WNBA · Jul 11 gameAll props Full sheet

Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces

FinalPHO 58 – LVA 106Page updated 08:36 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 1 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

1Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Jewell LoydUnder 2.5 3-pointers

WonActual 2

Posted odds1.78Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Jewell’s 3-pointers

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 1.78. Last price before tip: 1.49.

Recorded result: +0.78 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

Price movement history is unavailable for this line.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes4 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 7 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 9 actual

Valeriane Ayayi · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 5 actual

Las Vegas Aces

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 3 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LVA expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 168.5 points · odds to win: PHO 3.76, LVA 1.29

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 20:38 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 08:36 UTC

Who is out

Carter · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 16:30 UTC) · 12, 11 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 17 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 7 of the 47 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Carter out (Wed 16:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 2 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.78 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 11.1% higher than the last before the start

4 other players with a posted line

Kahleah Copper · points 20.5 → 9 · 11.5 below the line · played 29 min · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 7 · 7.5 below the line · played 28.5 min · no final price

Valeriane Ayayi · points 9.5 → 5 · 4.5 below the line · played 30.7 min · no final price

Jewell Loyd · assists 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 28.2 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

LVA vs PHO · last 25 games · LVA leads · LVA record 22–3 · average score 92.2–80.2 · LVA has won by 12 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Sep · LVA 100 at PHO 82LVA won

11 Jul · PHO 58 at LVA 106LVA won

17 Jun · LVA 86 at PHO 76LVA won

What each defense gives up per game

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Jewell Loyd · U 2.5 threes−128value_edge_pct +11.86 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Jewell Loyd Under 2.5 3PMWIN +0.78ubet −128 → close −205 · CLV +11.1¢ · bet_clv:109765 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.8% · actual 2 · 28.2 min · startedLoyd connected on just 2-of-6 from three, a modest 33% clip that fell short of her season average, while her 14% usage rate kept her shot volume constrained in a blowout win where Seattle's lead limited shot attempts.

Data fetches · 32

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 52 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 55 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 55 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 64 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 66 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 69 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 101 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 189 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 194 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 197 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 63 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 234 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 444 ms

odds game timelinefailed · 6001 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed · 6002 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6002 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6003 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed · 6010 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6012 ms

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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.