WNBA · Finalupdated 15:49 UTC

New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever

at Indiana Fever

NYL expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 172.5 points · odds to win: NYL 1.69, IND 1.35

Game odds from 2 bookmakers, Fri 22:13 UTC

NYL 88 – IND 108

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, IND = Indiana Fever.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

M. Billings · Over 5.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.99 · last price before start 1.65Won +0.99 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.99 · Our price was 10.4% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.04 by Caesars (Sat 20:48 UTC); latest 2.04 at Caesars (Sat 21:42 UTC). The 6.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

8 players checked · 3 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying IND

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 26 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 13 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 12 actual

Indiana Feverplaying NYL

Aliyah Boston · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 15 actual

Caitlin Clark · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 17 actual

Kelsey Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 22.5 → 33 actual

Monique Billings · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 6 actual

Sophie Cunningham · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 11 actual

What could go wrong

updated 15:49 UTC

Who is out

Fiebich · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:15 UTC) · 29, 34 and 16 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 13 of the 86 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Fiebich out (Sat 23:15 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 1 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.99 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 10.4% higher than the last before the start

Monique Billings · rebounds 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 17.8 min

Pick: Over 5.5 at 1.99 → Won +0.99 per 1 staked

7 other players with a posted line

Kelsey Mitchell · points 22.5 → 33 · 10.5 above the line · played 29.6 min · no final price

Breanna Stewart · points 19.5 → 26 · 6.5 above the line · played 31.7 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Sophie Cunningham · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 21.7 min · no final price

Sabrina Ionescu · points 16.5 → 12 · 4.5 below the line · played 33.5 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88

Aliyah Boston · points 16.5 → 15 · 1.5 below the line · played 23.7 min · no final price

Jonquel Jones · points 13.5 → 13 · 0.5 below the line · played 27.4 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Caitlin Clark · points 17.5 → 17 · 0.5 below the line · played 26.2 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

IND vs NYL · last 19 games · NYL leads · IND record 5–14 · average score 85.3–93.5 · IND has lost by 8.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Aug · IND 102 at NYL 109IND lost

11 Aug · NYL 92 at IND 106IND won

18 Jul · NYL 88 at IND 108IND won

6 Jun · IND 75 at NYL 83IND lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.0 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.4% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.6 vs average

How the game odds moved

Coolbet first had NYL expected to win by 1.5, expected total 172.5 (Fri 03:17 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 1.5, expected total 175.5 (Fri 22:13 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Monique Billings · O 5.5 rebounds−101value_edge_pct +14.00 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Monique Billings Over 5.5 REBWIN +0.99ubet −101 → close −154 · CLV +10.4¢ · bet_clv:142827 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · actual 6 · 17.8 min · bench

Data fetches · 43

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 157 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 168 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 199 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 206 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 210 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 238 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 239 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 365 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 375 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 392 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 395 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 258 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 536 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 665 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 33 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 86 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 360 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 377 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 385 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 890 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 394 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 399 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1149 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 677 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 731 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 734 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 737 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 745 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 995 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.