WNBA · Jul 9 gameAll props Full sheet

Las Vegas Aces at Portland Fire

FinalLVA 88 – POR 80Page updated 10:16 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 4 availability alerts

Out Feagin · earlier listed as available

May not play Wilson · right leg · LVA

Unlikely to play Evans · left leg · LVA

May not play Samuelson · left middle finger · POR

No playing-time estimates are available.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Feagin · earlier listed as available · Mon 23:30 UTC · 6, 1 and 3 min in the last 3 games

May not play Wilson · right leg · LVA

Unlikely to play Evans · left leg · LVA

May not play Samuelson · left middle finger · POR

Players and minutes12 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 32 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 8 actual

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 0 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 19 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 6 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 16 actual

Stephanie Talbot · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 10.5 → 3 actual

Portland Fire

Bridget Carleton · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 9 actual

Carla Leite · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 13 actual

Emily Engstler · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 10 actual

Megan DiLeo · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 11 actual

Sarah Ashlee Barker · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 6 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LVA expected to win by about 9.5 · both teams together expected to score about 174.5 points · odds to win: LVA 1.22, POR 4.58

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 00:50 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 10:16 UTC

Who is out

Out Feagin · earlier listed as available (changed Mon 23:30 UTC) · 6, 1 and 3 min in the last 3 games

May not play Wilson · right leg · LVA

Unlikely to play Evans · left leg · LVA

May not play Samuelson · left middle finger · POR

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 19 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 12 of the 131 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Feagin out (Mon 23:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 5 of 11 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 4.8 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Stephanie Talbot · points + rebounds + assists 10.5 → 3 · 7.5 below the line · played 16.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.83

Chelsea Gray · points 13.5 → 8 · 5.5 below the line · played 33.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

NaLyssa Smith · points 11.5 → 16 · 4.5 above the line · played 28.3 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.71, Under —

Jewell Loyd · points 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 29.3 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.92

A'ja Wilson · points 23.5 → 32 · 8.5 above the line · played 30.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.69

Bridget Carleton · points 13.5 → 9 · 4.5 below the line · played 27.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Emily Engstler · points 7.5 → 10 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.3 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.98

Sarah Ashlee Barker · rebounds 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.2 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.15, Under —

Megan DiLeo · points 12.5 → 11 · 1.5 below the line · played 25.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Carla Leite · points 14.5 → 13 · 1.5 below the line · played 20.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.64, Under 2.15

Jackie Young · points 17.5 → 19 · 1.5 above the line · played 31.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

POR vs LVA · last 3 games · LVA leads · POR record 0–3 · average score 84.0–97.0 · POR has lost by 13 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Jul · POR 83 at LVA 98POR lost

9 Jul · LVA 88 at POR 80POR lost

11 Jun · LVA 105 at POR 89POR lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 9, expected total 175.5 (Thu 01:12 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 9.5, expected total 174.5 (Fri 00:50 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 55

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 16 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 18 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 20 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 87 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 92 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 95 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 91 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 128 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 389 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 711 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 3757 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 616 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 617 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 620 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 642 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 646 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 658 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 660 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 664 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 666 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 677 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 682 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 686 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 687 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 701 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 706 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 707 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 708 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 713 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 721 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 726 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 733 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 969 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 992 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1058 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1098 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1237 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1300 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1320 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1321 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1323 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1324 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1323 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.