WNBA · Final · Playoffs round 3, game 3 · LVA leads 2–0updated 01:43 UTC

Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

PHO expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 163.5 points · odds to win: LVA 2.56, PHO 1.54

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 23:55 UTC

LVA 90 – PHO 88

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LVA = Las Vegas Aces, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 3 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Las Vegas Acesplaying PHO

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 24.5 → 34 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 11 actual

Dana Evans · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 6 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 9 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 16 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 7 actual

Phoenix Mercuryplaying LVA

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 14 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Sami Whitcomb · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 01:43 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA had 33 days off before this game · PHO had 48 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 75 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 7 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Sami Whitcomb · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 25.2 min · no final price

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 16 · 7.5 above the line · played 30.1 min · no final price

Jackie Young · assists 5.5 → 9 · 3.5 above the line · played 37.4 min · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · rebounds 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 16.6 min · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 24.5 → 34 · 9.5 above the line · played 38.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.95

Kahleah Copper · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 35.5 min · no final price

Dana Evans · points 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 15.9 min · no final price

Chelsea Gray · points 10.5 → 11 · 0.5 above the line · played 38.7 min · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 14 · 0.5 below the line · played 38.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.95

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs LVA · last 25 games · LVA leads · PHO record 3–22 · average score 80.2–92.2 · PHO has lost by 12 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Sep · LVA 100 at PHO 82PHO lost

11 Jul · PHO 58 at LVA 106PHO lost

17 Jun · LVA 86 at PHO 76PHO lost

9 May · PHO 99 at LVA 66PHO won

10 Oct · LVA 97 at PHO 86PHO lost

8 Oct · LVA 90 at PHO 88PHO lost

5 Oct · PHO 78 at LVA 91PHO lost

3 Oct · PHO 86 at LVA 89PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had PHO expected to win by 4.5, expected total 163.5 (Wed 23:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 23:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 60

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 14 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 15 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-29)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-06)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-07)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-01)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-02)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-27)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-24)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-25)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-04)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 32 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-05)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2025-10-03)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-26)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-28)ok 200 · 35 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2025-09-30)ok 200 · 36 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 37 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 36 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 37 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 42 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 74 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 67 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 71 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 75 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 134 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 135 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 142 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 155 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 161 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 175 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 186 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 296 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 587 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 606 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.