
USG%: 12.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -4
PRA: 6

2025-12-27

HOU

AWAY

25.4MIN

13POINTS

3 · 3 · 5-8

ABOVE

FG: 5-8
3PT: 3-6
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 77.0
USG%: 15.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: -24
PRA: 19

2025-12-25

AWAY

29.3MIN

11POINTS

5 · 1 · 4-11

BELOW

FG: 4-11
3PT: 2-8
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 46.3
USG%: 19.2
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +3
PRA: 17

2025-12-23

HOME

25.7MIN

22POINTS

6 · 7 · 7-12

ABOVE

FG: 7-12
3PT: 6-10
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 85.4
USG%: 21.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +18
PRA: 35

2025-12-22

CHA

HOME

25.9MIN

4POINTS

1 · 5 · 2-7

BELOW

FG: 2-7
3PT: 0-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 28.6
USG%: 12.0
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +6
PRA: 10

2025-11-17

MIL

HOME

27.9MIN

20POINTS

5 · 0 · 7-10

ABOVE

FG: 7-10
3PT: 6-9
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 100.0
USG%: 18.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +4
PRA: 25

2025-11-15

MEM

HOME

27.2MIN

13POINTS

4 · 1 · 5-9

ABOVE

FG: 5-9
3PT: 2-6
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 65.8
USG%: 18.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -4
PRA: 18

2025-11-13

TOR

HOME

27.2MIN

12POINTS

2 · 3 · 4-11

ABOVE

FG: 4-11
3PT: 3-9
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 52.4
USG%: 17.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -2
PRA: 17

2025-11-12

MIA

AWAY

20.6MIN

5POINTS

0 · 3 · 1-10

BELOW

FG: 1-10
3PT: 1-8
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 23.0
USG%: 19.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -8
PRA: 8

2025-11-10

MIA

AWAY

32.6MIN

12POINTS

2 · 2 · 4-16

ABOVE

FG: 4-16
3PT: 4-16
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 37.5
USG%: 18.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -7
PRA: 16

2025-11-08

CHI

HOME

27.5MIN

8POINTS

2 · 8 · 3-8

BELOW

FG: 3-8
3PT: 2-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/0
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 13.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +6
PRA: 18

2025-11-07

WAS

AWAY

18.4MIN

14POINTS

2 · 2 · 5-6

ABOVE

FG: 5-6
3PT: 4-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 116.7
USG%: 11.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +10
PRA: 18

2025-11-05

PHI

HOME

26.8MIN

14POINTS

0 · 0 · 4-6

ABOVE

FG: 4-6
3PT: 4-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 101.7
USG%: 12.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +1
PRA: 14

2025-10-27

DET

AWAY

18.0MIN

11POINTS

1 · 1 · 4-7

BELOW

FG: 4-7
3PT: 3-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 78.6
USG%: 15.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +13
PRA: 13

2025-10-26

MIL

HOME

30.3MIN

17POINTS

3 · 1 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 4-9
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 69.0
USG%: 16.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +17
PRA: 21

2025-10-24

BKN

AWAY

26.3MIN

22POINTS

1 · 5 · 6-11

ABOVE

FG: 6-11
3PT: 6-10
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 86.2
USG%: 26.7
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 4
+/−: +14
PRA: 28

2025-10-22

AWAY

28.4MIN

19POINTS

3 · 1 · 6-11

ABOVE

FG: 6-11
3PT: 5-10
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 80.0
USG%: 20.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 6
+/−: -1
PRA: 23

every game on file — nothing hidden