WNBA · Jun 17 gameAll props Full sheet

Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury

FinalLVA 86 – PHO 76Page updated 14:57 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Evans · earlier listed as available

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Evans · earlier listed as available · Thu 19:30 UTC · 15, 4 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Players and minutes11 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 25.5 → 33 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 5 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 20 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 0 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 21 actual

Stephanie Talbot · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual

Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 10 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 26 actual

Lexi Held · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 7 actual

Natasha Mack · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 0 actual

Noemie Brochant · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 4 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LVA expected to win by about 6.5 · both teams together expected to score about 172 points · odds to win: LVA 1.39, PHO 3.12

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 02:13 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 14:57 UTC

Who is out

Whitcomb · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 19, 15 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Out Evans · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 19:30 UTC) · 15, 4 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA also played the day before this game · PHO had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 144 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Whitcomb out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Evans out (Thu 19:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

NaLyssa Smith · points 9.5 → 21 · 11.5 above the line · played 30.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.69, Under 2.09

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 24.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Natasha Mack · points 9.5 → 0 · 9.5 below the line · played 22.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.09, Under 1.69

Chelsea Gray · points 11.5 → 5 · 6.5 below the line · played 34.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Stephanie Talbot · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 19.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Kahleah Copper · points 18.5 → 26 · 7.5 above the line · played 30.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Noemie Brochant · points 6.5 → 4 · 2.5 below the line · played 18.8 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.89

Alyssa Thomas · points 15.5 → 10 · 5.5 below the line · played 35.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

A'ja Wilson · points 25.5 → 33 · 7.5 above the line · played 37.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.04

Jackie Young · points 17.5 → 20 · 2.5 above the line · played 37.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Lexi Held · points 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 15 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.94

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

PHO vs LVA · last 25 games · LVA leads · PHO record 3–22 · average score 80.2–92.2 · PHO has lost by 12 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Sep · LVA 100 at PHO 82PHO lost

11 Jul · PHO 58 at LVA 106PHO lost

17 Jun · LVA 86 at PHO 76PHO lost

9 May · PHO 99 at LVA 66PHO won

10 Oct · LVA 97 at PHO 86PHO lost

8 Oct · LVA 90 at PHO 88PHO lost

5 Oct · PHO 78 at LVA 91PHO lost

3 Oct · PHO 86 at LVA 89PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up86.2 points · 33.5 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.5% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 13.1 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 86.2 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 7, expected total 172.5 (Wed 02:18 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 6.5, expected total 172 (Thu 02:13 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 38 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 38 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 122 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 128 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 128 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 129 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 134 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 142 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 122 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 221 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 97 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 124 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 128 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 265 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 493 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 734 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 785 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 783 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 784 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 815 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 831 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 852 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 931 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 930 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1156 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 996 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.