MEM · C · 2026 season

Zach Edey

Next game: vs DEN, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:39 UTC

Projected 20.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 9 games this season

Points 9.5 · Over -100 / Under -130 · 9 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 11.0 points, above the 9.5 line. a hint, not a finding
DEN allow 114.0 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs DEN (centers; usage 11.1% to 21.1%, 12.8 to 28.8 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Larry Nance Jr. (IND) 15 vs 3.4 in his other games (Nov 7); Ivica Zubac (IND) 10 vs 8.8 in his other games (Nov 7); Jakob Poeltl (TOR) 8 vs 8.6 in his other games (Nov 4) and 7 more; mean +0.7 points against their own averages over 10 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 9.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 8, 14, 11, 6, 4, 13, 4, 8, 6); season average 8.2.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.8 a game so far; 0.396 points per minute projects 7.9, -17% against the 9.5 line.
To centers, DEN have allowed 18.4 points a game over 9 games, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 53% (9 books at 9.5).

Rebounds 8.5 · Over -118 / Under -116 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 8.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 9, 6, 13, 9, 6, 7, 3, 10, 9); last 3 average 9.3.
To centers, DEN have allowed 14.9 rebounds a game over 9 games, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 8.0 rebounds over 9 games, below the 8.5 line.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.8 a game so far; 0.385 rebounds per minute projects 7.7, -9% against the 8.5 line.
DEN miss 43.9 shots a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 17.5 · Over -125 / Under -105 · 6 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 20.3 points + rebounds, above the 17.5 line. a hint, not a finding
DEN allow 114.0 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 17.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 17, 20, 24, 15, 10, 20, 7, 18, 15); season average 16.2.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.8 a game so far; 0.780 PR per minute projects 15.6, -11% against the 17.5 line.
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs DEN (centers; usage 11.1% to 21.1%, 12.8 to 28.8 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Ivica Zubac (IND) 22 vs 15.6 in his other games (Nov 7); Jakob Poeltl (TOR) 13 vs 15.4 in his other games (Nov 4); Robert Williams III (POR) 8 vs 14.6 in his other games (Nov 2) and 6 more; mean -0.5 points + rebounds against their own averages over 9 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 1.5 · Over +145 / Under -200 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 2, 2, 1, 0, 2, 2, 2).

Case for the under

He averages 1.3 blocks over 9 games, below the 1.5 line.
His last 3 games average 1.0 blocks, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.8 a game so far; 0.064 blocks per minute projects 1.3, -14% against the 1.5 line.
DEN have allowed 4.2 blocks a game over 9 games, the 6th-fewest of 30; to centers, 1.6 a game, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs DEN (centers; usage 11.1% to 21.1%, 12.8 to 28.8 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Ivica Zubac (IND) 0 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 7); Jakob Poeltl (TOR) 0 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 4); Robert Williams III (POR) 0 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 2) and 6 more; mean -0.4 blocks against their own averages over 9 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 62% (1 book at 1.5).

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

9 games played · averaging 8.2 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 8.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026

HIT RATE45.6%41 of 90 games

INTERVAL35.7%–55.8%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+119at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+180if the rate is 35.7%

Zach has cleared 8.5 points in 45.6% of 90 games since 2024, and in 40.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +119 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

TOR

AWAY

22.8MIN

8POINTS

9 · 1 · 2-3

BELOW

FG: 2-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 2/7
TS%: 84.0
USG%: 15.7
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: +11
PRA: 18

2026-11-06

OKC

HOME

19.7MIN

14POINTS

6 · 1 · 3-7

ABOVE

FG: 3-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 4/2
TS%: 66.5
USG%: 25.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -14
PRA: 21

2026-11-04

IND

HOME

24.6MIN

11POINTS

13 · 1 · 4-6

ABOVE

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-5
OREB/DREB: 3/10
TS%: 67.1
USG%: 17.1
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +18
PRA: 25

2026-11-02

HOME

19.4MIN

6POINTS

9 · 1 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 6/3
TS%: 43.6
USG%: 18.1
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 6
+/−: -10
PRA: 16

2026-10-31

SAC

HOME

18.0MIN

4POINTS

6 · 0 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 40.0
USG%: 16.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +20
PRA: 10

2026-10-29

POR

AWAY

18.5MIN

13POINTS

7 · 0 · 6-8

ABOVE

FG: 6-8
3PT: 1-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/5
TS%: 81.3
USG%: 17.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -4
PRA: 20

2026-10-26

UTAH

AWAY

20.6MIN

4POINTS

3 · 2 · 0-2

BELOW

FG: 0-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 53.2
USG%: 14.8
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: -4
PRA: 9

2026-10-23

AWAY

22.4MIN

8POINTS

10 · 3 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 4/6
TS%: 62.1
USG%: 11.4
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +25
PRA: 21

2026-10-21

UTAH

HOME

21.1MIN

6POINTS

9 · 0 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/6
TS%: 60.0
USG%: 9.6
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +19
PRA: 15

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: vs DEN, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:39 UTC

Projected 20.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 9 games this season

Points 9.5 · Over -100 / Under -130 · 9 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 11.0 points, above the 9.5 line. a hint, not a finding
DEN allow 114.0 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs DEN (centers; usage 11.1% to 21.1%, 12.8 to 28.8 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Larry Nance Jr. (IND) 15 vs 3.4 in his other games (Nov 7); Ivica Zubac (IND) 10 vs 8.8 in his other games (Nov 7); Jakob Poeltl (TOR) 8 vs 8.6 in his other games (Nov 4) and 7 more; mean +0.7 points against their own averages over 10 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 9.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 8, 14, 11, 6, 4, 13, 4, 8, 6); season average 8.2.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.8 a game so far; 0.396 points per minute projects 7.9, -17% against the 9.5 line.
To centers, DEN have allowed 18.4 points a game over 9 games, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 53% (9 books at 9.5).

Rebounds 8.5 · Over -118 / Under -116 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 8.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 9, 6, 13, 9, 6, 7, 3, 10, 9); last 3 average 9.3.
To centers, DEN have allowed 14.9 rebounds a game over 9 games, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 8.0 rebounds over 9 games, below the 8.5 line.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.8 a game so far; 0.385 rebounds per minute projects 7.7, -9% against the 8.5 line.
DEN miss 43.9 shots a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 17.5 · Over -125 / Under -105 · 6 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 20.3 points + rebounds, above the 17.5 line. a hint, not a finding
DEN allow 114.0 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 17.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 17, 20, 24, 15, 10, 20, 7, 18, 15); season average 16.2.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.8 a game so far; 0.780 PR per minute projects 15.6, -11% against the 17.5 line.
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs DEN (centers; usage 11.1% to 21.1%, 12.8 to 28.8 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Ivica Zubac (IND) 22 vs 15.6 in his other games (Nov 7); Jakob Poeltl (TOR) 13 vs 15.4 in his other games (Nov 4); Robert Williams III (POR) 8 vs 14.6 in his other games (Nov 2) and 6 more; mean -0.5 points + rebounds against their own averages over 9 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 1.5 · Over +145 / Under -200 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 2, 2, 1, 0, 2, 2, 2).

Case for the under

He averages 1.3 blocks over 9 games, below the 1.5 line.
His last 3 games average 1.0 blocks, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.8 a game so far; 0.064 blocks per minute projects 1.3, -14% against the 1.5 line.
DEN have allowed 4.2 blocks a game over 9 games, the 6th-fewest of 30; to centers, 1.6 a game, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs DEN (centers; usage 11.1% to 21.1%, 12.8 to 28.8 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Ivica Zubac (IND) 0 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 7); Jakob Poeltl (TOR) 0 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 4); Robert Williams III (POR) 0 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 2) and 6 more; mean -0.4 blocks against their own averages over 9 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 62% (1 book at 1.5).