WNBA · Jul 10 gameAll props Full sheet

Dallas Wings at Toronto Tempo

FinalDAL 108 – TOR 95Page updated 09:28 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 1 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

1Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Maria CondeUnder 9.5 points

LostActual 12

Posted odds2.06Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Maria’s points

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.06. Last price before tip: 1.74.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

First recorded: 1.79 at DraftKings, Fri 03:53 UTC. Latest included: 1.83 at Caesars, Fri 23:10 UTC. The line changed from 9.5 to 11.5.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes11 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Dallas Wings

Arike Ogunbowale · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 20 actual

Awak Kuier · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 3 actual

Azzi Fudd · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 13 actual

Jessica Shepard · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 20 actual

Paige Bueckers · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 34 actual

Toronto Tempo

Isabelle Harrison · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 18 actual

Julie Allemand · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 3 actual

Laura Juskaite · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 25 actual

Maria Conde · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 12 actual

Marina Mabrey · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 34 actual

Nyara Sabally · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → no final stat available

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

DAL expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 178.5 points · odds to win: DAL 1.30, TOR 3.74

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 22:09 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 09:28 UTC

Who is out

Rice · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 21:00 UTC) · 31, 30 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Bankole · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 19, 20 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6, 7 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

DAL had 9 days off before this game · TOR had 17 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 20 of the 118 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Rice out (Wed 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Bankole out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 8.9% higher than the last before the start

Maria Conde · points 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 34.8 min

Pick: Under 9.5 at 2.06 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

10 other players with a posted line

Laura Juskaite · points 8.5 → 25 · 16.5 above the line · played 36.4 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Julie Allemand · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 34 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.76

Paige Bueckers · points 21.5 → 34 · 12.5 above the line · played 37.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Marina Mabrey · points 21.5 → 34 · 12.5 above the line · played 27.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Awak Kuier · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 11.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Arike Ogunbowale · points 13.5 → 20 · 6.5 above the line · played 29.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.71

Jessica Shepard · points 14.5 → 20 · 5.5 above the line · played 40 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Isabelle Harrison · points 13.5 → 18 · 4.5 above the line · played 26.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.86

Azzi Fudd · points 13.5 → 13 · 0.5 below the line · played 36.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.78

Nyara Sabally · points 11.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

TOR vs DAL · last 3 games · DAL leads · TOR record 0–3 · average score 86.3–97.0 · TOR has lost by 10.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

12 Aug · TOR 88 at DAL 94TOR lost

10 Jul · DAL 108 at TOR 95TOR lost

5 Jul · DAL 89 at TOR 76TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.2+7.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 7, expected total 180 (Fri 05:55 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 8, expected total 178.5 (Fri 22:09 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Maria Conde · U 9.5 points+106value_edge_pct +9.74 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Maria Conde Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +106 → close −135 · CLV +8.9¢ · bet_clv:102539 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 12 · 34.8 min · startedConde's 12 points came on efficient shooting (5-9 FG, 2-4 3PT) despite modest usage, and she logged a game-high 35 minutes, giving her more scoring opportunities than the under-9.5 line anticipated.

Data fetches · 52

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 13 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 17 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 99 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 109 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 7 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 112 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 114 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 91 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 240 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 580 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1108 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 4163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 33 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 34 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 35 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 69 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 73 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 75 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 94 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 311 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 340 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 344 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 347 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 554 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 555 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 565 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 661 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 664 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 691 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 692 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 734 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 880 ms

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