New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces

FinalNYL 99 – LVA 104Page updated 03:38 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

1 player has a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Wilson, Young have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 10 of 17 estimates.

Johannes: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 12.8 in the last 5 games, about 7.2 more than usual

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes19 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart · 34 min expected

points 20.5 → 26 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · 30 min expected

points 18.5 → 15 actual

Jonquel Jones · 28 min expected

points 13.5 → 8 actual

Pauline Astier · 22 min expected

points 8.5 → 19 actual

Marine Johannes · 20 min expected

points 7.5 → 0 actual

5 more players · no line in this feed

Rebecca Allen24 min · source estimate

Marine Fauthoux23 min · source estimate

Han Xu15 min · source estimate

Anneli MaleyOut · Developmental Player

Raquel Carrera4 min · source estimate

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · 33 min expected

points 25.5 → 33 actual

Jackie Young · 33 min expected

points 18.5 → 29 actual

Chelsea Gray · 32 min expected

points 11.5 → 16 actual

Jewell Loyd · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 6 actual

NaLyssa Smith · 23 min expected

points 10.5 → 7 actual

4 more players · no line in this feed

Brianna Turner18 min · source estimate

Stephanie Talbot17 min · source estimate

Dana Evans16 min · source estimate

Kierstan BellOut · Right Leg

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LVA expected to win by about 4 · both teams together expected to score about 182 points · odds to win: NYL 2.49, LVA 1.57

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 19:35 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 03:38 UTC

Who is out

Parker-Tyus · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 22, 15 and 15 min in the last 3 games

Pissott · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Bell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 1, 2 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Yamamoto · did not play last game

Latson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 3, 3 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Maley · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 3, 5 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Laney-Hamilton · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 11, 13 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Fiebich · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:15 UTC) · 29, 34 and 16 min in the last 3 games

Carrera · did not play last game

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 8, 27 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

Johannes: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 12.8 in the last 5 games, about 7.2 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 21 of the 131 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Parker-Tyus out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pissott out (Sat 23:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bell out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Yamamoto out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Latson out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Maley out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Laney-Hamilton out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fiebich out (Sat 23:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Carrera out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 1 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

10 other players with a posted line

Pauline Astier · points 8.5 → 19 · 10.5 above the line · played 21.5 min (22 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Marine Johannes · points 7.5 → 0 · 7.5 below the line · played 8.4 min (20 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.80

Jackie Young · points 18.5 → 29 · 10.5 above the line · played 35.7 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.94

Jonquel Jones · points 13.5 → 8 · 5.5 below the line · played 27.7 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.89

Chelsea Gray · points 11.5 → 16 · 4.5 above the line · played 33.8 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

NaLyssa Smith · points 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 19.1 min (23 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

A'ja Wilson · points 25.5 → 33 · 7.5 above the line · played 35.7 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.02

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 26.9 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Breanna Stewart · points 20.5 → 26 · 5.5 above the line · played 37.3 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Sabrina Ionescu · points 18.5 → 15 · 3.5 below the line · played 29.1 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

LVA vs NYL · last 25 games · NYL leads · LVA record 10–15 · average score 84.5–87.0 · LVA has lost by 2.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Aug · LVA 71 at NYL 111LVA lost

30 Jul · NYL 99 at LVA 104LVA won

30 Jun · LVA 85 at NYL 93LVA lost

23 Jun · NYL 87 at LVA 76LVA lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.0 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.4% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up86.2 points · 33.5 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.5% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 13.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

LVA gives up 86.2 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 5, expected total 181 (Thu 01:46 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 4, expected total 182 (Thu 19:35 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 47

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 71 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 90 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 92 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 165 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 205 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 214 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 220 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 247 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 265 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 103 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 473 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 818 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 71 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 228 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 347 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 350 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 351 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 370 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 378 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 382 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 402 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 405 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 410 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 416 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 441 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 449 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1284 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1304 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1392 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1552 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1560 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1613 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1612 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1661 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1687 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1739 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.