MIA · 2026 season

Tyler Herro

33 games played · averaging 20.5 points. Each row is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 20.5 · POINTS · 2019–2026

HIT RATE43.0%186 of 433 games

INTERVAL38.4%–47.7%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+132at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+161if the rate is 38.4%

Tyler has cleared 20.5 points in 43.0% of 433 games since 2019, and in 30.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +132 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-04-12

ATL

HOME

22.3MIN

5POINTS

10 · 8 · 2-9

BELOW

FG: 2-9
3PT: 1-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/10
TS%: 27.8
USG%: 22.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: +10
PRA: 23

2026-04-09

TOR

AWAY

28.3MIN

15POINTS

4 · 4 · 6-12

BELOW

FG: 6-12
3PT: 3-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 21.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 5
+/−: -2
PRA: 23

2026-04-07

TOR

AWAY

30.0MIN

14POINTS

5 · 6 · 5-8

BELOW

FG: 5-8
3PT: 1-4
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 71.7
USG%: 15.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -12
PRA: 25

2026-04-01

BOS

HOME

40.3MIN

18POINTS

3 · 7 · 5-15

BELOW

FG: 5-15
3PT: 4-10
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 53.7
USG%: 20.6
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: -11
PRA: 28

2026-03-30

PHI

HOME

41.9MIN

30POINTS

4 · 3 · 12-24

ABOVE

FG: 12-24
3PT: 3-10
FT: 3-5
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 57.3
USG%: 28.7
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +18
PRA: 37

2026-03-29

IND

AWAY

36.4MIN

31POINTS

3 · 4 · 12-22

ABOVE

FG: 12-22
3PT: 5-13
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 67.7
USG%: 26.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -11
PRA: 38

2026-03-27

CLE

AWAY

31.4MIN

11POINTS

3 · 5 · 4-13

BELOW

FG: 4-13
3PT: 1-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 39.6
USG%: 18.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -23
PRA: 19

2026-03-25

CLE

AWAY

30.2MIN

18POINTS

2 · 4 · 6-11

BELOW

FG: 6-11
3PT: 4-8
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 75.8
USG%: 21.5
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +21
PRA: 24

2026-03-23

HOME

26.2MIN

18POINTS

5 · 2 · 6-11

BELOW

FG: 6-11
3PT: 2-6
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 70.5
USG%: 23.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: -19
PRA: 25

2026-03-21

HOU

AWAY

38.5MIN

25POINTS

6 · 4 · 10-22

ABOVE

FG: 10-22
3PT: 2-9
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 53.6
USG%: 26.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +12
PRA: 35

2026-03-19

LAL

HOME

32.7MIN

21POINTS

8 · 5 · 8-19

ABOVE

FG: 8-19
3PT: 4-10
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/8
TS%: 54.0
USG%: 30.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: -12
PRA: 34

2026-03-17

CHA

AWAY

30.9MIN

20POINTS

8 · 5 · 5-11

BELOW

FG: 5-11
3PT: 1-2
FT: 9-9
OREB/DREB: 1/7
TS%: 66.8
USG%: 24.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 0
+/−: -18
PRA: 33

2026-03-14

ORL

HOME

31.1MIN

10POINTS

6 · 5 · 4-14

BELOW

FG: 4-14
3PT: 2-8
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 35.7
USG%: 22.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -4
PRA: 21

2026-03-08

DET

HOME

30.3MIN

25POINTS

6 · 3 · 8-16

ABOVE

FG: 8-16
3PT: 4-8
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 67.1
USG%: 27.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +18
PRA: 34

2026-03-06

CHA

AWAY

37.3MIN

33POINTS

9 · 9 · 11-20

ABOVE

FG: 11-20
3PT: 8-10
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/8
TS%: 77.4
USG%: 24.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +19
PRA: 51

2026-03-05

BKN

HOME

31.1MIN

25POINTS

4 · 5 · 9-16

ABOVE

FG: 9-16
3PT: 2-7
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 68.7
USG%: 28.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: +6
PRA: 34

2026-03-03

BKN

HOME

27.7MIN

22POINTS

3 · 2 · 8-15

ABOVE

FG: 8-15
3PT: 1-4
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 64.0
USG%: 32.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: +8
PRA: 27

2026-02-28

HOU

HOME

33.1MIN

18POINTS

2 · 3 · 8-12

BELOW

FG: 8-12
3PT: 2-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 75.0
USG%: 20.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: 0
PRA: 23

2026-02-26

PHI

AWAY

32.0MIN

25POINTS

4 · 7 · 9-18

ABOVE

FG: 9-18
3PT: 4-10
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 63.3
USG%: 29.0
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: +1
PRA: 36

2026-02-24

MIL

AWAY

26.1MIN

14POINTS

2 · 6 · 5-17

BELOW

FG: 5-17
3PT: 3-9
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 40.1
USG%: 30.9
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 0
+/−: -20
PRA: 22

2026-02-21

MEM

HOME

22.9MIN

14POINTS

5 · 6 · 5-15

BELOW

FG: 5-15
3PT: 1-4
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 42.9
USG%: 33.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 1
+/−: +8
PRA: 25

2026-02-20

ATL

AWAY

23.3MIN

24POINTS

4 · 3 · 9-14

ABOVE

FG: 9-14
3PT: 2-4
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 76.1
USG%: 28.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +10
PRA: 31

2026-01-15

BOS

HOME

31.0MIN

22POINTS

2 · 3 · 9-15

ABOVE

FG: 9-15
3PT: 4-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 73.3
USG%: 22.8
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -11
PRA: 27

2026-01-13

PHX

HOME

38.9MIN

23POINTS

2 · 3 · 8-18

ABOVE

FG: 8-18
3PT: 2-8
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 55.7
USG%: 26.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 1
+/−: +4
PRA: 28

2026-01-11

OKC

AWAY

27.2MIN

19POINTS

2 · 3 · 8-15

BELOW

FG: 8-15
3PT: 1-3
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 58.2
USG%: 30.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: -5
PRA: 24

2026-01-10

IND

AWAY

32.1MIN

21POINTS

7 · 4 · 8-19

ABOVE

FG: 8-19
3PT: 1-8
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 50.6
USG%: 25.1
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -14
PRA: 32

2026-01-06

MIN

AWAY

28.6MIN

17POINTS

9 · 3 · 7-15

BELOW

FG: 7-15
3PT: 1-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/9
TS%: 53.5
USG%: 24.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -25
PRA: 29

2025-12-09

ORL

AWAY

34.5MIN

20POINTS

7 · 3 · 7-17

BELOW

FG: 7-17
3PT: 0-6
FT: 6-7
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 49.8
USG%: 26.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +5
PRA: 30

2025-12-03

DAL

AWAY

33.1MIN

20POINTS

4 · 0 · 8-17

BELOW

FG: 8-17
3PT: 2-7
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 55.9
USG%: 24.2
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: -5
PRA: 24

2025-12-01

LAC

HOME

29.3MIN

22POINTS

3 · 2 · 8-15

ABOVE

FG: 8-15
3PT: 4-6
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 67.4
USG%: 23.0
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +12
PRA: 27

2025-11-29

DET

HOME

32.3MIN

24POINTS

4 · 2 · 6-17

ABOVE

FG: 6-17
3PT: 6-11
FT: 6-6
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 61.1
USG%: 26.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -18
PRA: 30

2025-11-26

MIL

HOME

32.4MIN

29POINTS

5 · 7 · 9-15

ABOVE

FG: 9-15
3PT: 3-5
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 78.3
USG%: 28.2
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: +4
PRA: 41

2025-11-24

DAL

HOME

29.4MIN

24POINTS

7 · 0 · 12-18

ABOVE

FG: 12-18
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 25.0
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +16
PRA: 31

every game on file — nothing hidden