WNBA · Jul 17 gameAll props Full sheet

Connecticut Sun at Phoenix Mercury

FinalCON 96 – PHO 83Page updated 15:54 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 1 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

1Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 3 availability alerts

Out Morrow · earlier listed as available

Unlikely to play Mack · left foot · PHO

May not play Whitcomb · left knee · PHO

No playing-time estimates are available.

Brittney GrinerUnder 6.5 rebounds

WonActual 6

Posted odds1.82Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Brittney’s rebounds

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 1.82. Last price before tip: 1.82.

Recorded result: +0.82 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

First recorded: 2.18 at Pinnacle, Fri 05:50 UTC. Latest included: 2.14 at Pinnacle, Sat 01:47 UTC. The 5.5 line held.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 1.20 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Morrow · earlier listed as available · Sat 23:45 UTC · 7, 23 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Unlikely to play Mack · left foot · PHO

May not play Whitcomb · left knee · PHO

Players and minutes8 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Connecticut Sun

Brittney Griner · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 6 actual

Charlisse Leger-Walker · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 4 actual

Diamond Miller · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 11 actual

Leila Lacan · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 26 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 6 actual

Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 17 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 21 actual

Noemie Brochant · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 6 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

PHO expected to win by about 4 · both teams together expected to score about 163 points · odds to win: CON 2.54, PHO 1.55

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 00:46 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 15:54 UTC

Who is out

Out Morrow · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 23:45 UTC) · 7, 23 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Linskens · likely to play · right knee · PHO

Unlikely to play Mack · left foot · PHO

May not play Whitcomb · left knee · PHO

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 9 days off before this game · PHO had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 131 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Morrow out (Sat 23:45 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.82 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start

Brittney Griner · rebounds 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 25.8 min

Pick: Under 6.5 at 1.82 → Won +0.82 per 1 staked

7 other players with a posted line

Leila Lacan · points 12.5 → 26 · 13.5 above the line · played 28 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Charlisse Leger-Walker · points 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 29.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 11.5 → 6 · 5.5 below the line · played 21.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Diamond Miller · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 21.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.92

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 35.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.75

Noemie Brochant · points 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71

Kahleah Copper · points 20.5 → 21 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.82

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

PHO vs CON · last 16 games · CON leads · PHO record 5–11 · average score 74.0–80.6 · PHO has lost by 6.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

7 Aug · PHO 72 at CON 75PHO lost

19 Jul · CON 63 at PHO 72PHO won

17 Jul · CON 96 at PHO 83PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had PHO expected to win by 5, expected total 163.5 (Fri 01:45 UTC) and later PHO expected to win by 4, expected total 163 (Sat 00:46 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Brittney Griner · U 6.5 rebounds−122value_edge_pct +3.93 · kelly 1.20u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Brittney Griner Under 6.5 REBWIN +0.82ubet −122 → close −122 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:136200 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-17T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.1% · actual 6 · 25.8 min · startedGriner grabbed exactly 6 rebounds in just 26 minutes, staying at the line rather than dominating the glass due to limited floor time and modest usage (26%) in a blowout where Phoenix didn't need her to crash the boards heavily.

Data fetches · 43

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 81 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 88 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 89 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 90 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 178 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 181 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 184 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 189 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 194 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 230 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 93 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 677 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 795 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 311 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 343 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 345 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 349 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 350 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 352 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 925 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 381 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 383 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 384 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 385 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 391 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 400 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1210 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1253 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1348 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1528 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1530 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1532 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1636 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1638 ms

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