SAS · G · 2026 season

Stephon Castle

Next game: at CHI, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:36 UTC

Projected 31.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 15.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 14 books

Case for the over

CHI have allowed 129.3 points a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 81.9 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): OG Anunoby (NYK) 18 and 23 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28); Payton Pritchard (BOS) 30 vs 9.8 in his other games (Oct 30); Derrick White (BOS) 9 vs 13.3 in his other games (Oct 30) and 4 more; mean +5.4 points against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 14.2 points over 10 games, below the 15.5 line.
His last 3 games average 12.3 points, below the 15.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 11.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 13.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Rebounds 4.5 · Over -153 / Under +114 · 12 books

Case for the over

Over 4.5 in 8 of 10 games this season (newest first: 8, 7, 3, 10, 5, 6, 6, 5, 4, 7); season average 6.1, last 3 average 6.0.
Projected for 31.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 28.8 a game so far; 0.212 rebounds per minute projects 6.6, +46% against the 4.5 line.
CHI have allowed 49.7 rebounds a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 23.6 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI miss 52.2 shots a game, the 2nd-most of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 4 and 4 vs 3.4 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 7 and 11 vs 6.0 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 5 and 6 vs 5.2 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28) and 8 more; mean +1.0 rebounds against their own averages over 14 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 56% (12 books at 4.5).

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Assists 5.5 · Over -120 / Under -111 · 14 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 6.3 assists, above the 5.5 line. a hint, not a finding
He has assisted on 32.8% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, up from 27.6% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
CHI have allowed 29.7 assists a game over 9 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 21.1 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 48.5% shooting from the field, the 6th-highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 7 and 11 vs 4.6 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 4 and 5 vs 3.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Payton Pritchard (BOS) 3 vs 4.0 in his other games (Oct 30) and 6 more; mean +1.2 assists against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 5.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 7, 5, 7, 3, 4, 4, 8, 5, 8, 1); season average 5.2.

Threes 1.5 · Over -106 / Under -125 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 0, 2, 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 3, 3, 5); season average 1.9.
Projected for 31.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 28.8 a game so far; 0.066 threes per minute projects 2.0, +37% against the 1.5 line.
CHI have allowed 14.9 threes made a game over 9 games, the 3rd-most of 30; to guards, 11.2 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 3 and 1 vs 2.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 2 and 4 vs 1.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 1 and 2 vs 2.4 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28) and 7 more; mean +0.2 threes made against their own averages over 13 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 1.0 threes made, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 3.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 5.9 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Pts+Reb+Ast 26.5 · Over -119 / Under -111 · 10 books

Case for the over

Projected for 31.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 28.8 a game so far; 0.887 PRA per minute projects 27.5, +4% against the 26.5 line.
CHI have allowed 208.7 points + rebounds + assists a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 126.6 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 38 and 41 vs 34.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 40 and 41 vs 29.9 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 25 and 30 vs 23.6 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28) and 8 more; mean +6.7 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 14 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 25.5 points + rebounds + assists over 10 games, below the 26.5 line.
His last 3 games average 24.7 points + rebounds + assists, below the 26.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 11.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 13.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Pts+Reb 21.5 · Over -110 / Under -120 · 5 books

Case for the over

CHI have allowed 179.0 points + rebounds a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 105.4 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 31 and 30 vs 30.1 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 36 and 36 vs 26.2 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 23 and 29 vs 21.0 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28) and 8 more; mean +5.9 points + rebounds against their own averages over 14 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 21.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 21, 22, 27, 21, 6, 20, 20, 23, 31); season average 20.3, last 3 average 18.3.
Shot volume is down: 11.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 13.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Pts+Ast 21.5 · Over -117 / Under -114 · 8 books

Case for the over

CHI have allowed 159.0 points + assists a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 103.0 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Jaylen Brown (PHI) 33 and 30 vs 23.9 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 20 and 24 vs 18.4 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28); Payton Pritchard (BOS) 33 vs 13.8 in his other games (Oct 30) and 7 more; mean +6.0 points + assists against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 21.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 11, 19, 26, 20, 20, 4, 22, 20, 27, 25); season average 19.4, last 3 average 18.7.
Shot volume is down: 11.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 13.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Reb+Ast 10.5 · Over -125 / Under -105 · 9 books

Case for the over

He averages 11.3 rebounds + assists over 10 games, above the 10.5 line.
His last 3 games average 12.3 rebounds + assists, above the 10.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 31.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 28.8 a game so far; 0.393 RA per minute projects 12.2, +16% against the 10.5 line.
CHI have allowed 79.3 rebounds + assists a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 44.7 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI miss 52.2 shots a game, the 2nd-most of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 11 and 15 vs 8.0 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 11 and 16 vs 9.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 7 and 7 vs 7.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28) and 8 more; mean +1.8 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 14 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Steals 0.5 · Over -186 / Under +135 · 1 book

Case for the over

He averages 0.8 steals over 10 games, above the 0.5 line.
Projected for 31.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 28.8 a game so far; 0.028 steals per minute projects 0.9, +73% against the 0.5 line.
To guards, CHI have allowed 6.0 steals a game over 9 games, the 2nd-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 0 and 2 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 1 and 1 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 3 and 0 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28) and 8 more; mean +0.1 steals against their own averages over 14 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 60% (1 book at 0.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 0.3 steals, below the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

10 games played · averaging 14.2 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 14.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026

HIT RATE63.3%114 of 180 games

INTERVAL56.1%–70.0%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN-173at that rate

AT THE FLOOR-128if the rate is 56.1%

Stephon has cleared 14.5 points in 63.3% of 180 games since 2024, and in 60.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs -173 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

PHX

AWAY

29.8MIN

4POINTS

8 · 7 · 2-10

BELOW

FG: 2-10
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 4/4
TS%: 18.4
USG%: 18.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +13
PRA: 19

2026-11-07

POR

AWAY

24.1MIN

14POINTS

7 · 5 · 5-12

BELOW

FG: 5-12
3PT: 2-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 3/4
TS%: 54.3
USG%: 24.8
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +19
PRA: 26

2026-11-06

SAC

AWAY

28.4MIN

19POINTS

3 · 7 · 7-13

ABOVE

FG: 7-13
3PT: 1-3
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 25.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -2
PRA: 29

2026-11-04

DAL

HOME

35.2MIN

17POINTS

10 · 3 · 6-20

ABOVE

FG: 6-20
3PT: 2-9
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 3/7
TS%: 39.1
USG%: 26.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +1
PRA: 30

2026-11-02

UTAH

HOME

25.7MIN

16POINTS

5 · 4 · 7-16

ABOVE

FG: 7-16
3PT: 2-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 25.8
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +24
PRA: 25

2026-10-31

MIN

HOME

22.2MIN

0POINTS

6 · 4 · 0-4

BELOW

FG: 0-4
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 13.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: -2
PRA: 10

2026-10-28

UTAH

AWAY

38.3MIN

14POINTS

6 · 8 · 6-13

BELOW

FG: 6-13
3PT: 1-4
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 4/2
TS%: 50.4
USG%: 19.3
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +3
PRA: 28

2026-10-27

SAC

HOME

27.2MIN

15POINTS

5 · 5 · 4-11

ABOVE

FG: 4-11
3PT: 3-8
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 58.8
USG%: 24.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +14
PRA: 25

2026-10-24

DAL

AWAY

28.2MIN

19POINTS

4 · 8 · 8-18

ABOVE

FG: 8-18
3PT: 3-8
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 52.8
USG%: 29.7
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: +12
PRA: 31

2026-10-20

OKC

HOME

28.4MIN

24POINTS

7 · 1 · 9-21

ABOVE

FG: 9-21
3PT: 5-12
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 2/5
TS%: 56.0
USG%: 35.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: -2
PRA: 32

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at CHI, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:36 UTC

Projected 31.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 15.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 14 books

Case for the over

CHI have allowed 129.3 points a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 81.9 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): OG Anunoby (NYK) 18 and 23 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28); Payton Pritchard (BOS) 30 vs 9.8 in his other games (Oct 30); Derrick White (BOS) 9 vs 13.3 in his other games (Oct 30) and 4 more; mean +5.4 points against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 14.2 points over 10 games, below the 15.5 line.
His last 3 games average 12.3 points, below the 15.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 11.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 13.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Rebounds 4.5 · Over -153 / Under +114 · 12 books

Case for the over

Over 4.5 in 8 of 10 games this season (newest first: 8, 7, 3, 10, 5, 6, 6, 5, 4, 7); season average 6.1, last 3 average 6.0.
Projected for 31.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 28.8 a game so far; 0.212 rebounds per minute projects 6.6, +46% against the 4.5 line.
CHI have allowed 49.7 rebounds a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 23.6 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI miss 52.2 shots a game, the 2nd-most of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 4 and 4 vs 3.4 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 7 and 11 vs 6.0 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 5 and 6 vs 5.2 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28) and 8 more; mean +1.0 rebounds against their own averages over 14 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 56% (12 books at 4.5).

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Assists 5.5 · Over -120 / Under -111 · 14 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 6.3 assists, above the 5.5 line. a hint, not a finding
He has assisted on 32.8% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, up from 27.6% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
CHI have allowed 29.7 assists a game over 9 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 21.1 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 48.5% shooting from the field, the 6th-highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 7 and 11 vs 4.6 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 4 and 5 vs 3.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Payton Pritchard (BOS) 3 vs 4.0 in his other games (Oct 30) and 6 more; mean +1.2 assists against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 5.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 7, 5, 7, 3, 4, 4, 8, 5, 8, 1); season average 5.2.

Threes 1.5 · Over -106 / Under -125 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 0, 2, 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 3, 3, 5); season average 1.9.
Projected for 31.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 28.8 a game so far; 0.066 threes per minute projects 2.0, +37% against the 1.5 line.
CHI have allowed 14.9 threes made a game over 9 games, the 3rd-most of 30; to guards, 11.2 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 3 and 1 vs 2.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 2 and 4 vs 1.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 1 and 2 vs 2.4 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28) and 7 more; mean +0.2 threes made against their own averages over 13 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 1.0 threes made, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 3.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 5.9 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Pts+Reb+Ast 26.5 · Over -119 / Under -111 · 10 books

Case for the over

Projected for 31.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 28.8 a game so far; 0.887 PRA per minute projects 27.5, +4% against the 26.5 line.
CHI have allowed 208.7 points + rebounds + assists a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 126.6 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 38 and 41 vs 34.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 40 and 41 vs 29.9 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 25 and 30 vs 23.6 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28) and 8 more; mean +6.7 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 14 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 25.5 points + rebounds + assists over 10 games, below the 26.5 line.
His last 3 games average 24.7 points + rebounds + assists, below the 26.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 11.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 13.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Pts+Reb 21.5 · Over -110 / Under -120 · 5 books

Case for the over

CHI have allowed 179.0 points + rebounds a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 105.4 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 31 and 30 vs 30.1 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 36 and 36 vs 26.2 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 23 and 29 vs 21.0 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28) and 8 more; mean +5.9 points + rebounds against their own averages over 14 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 21.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 21, 22, 27, 21, 6, 20, 20, 23, 31); season average 20.3, last 3 average 18.3.
Shot volume is down: 11.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 13.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Pts+Ast 21.5 · Over -117 / Under -114 · 8 books

Case for the over

CHI have allowed 159.0 points + assists a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 103.0 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Jaylen Brown (PHI) 33 and 30 vs 23.9 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 20 and 24 vs 18.4 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28); Payton Pritchard (BOS) 33 vs 13.8 in his other games (Oct 30) and 7 more; mean +6.0 points + assists against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 21.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 11, 19, 26, 20, 20, 4, 22, 20, 27, 25); season average 19.4, last 3 average 18.7.
Shot volume is down: 11.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 13.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Reb+Ast 10.5 · Over -125 / Under -105 · 9 books

Case for the over

He averages 11.3 rebounds + assists over 10 games, above the 10.5 line.
His last 3 games average 12.3 rebounds + assists, above the 10.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 31.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 28.8 a game so far; 0.393 RA per minute projects 12.2, +16% against the 10.5 line.
CHI have allowed 79.3 rebounds + assists a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 44.7 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI miss 52.2 shots a game, the 2nd-most of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 11 and 15 vs 8.0 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 11 and 16 vs 9.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 7 and 7 vs 7.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28) and 8 more; mean +1.8 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 14 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Steals 0.5 · Over -186 / Under +135 · 1 book

Case for the over

He averages 0.8 steals over 10 games, above the 0.5 line.
Projected for 31.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 28.8 a game so far; 0.028 steals per minute projects 0.9, +73% against the 0.5 line.
To guards, CHI have allowed 6.0 steals a game over 9 games, the 2nd-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 19.4% to 29.4%, 20.7 to 36.7 min a game, at least 23.0 min in the game): Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 0 and 2 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Jaylen Brown (PHI) 1 and 1 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); OG Anunoby (NYK) 3 and 0 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28) and 8 more; mean +0.1 steals against their own averages over 14 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 60% (1 book at 0.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 0.3 steals, below the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding