WNBA · Jul 12 gameAll props Full sheet

Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces

FinalIND 109 – LVA 75Page updated 07:38 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 2 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

2Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Jackie YoungOver 28.5 points + rebounds + assists

LostActual 19

Posted odds2.15Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Jackie’s points + rebounds + assists

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.15. Last price before tip: 1.83.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

First recorded: 1.85 at FanDuel, Sun 02:12 UTC. Latest included: 1.75 at BetRivers, Mon 00:39 UTC. The line changed from 27.5 to 26.5.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Jewell LoydUnder 2.5 3-pointers

WonActual 0

Posted odds1.78

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes5 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Indiana Fever

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 24.5 → 20 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 9 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 28.5 → 19 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 0 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 9 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 07:38 UTC

Who is out

Bell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 1, 21 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Bibby · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 02:00 UTC) · 3, 11 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Clark · likely to play · back · IND

Evans · likely to play · left leg · LVA

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

IND had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 11 of the 67 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Bell out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Bibby out (Sat 02:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 4 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 2 picks won1 won, 1 lost · −0.22 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 10.6% higher than the last before the start · 3 lines checked, 1 scored but not picked

Jewell Loyd · 3-pointers 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.8 min

Pick: Under 2.5 at 1.78 → Won +0.78 per 1 staked

Jackie Young · points + rebounds + assists 28.5 → 19 · 9.5 below the line · played 31.9 min

Pick: Over 28.5 at 2.15 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

3 other players with a posted line

Chelsea Gray · points 12.5 → 9 · 3.5 below the line · played 29.7 min · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · points 11.5 → 9 · 2.5 below the line · played 20.8 min · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 24.5 → 20 · 4.5 below the line · played 30.8 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

LVA vs IND · last 24 games · LVA leads · LVA record 17–7 · average score 86.0–82.0 · LVA has won by 4.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Oct · IND 83 at LVA 94LVA won

29 Sep · LVA 89 at IND 99LVA lost

27 Sep · IND 85 at LVA 102LVA won

6 Aug · LVA 86 at IND 84LVA won

12 Jul · IND 109 at LVA 75LVA lost

5 Jul · IND 84 at LVA 68LVA lost

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.6 vs average

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Jewell Loyd · U 2.5 threes−128value_edge_pct +12.24 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Jackie Young · O 28.5 pra+115value_edge_pct +11.75 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 3

Jewell Loyd Over 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −147 → close −162 · CLV +2.3¢ · bet_clv:117063 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 0 · 27.8 min · startedLoyd went 0-for-3 from three despite 28 minutes of play, a sharp departure from her 2.0 L10 and L5 averages; her 13% usage rate was season-low territory, and she finished a team-worst -30 in a blowout loss that limited her offensive rhythm.

Jewell Loyd Under 2.5 3PMWIN +0.78ubet −128 → close −225 · CLV +13.1¢ · bet_clv:117064 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.0% · actual 0 · 27.8 min · startedLoyd went 0-for-3 from deep on just 13% usage, settling into a complementary role rather than hunting threes in a game where Seattle's offense stalled (52% TS%). The under-2.5 line held easily as she took only 28 minutes and deferred shot creation.

Jackie Young Over 28.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +115 → close −120 · CLV +8.0¢ · bet_clv:117062 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 52.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 19 · 31.9 min · startedYoung's low usage rate (16%) and limited field-goal attempts (8 FG) kept her well short of the Over despite efficient shooting, as the Las Vegas offense distributed possessions elsewhere in a blowout loss (-17).

Data fetches · 34

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 17 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 18 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 18 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 23 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 107 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 109 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 4 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 112 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 134 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 279 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 356 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 199 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 748 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 749 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 810 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 734 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 871 ms

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