WNBA · Jul 3 gameAll props Full sheet

Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty

FinalMIN 86 – NYL 99Page updated 04:34 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available · Wed 00:15 UTC · 4, 18 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Players and minutes11 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Minnesota Lynx

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 16 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 18 actual

Natasha Howard · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 7 actual

Nia Brodie · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 7 actual

Olivia Miles · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 14 actual

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 36 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 14 actual

Leonie Fiebich · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 13 actual

Marine Johannes · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Pauline Astier · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 14 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 17 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

MIN expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 174 points · odds to win: MIN 1.70, NYL 2.22

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 22:22 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 04:34 UTC

Who is out

Fauthoux · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 04:40 UTC) · 3, 17 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 00:15 UTC) · 4, 18 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Cechova · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 16:00 UTC) · 11, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Collier · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 33, 33 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 140 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Fauthoux out (Mon 04:40 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Carrington out (Wed 00:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Cechova out (Sun 16:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Collier out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Marine Johannes · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 14.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.89

Breanna Stewart · points 18.5 → 36 · 17.5 above the line · played 35.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.73

Pauline Astier · points 7.5 → 14 · 6.5 above the line · played 30.2 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.77, Under 2.00

Natasha Howard · points 15.5 → 7 · 8.5 below the line · played 31.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.02

Leonie Fiebich · points 8.5 → 13 · 4.5 above the line · played 36.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.94

Olivia Miles · points 18.5 → 14 · 4.5 below the line · played 26.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Nia Brodie · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Sabrina Ionescu · points 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 35.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Kayla McBride · points 15.5 → 18 · 2.5 above the line · played 32.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.72

Jonquel Jones · points 14.5 → 14 · 0.5 below the line · played 33.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Courtney Williams · points 15.5 → 16 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

NYL vs MIN · last 23 games · NYL leads · NYL record 12–11 · average score 83.4–79.8 · NYL has won by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Sep · MIN 71 at NYL 87NYL won

27 Sep · NYL 91 at MIN 75NYL won

18 Sep · NYL 93 at MIN 81NYL won

11 Jul · NYL 85 at MIN 90NYL lost

3 Jul · MIN 86 at NYL 99NYL won

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.0 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.4% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average

NYL gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 2, expected total 173 (Fri 03:15 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 2.5, expected total 174 (Fri 22:22 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 24 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 99 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 102 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 103 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 106 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 112 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 119 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 91 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 429 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 67 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 523 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 340 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 826 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 671 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 736 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 745 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 747 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 750 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 756 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 947 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 980 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1011 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.