WNBA · Jul 11 gameAll props Full sheet

New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx

FinalNYL 85 – MIN 90Page updated 08:35 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 1 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

1Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available

No playing-time estimates are available.

Courtney WilliamsOver 4.5 rebounds

WonActual 12

Posted odds1.93Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Courtney’s rebounds

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 1.93. Last price before tip: 1.69.

Recorded result: +0.93 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

Price movement history is unavailable for this line.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available · Wed 00:15 UTC · 4, 18 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Players and minutes6 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 2 actual

Minnesota Lynx

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 12 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual

Natasha Howard · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 16 actual

Nia Brodie · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 3 actual

Olivia Miles · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 23 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

MIN expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 174.5 points · odds to win: NYL 2.51, MIN 1.54

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 05:47 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 08:35 UTC

Who is out

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 00:15 UTC) · 4, 18 and 19 min in the last 3 games

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Collier · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 33, 33 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Maley · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 3, 5 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN had 12 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 63 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Carrington out (Wed 00:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Collier out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Maley out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 1 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.93 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 7.3% higher than the last before the start · 2 lines checked, 1 scored but not picked

Courtney Williams · rebounds 4.5 → 12 · 7.5 above the line · played 36.2 min

Pick: Over 4.5 at 1.93 → Won +0.93 per 1 staked

5 other players with a posted line

Breanna Stewart · 3-pointers 0.5 → 2 · 1.5 above the line · played 37.1 min · no final price

Nia Brodie · points 8.5 → 3 · 5.5 below the line · played 28.1 min · no final price

Olivia Miles · points 17.5 → 23 · 5.5 above the line · played 31.9 min · no final price

Kayla McBride · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 33 min · no final price

Natasha Howard · points 14.5 → 16 · 1.5 above the line · played 35.6 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIN vs NYL · last 23 games · NYL leads · MIN record 11–12 · average score 79.8–83.4 · MIN has lost by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Sep · MIN 71 at NYL 87MIN lost

27 Sep · NYL 91 at MIN 75MIN lost

18 Sep · NYL 93 at MIN 81MIN lost

11 Jul · NYL 85 at MIN 90MIN won

3 Jul · MIN 86 at NYL 99MIN lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Courtney Williams · O 4.5 rebounds−108value_edge_pct +7.53 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Courtney Williams Under 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −170 → close −220 · CLV +5.8¢ · bet_clv:107887 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 65.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 36.2 min · startedWilliams hit 2-of-3 from three despite poor overall efficiency (5-17 FG, 35% TS), getting to the line only once and relying on perimeter shooting to generate her 12 points in 36 minutes. The sharp model underestimated her three-point volume on a night when she attempted only 17 total shots but took 3 threes—a 17.6% three-point rate well above her typical usage pattern.

Courtney Williams Over 4.5 REBWIN +0.93ubet −108 → close −145 · CLV +7.3¢ · bet_clv:107888 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.8% · actual 12 · 36.2 min · startedWilliams crashed the glass relentlessly despite poor shooting (5-17 FG), pulling down 12 rebounds across 36 minutes to clear the 4.5 line by a comfortable margin. Her volume rebounding work compensated for inefficient offensive production, making the over a clean winner.

Data fetches · 37

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 67 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 74 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 145 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 193 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 199 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 204 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 210 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 219 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 100 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 406 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 650 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 27 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 28 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 155 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 170 ms

odds game timelinefailed · 6000 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed · 6001 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed · 6001 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6001 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6002 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed · 6006 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6006 ms

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