WNBA · Jul 30 gameAll props Full sheet

Minnesota Lynx at Toronto Tempo

FinalMIN 104 – TOR 72Page updated 03:38 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 1 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

1Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available

1 player has a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Williams, Howard, Key, Pouye have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 9 of 19 estimates.

Conde: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 22.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 more than usual

Kayla McBrideOver 2.5 rebounds

LostActual 0

Posted odds1.98Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Kayla’s rebounds

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 1.98. Last price before tip: 1.98.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

First recorded: 1.89 at DraftKings, Wed 17:42 UTC. Latest included: 1.76 at DraftKings, Thu 23:37 UTC. The 2.5 line held.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 1.50 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available · Sat 23:45 UTC · 2, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Players and minutes20 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Minnesota Lynx

Kayla McBride · 32 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 0 actual

Olivia Miles · 30 min expected

points 18.5 → 16 actual

Napheesa Collier · 28 min expected

points 19.5 → 16 actual

Courtney Williams · 25 min expected

points 11.5 → 16 actual

Natasha Howard · 25 min expected

points 12.5 → 9 actual

4 more players · no line in this feed

Nia Coffey20 min · source estimate

Dorka Juhasz17 min · source estimate

Maya Caldwell10 min · source estimate

Antonia Delaere5 min · source estimate

Toronto Tempo

Maria Conde · 29 min expected

points 11.5 → 5 actual

Marina Mabrey · 29 min expected

points 21.5 → 16 actual

Julie Allemand · 28 min expected

points 7.5 → 0 actual

Laura Juskaite · 27 min expected

points 9.5 → 19 actual

7 more players · no line in this feed

Nyara Sabally23 min · source estimate

Isabelle HarrisonOut · Left Knee

Kiki Rice15 min · source estimate

Temi Fagbenle15 min · source estimate

Kia Nurse12 min · source estimate

Teonni Key1 min · source estimate

Tima Pouye1 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

MIN expected to win by about 12 · both teams together expected to score about 185.5 points · odds to win: MIN 1.15, TOR 6.06

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 19:35 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 03:38 UTC

Who is out

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 23:45 UTC) · 2, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Harrison · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Fri 19:30 UTC) · 23, 29 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Bankole · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 19, 20 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Cechova · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 16:00 UTC) · 11, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

Conde: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 22.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 24 of the 117 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Sykes out (Sat 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harrison out (Fri 19:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bankole out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Cechova out (Sun 16:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start · 2 lines checked, 1 scored but not picked · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

Kayla McBride · rebounds 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 24.5 min (32 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.98 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

8 other players with a posted line

Julie Allemand · points 7.5 → 0 · 7.5 below the line · played 22.5 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.03

Laura Juskaite · points 9.5 → 19 · 9.5 above the line · played 29.6 min (27 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.97, Under —

Maria Conde · points 11.5 → 5 · 6.5 below the line · played 27.6 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Courtney Williams · points 11.5 → 16 · 4.5 above the line · played 25 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Natasha Howard · points 12.5 → 9 · 3.5 below the line · played 23.6 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Marina Mabrey · points 21.5 → 16 · 5.5 below the line · played 27.9 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.81

Napheesa Collier · points 19.5 → 16 · 3.5 below the line · played 21.8 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.75

Olivia Miles · points 18.5 → 16 · 2.5 below the line · played 22.8 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

TOR vs MIN · last 3 games · MIN leads · TOR record 0–3 · average score 79.0–101.3 · TOR has lost by 22.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Jul · MIN 104 at TOR 72TOR lost

28 Jul · TOR 93 at MIN 100TOR lost

21 May · TOR 72 at MIN 100TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.2+7.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 12, expected total 186 (Thu 02:46 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 12, expected total 185.5 (Thu 19:35 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Kayla McBride · O 2.5 rebounds−102value_edge_pct +5.97 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Kayla McBride Over 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −102 → close −102 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:187617 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.5% · unexplained · actual 0 · 24.5 min · started

Julie Allemand Over 0.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −175 → close −225 · CLV +5.6¢ · bet_clv:187616 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 0 · 22.5 min · startedAllemand took only two three-point attempts in 22 minutes despite 6 assists, missing both from beyond the arc to fall short of the 0.5 line. Her 8% usage rate reflected limited offensive opportunities in a game where she functioned primarily as a facilitator rather than a scorer.

Data fetches · 44

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 205 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 256 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 280 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 282 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 423 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 444 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 456 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 464 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 470 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 476 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 485 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 107 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 624 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 784 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 75 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 77 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 78 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 228 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 378 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 401 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1523 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1086 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1300 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1437 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1490 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1555 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1601 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1608 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1610 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1714 ms

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