WNBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 01:43 UTC

Golden State Valkyries vs Minnesota Lynx

at Minnesota Lynx

No game odds posted yet

GSV 72 – MIN 101

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSV = Golden State Valkyries, MIN = Minnesota Lynx.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

8 players checked · 0 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Valkyriesplaying MIN

Cecilia Zandalasini · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Iliana Rupert · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 0 actual

Janelle Salaun · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Tiffany Hayes · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → no final stat available

Veronica Burton · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 5 actual

Minnesota Lynxplaying GSV

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 4 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 17 actual

Napheesa Collier · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 20 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 01:43 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

GSV had 11 days off before this game · MIN had 43 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 73 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Iliana Rupert · points 7.5 → 0 · 7.5 below the line · played 16.5 min · no final price

Janelle Salaun · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 35.7 min · no final price

Cecilia Zandalasini · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.1 min · no final price

Courtney Williams · assists 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 27.3 min · no final price

Kayla McBride · points 13.5 → 17 · 3.5 above the line · played 25.8 min · no final price

Veronica Burton · rebounds 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.5 min · no final price

Napheesa Collier · points 21.5 → 20 · 1.5 below the line · played 26.2 min · no final price

Tiffany Hayes · points 9.5 → no final stat available · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIN vs GSV · last 10 games · MIN leads · MIN record 9–1 · average score 80.5–72.2 · MIN has won by 8.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Aug · GSV 80 at MIN 66MIN lost

19 Aug · MIN 77 at GSV 66MIN won

19 Jun · MIN 81 at GSV 75MIN won

4 Jun · GSV 84 at MIN 87MIN won

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.3 points · 32.8 rebounds · 17.8 assists · 7.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.0% of shots · 32.4% from three-point range · 13.3 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.3 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.7 vs average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 57

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-13)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-12)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 36 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 45 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-11)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-07)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-09)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-06)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-04)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-05)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-10)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/date (2025-08-31)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-02)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-01)ok 200 · 57 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-03)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 58 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-08)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 57 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 59 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 58 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 68 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 38 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 12 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 41 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 87 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 86 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 111 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 111 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 112 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 112 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 127 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 157 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 193 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 195 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 208 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.