HOU · F · 2026 season

Tari Eason

Next game: vs GSW, Thu 02:30 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 20:32 UTC · lines as of 20:18 UTC

Projected 20.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 8.5 · Over -110 / Under -123 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 8.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 2, 9, 13, 8, 11, 5, 13, 19, 2 (3.1 min)); season average 9.4.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
To forwards, GSW have allowed 59.6 points a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 7.7 points, below the 8.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.400 points per minute projects 8.0, -6% against the 8.5 line.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Karlo Matković (NOP) 4 vs 9.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 10 vs 5.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Bennedict Mathurin (NOP) 6 vs 6.0 in his other games (Nov 9) and 15 more; mean -0.6 points against their own averages over 19 games from 18 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 4.5 · Over -136 / Under +102 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 4.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 5, 7, 6, 4, 3, 13, 9, 8, 3, 1 (3.1 min)); season average 5.9, last 3 average 6.0.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.251 rebounds per minute projects 5.0, +12% against the 4.5 line.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Saddiq Bey (NOP) 0 vs 4.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Karlo Matković (NOP) 6 vs 4.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 6 vs 2.8 in his other games (Nov 9) and 15 more; mean +0.8 rebounds against their own averages over 21 games from 18 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (13 books at 4.5).

Case for the under

GSW have allowed 41.5 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW miss 45.2 shots a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 1.5 · Over +117 / Under -170 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 1, 2, 0, 0 (3.1 min)); last 3 average 1.7.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
He has assisted on 12.5% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3 games (2 with on-court counts), up from 8.7% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Saddiq Bey (NOP) 4 vs 2.2 in his other games (Nov 9); Karlo Matković (NOP) 2 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 1 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 9) and 15 more; mean +0.4 assists against their own averages over 20 games from 18 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.064 assists per minute projects 1.3, -15% against the 1.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 58% (5 books at 1.5).

Threes 0.5 · Over -223 / Under +164 · 10 books

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 0, 1, 3, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 (3.1 min)); season average 1.0, last 3 average 1.0.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.043 threes per minute projects 0.9, +70% against the 0.5 line.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
Shot volume is up: 4.3 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 3.6 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To forwards, GSW have allowed 7.0 threes made a game over 11 games, the 7th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 65% (10 books at 0.5).

Case for the under

Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Saddiq Bey (NOP) 1 vs 1.8 in his other games (Nov 9); Karlo Matković (NOP) 0 vs 1.8 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 2 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 9) and 17 more; mean -0.4 threes made against their own averages over 23 games from 20 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 14.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 6 books

Case for the over

Over 14.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 19, 11, 16, 20, 13, 26, 15, 23, 22, 3 (3.1 min)); season average 16.8, last 3 average 15.3.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Saddiq Bey (NOP) 13 vs 22.3 in his other games (Nov 9); Karlo Matković (NOP) 12 vs 14.8 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 17 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 9) and 20 more; mean +1.1 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 25 games from 23 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Pts+Reb 13.5 · Over -113 / Under -120 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 13.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 17, 9, 15, 17, 11, 24, 14, 21, 22, 3 (3.1 min)); season average 15.3.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
To forwards, GSW have allowed 84.2 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Saddiq Bey (NOP) 9 vs 20.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Karlo Matković (NOP) 10 vs 13.7 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 16 vs 8.4 in his other games (Nov 9) and 21 more; mean +0.9 points + rebounds against their own averages over 27 games from 24 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.651 PR per minute projects 13.0, -4% against the 13.5 line.

Pts+Ast 9.5 · Over -129 / Under -103 · 6 books

Case for the over

Over 9.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 14, 4, 10, 16, 10, 13, 6, 15, 19, 2 (3.1 min)); season average 10.9.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
To forwards, GSW have allowed 70.6 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Reb+Ast 6.5 · Over -103 / Under -129 · 6 books

Case for the over

Over 6.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 7, 9, 7, 7, 5, 15, 10, 10, 3, 1 (3.1 min)); season average 7.4, last 3 average 7.7.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Saddiq Bey (NOP) 4 vs 6.2 in his other games (Nov 9); Karlo Matković (NOP) 8 vs 5.2 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 7 vs 3.7 in his other games (Nov 9) and 18 more; mean +0.8 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 24 games from 21 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.315 RA per minute projects 6.3, -3% against the 6.5 line.
GSW have allowed 68.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW miss 45.2 shots a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 1.5 · Over +130 / Under -180 · 5 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 1.7 steals, above the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
GSW have allowed 9.0 steals a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW commit 15.8 turnovers a game, the 10th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 8 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1 (3.1 min)); season average 1.0.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.043 steals per minute projects 0.9, -43% against the 1.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 59% (5 books at 1.5).

Blocks 0.5 · Over +123 / Under -167 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 1, 1, 0, 2, 2, 0, 3, 3, 1, 0 (3.1 min)); season average 1.3, last 3 average 0.7.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.055 blocks per minute projects 1.1, +121% against the 0.5 line.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
GSW have allowed 5.5 blocks a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

To forwards, GSW have allowed 2.3 blocks a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW take 86.4 shots a game, the 10th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Karlo Matković (NOP) 0 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Tristan da Silva (ORL) 0 vs 0.4 in his other games (Nov 7); Klay Thompson (MIA) 2 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 5) and 12 more; mean -0.3 blocks against their own averages over 17 games from 15 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 58% (1 book at 0.5).

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

10 games played · averaging 9.4 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 9.5 · POINTS · 2022–2026

HIT RATE50.2%122 of 243 games

INTERVAL44.0%–56.4%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN-101at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+127if the rate is 44.0%

Tari has cleared 9.5 points in 50.2% of 243 games since 2022, and in 50.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs -101 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

DEN

HOME

18.9MIN

12POINTS

5 · 2 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 2-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 54.5
USG%: 25.8
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +18
PRA: 19

2026-11-07

PHX

AWAY

22.6MIN

2POINTS

7 · 2 · 1-8

BELOW

FG: 1-8
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 5/2
TS%: 12.5
USG%: 21.9
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: +7
PRA: 11

2026-11-04

MIN

HOME

24.1MIN

9POINTS

6 · 1 · 4-10

BELOW

FG: 4-10
3PT: 1-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 45.0
USG%: 17.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -8
PRA: 16

2026-11-02

BOS

HOME

27.0MIN

13POINTS

4 · 3 · 5-8

ABOVE

FG: 5-8
3PT: 3-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 81.3
USG%: 18.2
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +16
PRA: 20

2026-10-31

OKC

HOME

19.2MIN

8POINTS

3 · 2 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 2-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 57.1
USG%: 20.5
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +10
PRA: 13

2026-10-30

DAL

AWAY

25.8MIN

11POINTS

13 · 2 · 4-12

ABOVE

FG: 4-12
3PT: 0-2
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 8/5
TS%: 41.3
USG%: 20.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -5
PRA: 26

2026-10-28

MIL

AWAY

30.8MIN

5POINTS

9 · 1 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/8
TS%: 41.7
USG%: 12.8
STL: 1
BLK: 3
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: +12
PRA: 15

2026-10-26

ATL

HOME

32.8MIN

13POINTS

8 · 2 · 4-8

ABOVE

FG: 4-8
3PT: 1-3
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 1/7
TS%: 63.7
USG%: 14.1
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +11
PRA: 23

2026-10-24

ATL

AWAY

30.6MIN

19POINTS

3 · 0 · 8-15

ABOVE

FG: 8-15
3PT: 0-3
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 58.2
USG%: 24.1
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -1
PRA: 22

2026-10-21

DAL

HOME

3.1MIN

2POINTS

1 · 0 · 1-2

BELOW

FG: 1-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 27.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +4
PRA: 3

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: vs GSW, Thu 02:30 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 20:32 UTC · lines as of 20:18 UTC

Projected 20.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 8.5 · Over -110 / Under -123 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 8.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 2, 9, 13, 8, 11, 5, 13, 19, 2 (3.1 min)); season average 9.4.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
To forwards, GSW have allowed 59.6 points a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 7.7 points, below the 8.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.400 points per minute projects 8.0, -6% against the 8.5 line.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Karlo Matković (NOP) 4 vs 9.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 10 vs 5.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Bennedict Mathurin (NOP) 6 vs 6.0 in his other games (Nov 9) and 15 more; mean -0.6 points against their own averages over 19 games from 18 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 4.5 · Over -136 / Under +102 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 4.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 5, 7, 6, 4, 3, 13, 9, 8, 3, 1 (3.1 min)); season average 5.9, last 3 average 6.0.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.251 rebounds per minute projects 5.0, +12% against the 4.5 line.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Saddiq Bey (NOP) 0 vs 4.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Karlo Matković (NOP) 6 vs 4.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 6 vs 2.8 in his other games (Nov 9) and 15 more; mean +0.8 rebounds against their own averages over 21 games from 18 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (13 books at 4.5).

Case for the under

GSW have allowed 41.5 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW miss 45.2 shots a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 1.5 · Over +117 / Under -170 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 1, 2, 0, 0 (3.1 min)); last 3 average 1.7.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
He has assisted on 12.5% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3 games (2 with on-court counts), up from 8.7% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Saddiq Bey (NOP) 4 vs 2.2 in his other games (Nov 9); Karlo Matković (NOP) 2 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 1 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 9) and 15 more; mean +0.4 assists against their own averages over 20 games from 18 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.064 assists per minute projects 1.3, -15% against the 1.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 58% (5 books at 1.5).

Threes 0.5 · Over -223 / Under +164 · 10 books

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 0, 1, 3, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 (3.1 min)); season average 1.0, last 3 average 1.0.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.043 threes per minute projects 0.9, +70% against the 0.5 line.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
Shot volume is up: 4.3 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 3.6 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To forwards, GSW have allowed 7.0 threes made a game over 11 games, the 7th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 65% (10 books at 0.5).

Case for the under

Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Saddiq Bey (NOP) 1 vs 1.8 in his other games (Nov 9); Karlo Matković (NOP) 0 vs 1.8 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 2 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 9) and 17 more; mean -0.4 threes made against their own averages over 23 games from 20 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 14.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 6 books

Case for the over

Over 14.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 19, 11, 16, 20, 13, 26, 15, 23, 22, 3 (3.1 min)); season average 16.8, last 3 average 15.3.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Saddiq Bey (NOP) 13 vs 22.3 in his other games (Nov 9); Karlo Matković (NOP) 12 vs 14.8 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 17 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 9) and 20 more; mean +1.1 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 25 games from 23 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Pts+Reb 13.5 · Over -113 / Under -120 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 13.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 17, 9, 15, 17, 11, 24, 14, 21, 22, 3 (3.1 min)); season average 15.3.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
To forwards, GSW have allowed 84.2 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Saddiq Bey (NOP) 9 vs 20.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Karlo Matković (NOP) 10 vs 13.7 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 16 vs 8.4 in his other games (Nov 9) and 21 more; mean +0.9 points + rebounds against their own averages over 27 games from 24 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.651 PR per minute projects 13.0, -4% against the 13.5 line.

Pts+Ast 9.5 · Over -129 / Under -103 · 6 books

Case for the over

Over 9.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 14, 4, 10, 16, 10, 13, 6, 15, 19, 2 (3.1 min)); season average 10.9.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
To forwards, GSW have allowed 70.6 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Reb+Ast 6.5 · Over -103 / Under -129 · 6 books

Case for the over

Over 6.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 7, 9, 7, 7, 5, 15, 10, 10, 3, 1 (3.1 min)); season average 7.4, last 3 average 7.7.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Saddiq Bey (NOP) 4 vs 6.2 in his other games (Nov 9); Karlo Matković (NOP) 8 vs 5.2 in his other games (Nov 9); Herbert Jones (NOP) 7 vs 3.7 in his other games (Nov 9) and 18 more; mean +0.8 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 24 games from 21 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.315 RA per minute projects 6.3, -3% against the 6.5 line.
GSW have allowed 68.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW miss 45.2 shots a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 1.5 · Over +130 / Under -180 · 5 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 1.7 steals, above the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
GSW have allowed 9.0 steals a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW commit 15.8 turnovers a game, the 10th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 8 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1 (3.1 min)); season average 1.0.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.043 steals per minute projects 0.9, -43% against the 1.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 59% (5 books at 1.5).

Blocks 0.5 · Over +123 / Under -167 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 1, 1, 0, 2, 2, 0, 3, 3, 1, 0 (3.1 min)); season average 1.3, last 3 average 0.7.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.5 a game so far; 0.055 blocks per minute projects 1.1, +121% against the 0.5 line.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.5 a game so far.
GSW have allowed 5.5 blocks a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

To forwards, GSW have allowed 2.3 blocks a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW take 86.4 shots a game, the 10th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 14.1% to 24.1%, 15.5 to 31.5 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Karlo Matković (NOP) 0 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Tristan da Silva (ORL) 0 vs 0.4 in his other games (Nov 7); Klay Thompson (MIA) 2 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 5) and 12 more; mean -0.3 blocks against their own averages over 17 games from 15 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 58% (1 book at 0.5).