WNBA · Jul 8 gameAll props Full sheet

Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun

FinalMIN 86 – CON 80Page updated 10:39 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Griner · earlier listed as may not play

No playing-time estimates are available.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Griner · earlier listed as may not play · Sun 16:30 UTC · 19, 24 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Players and minutes9 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Minnesota Lynx

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 12 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 23 actual

Natasha Howard · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 12 actual

Nia Brodie · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 1 actual

Olivia Miles · Out · right calf

points 18.5 → no final stat available

Connecticut Sun

Kennedy Burke · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 3 actual

Leila Lacan · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 15 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 14 actual

Brittney Griner · Out · left quad (quad)

points 13.5 → no final stat available

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

MIN expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 166.5 points · odds to win: MIN 1.37, CON 3.25

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 22:08 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 10:39 UTC

Who is out

Jackson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 26, 15 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Out Griner · earlier listed as may not play (changed Sun 16:30 UTC) · 19, 24 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Cechova · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 16:00 UTC) · 11, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Collier · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 33, 33 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Miles · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:30 UTC) · 17, 31 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN had 12 days off before this game · CON had 17 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 20 of the 93 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jackson out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Griner out (Sun 16:30 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Cechova out (Sun 16:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Collier out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Miles out (Sat 21:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 4 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Nia Brodie · points 8.5 → 1 · 7.5 below the line · played 14.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.92

Kennedy Burke · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 27.3 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.91

Courtney Williams · points 18.5 → 12 · 6.5 below the line · played 30.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.78

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 10.5 → 14 · 3.5 above the line · played 27.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Kayla McBride · points 18.5 → 23 · 4.5 above the line · played 38.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.78

Natasha Howard · points 15.5 → 12 · 3.5 below the line · played 31.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Leila Lacan · points 12.5 → 15 · 2.5 above the line · played 28.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Olivia Miles · points 18.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Brittney Griner · points 13.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

CON vs MIN · last 24 games · CON leads · CON record 13–11 · average score 81.5–81.6 · CON has lost by 0.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

20 Sep · MIN 101 at CON 89CON lost

8 Jul · MIN 86 at CON 80CON lost

6 Jul · CON 90 at MIN 89CON won

30 Aug · MIN 94 at CON 70CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 7.5, expected total 167.5 (Wed 02:41 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 6, expected total 166.5 (Wed 22:08 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 46

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 12 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 86 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 92 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 94 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 4 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 101 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 106 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 339 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 355 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 86 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 613 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 257 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 638 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 642 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 646 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 652 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 672 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 675 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 681 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 704 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 706 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 709 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3277 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3508 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3510 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3717 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3716 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3755 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3905 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 4622 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 4087 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.