WNBA · Jul 9 gameAll props Full sheet

Seattle Storm at Atlanta Dream

FinalSEA 78 – ATL 89Page updated 10:16 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 3 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

3Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 2 availability alerts

Out Jones · earlier listed as available

Out Mair · earlier listed as available

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rhyne HowardOver 18.5 points

WonActual 19

Posted odds2.23Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Rhyne’s points

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.23. Last price before tip: 1.88.

Recorded result: +1.23 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

First recorded: 1.88 at Pinnacle, Thu 16:09 UTC. Latest included: 1.74 at Pinnacle, Thu 23:49 UTC. The 17.5 line held.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 1.55 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Flau'jae JohnsonUnder 2.5 assists

LostActual 5

Posted odds2.22

Rhyne HowardOver 3.5 rebounds

WonActual 4

Posted odds2.08

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Jones · earlier listed as available · Sat 21:00 UTC · 5, 20 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Out Mair · earlier listed as available · Thu 01:15 UTC · 5, 2 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Players and minutes9 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Seattle Storm

Awa Fam · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 4 actual

Dominique Malonga · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 15 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 5 actual

Jade Melbourne · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 5 actual

Natisha Hiedeman · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 3 actual

Atlanta Dream

Allisha Gray · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 22 actual

Angel Reese · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 18 actual

Jordin Canada · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 14 actual

Rhyne Howard · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 19 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

ATL expected to win by about 12.5 · both teams together expected to score about 170.5 points · odds to win: SEA 5.75, ATL 1.16

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 22:47 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 10:16 UTC

Who is out

Out Jones · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 5, 20 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Out Mair · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 01:15 UTC) · 5, 2 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA had 18 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 109 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Mair out (Thu 01:15 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 3 picks won2 won, 1 lost · +1.31 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 4.0% higher than the last before the start

Flau'jae Johnson · assists 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.3 min

Pick: Under 2.5 at 2.22 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Rhyne Howard · points 18.5 → 19 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.5 min

Pick: Over 18.5 at 2.23 → Won +1.23 per 1 staked

7 other players with a posted line

Awa Fam · points 11.5 → 4 · 7.5 below the line · played 29.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Jade Melbourne · points 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 24.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Natisha Hiedeman · assists 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 34.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.85

Jordin Canada · points 10.5 → 14 · 3.5 above the line · played 34.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.98

Angel Reese · points 14.5 → 18 · 3.5 above the line · played 29.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Allisha Gray · points 18.5 → 22 · 3.5 above the line · played 32.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Dominique Malonga · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.01, Under 1.74

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

ATL vs SEA · last 16 games · ATL leads · ATL record 8–8 · average score 81.3–80.1 · ATL has won by 1.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

31 Jul · SEA 89 at ATL 98ATL won

9 Jul · SEA 78 at ATL 89ATL won

27 Jun · ATL 90 at SEA 105ATL lost

What each defense gives up per game

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up84.3 points · 31.7 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.6% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 15.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.2+1.8 vs average

ATL gives up 84.3 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.2−2.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 11, expected total 169 (Thu 01:12 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 12.5, expected total 170.5 (Thu 22:47 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 3

Rhyne Howard · O 3.5 rebounds+108value_edge_pct +13.86 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Flau'jae Johnson · U 2.5 assists+122value_edge_pct +8.74 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Rhyne Howard · O 18.5 points+123value_edge_pct +7.72 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 3

Rhyne Howard Over 18.5 PTSWIN +1.23ubet +123 → close −113 · CLV +8.2¢ · bet_clv:97076 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.3% · actual 19 · 34.5 min · startedHoward cleared the line with efficient scoring on elevated volume (22% usage, 60% TS%), converting 6-of-14 from the field and 4-of-11 from three while playing a full 34 minutes without foul trouble (4 PF). The modest 19-point finish reflected solid shot-making rather than a hot night, but proved just enough to cash the tight 18.5 number.

Rhyne Howard Over 3.5 REBWIN +1.08ubet +108 → close −108 · CLV +3.8¢ · bet_clv:97075 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.7% · actual 4 · 34.5 min · startedHoward's 4 rebounds cleared the 3.5 line despite modest usage (22%) and a balanced offensive role, confirming her recent L10 average of 4.3 boards was the more reliable benchmark than the 3.4 L5 dip that the market appeared to price in.

Flau'jae Johnson Under 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +122 → close +122 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:97074 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.0% · unexplained · actual 5 · 29.3 min · startedJohnson doubled the target with 5 assists in 29 minutes, benefiting from increased offensive load (25% usage) and floor time that extended beyond typical role constraints. The under's vulnerability was exposed by her playmaking upside in a game where she operated as a primary ball-handler rather than a complementary scorer.

Data fetches · 47

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 20 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 92 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 95 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 99 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 111 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 121 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 124 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 97 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 389 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 493 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 546 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 552 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 762 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 4139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 348 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 358 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 387 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 393 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 395 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 407 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 627 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 628 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 630 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 632 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 632 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 635 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 643 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 647 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 653 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 656 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 760 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 760 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 777 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 778 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 884 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 988 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1023 ms

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