WNBA · Oct 8 gameAll props Full sheet

Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury

FinalLVA 90 – PHO 88Page updated 01:33 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes9 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 24.5 → 34 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 11 actual

Dana Evans · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 6 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 9 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 16 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 7 actual

Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 14 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Sami Whitcomb · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

PHO expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 163.5 points · odds to win: LVA 2.56, PHO 1.54

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 23:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 01:33 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA had 33 days off before this game · PHO had 48 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 75 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 7 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Sami Whitcomb · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 25.2 min · no final price

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 16 · 7.5 above the line · played 30.1 min · no final price

Jackie Young · assists 5.5 → 9 · 3.5 above the line · played 37.4 min · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · rebounds 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 16.6 min · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 24.5 → 34 · 9.5 above the line · played 38.4 min · no final price

Kahleah Copper · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 35.5 min · no final price

Dana Evans · points 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 15.9 min · no final price

Chelsea Gray · points 10.5 → 11 · 0.5 above the line · played 38.7 min · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 14 · 0.5 below the line · played 38.6 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

PHO vs LVA · last 25 games · LVA leads · PHO record 3–22 · average score 80.2–92.2 · PHO has lost by 12 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Sep · LVA 100 at PHO 82PHO lost

11 Jul · PHO 58 at LVA 106PHO lost

17 Jun · LVA 86 at PHO 76PHO lost

9 May · PHO 99 at LVA 66PHO won

10 Oct · LVA 97 at PHO 86PHO lost

8 Oct · LVA 90 at PHO 88PHO lost

5 Oct · PHO 78 at LVA 91PHO lost

3 Oct · PHO 86 at LVA 89PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had PHO expected to win by 4.5, expected total 163.5 (Wed 23:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 23:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 60

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 18 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 22 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 26 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 26 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 27 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 93 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-07)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-26)ok 200 · 96 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 97 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-05)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-25)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-27)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-01)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-30)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-29)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-04)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-28)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-06)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-03)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 112 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 96 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-02)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-24)ok 200 · 129 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 165 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 53 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 71 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 120 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 125 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 126 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 127 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 128 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 128 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 128 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 162 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 192 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 224 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.