Dallas Wings at Washington Mystics

FinalDAL 75 – WAS 81Page updated 02:43 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 2 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

2Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

3 players have a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Ogunbowale, Shepard, Olsen, Harmon have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 11 of 24 estimates.

Kuier: expected to play 18 minutes, averaged 27.0 in the last 5 games, about 9.0 fewer than usual

Onyenwere: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 22.0 in the last 5 games, about 6.0 more than usual

Betts: expected to play 14 minutes, averaged 20.8 in the last 5 games, about 6.8 fewer than usual

Arike OgunbowaleOver 2.5 rebounds

LostActual 2

Posted odds1.87Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Arike’s rebounds

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 1.87. Last price before tip: 1.68.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

First recorded: 2.00 at FanDuel, Thu 05:47 UTC. Latest included: 1.83 at BetRivers, Fri 23:13 UTC. The 2.5 line held.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 0.90 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Paige BueckersOver 5.5 assists

LostActual 2

Posted odds1.76

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes24 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Dallas Wings

Paige Bueckers · 33 min expected

assists 5.5 → 2 actual

Arike Ogunbowale · 32 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 2 actual

Jessica Shepard · 32 min expected

points 13.5 → 8 actual

Azzi Fudd · 31 min expected

points 13.5 → 8 actual

Awak Kuier · 18 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 1 actual

7 more players · no line in this feed

Alanna Smith14 min · source estimate

Maddy Siegrist12 min · source estimate

Aziaha James8 min · source estimate

Sug Sutton7 min · source estimate

Odyssey Sims6 min · source estimate

Li Yueru5 min · source estimate

Alysha Clark2 min · source estimate

Washington Mystics

Sonia Citron · 33 min expected

points 16.5 → 16 actual

Kiki Iriafen · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 22 actual

Shakira Austin · 29 min expected

points 15.5 → 28 actual

Michaela Onyenwere · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Georgia Amoore · 24 min expected

points 6.5 → 2 actual

Lauren Betts · 14 min expected

points 5.5 → 3 actual

6 more players · no line in this feed

Cotie McMahon22 min · source estimate

Alicia Florez7 min · source estimate

Cassandre Prosper7 min · source estimate

Angela Dugalic4 min · source estimate

Lucy Olsen1 min · source estimate

Rori Harmon1 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

DAL expected to win by about 3 · both teams together expected to score about 166.5 points · odds to win: DAL 1.66, WAS 2.29

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 19:41 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 02:43 UTC

Who is out

Dugalic · did not play last game

Littlepage-Buggs · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 4, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Verona · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6 min in the last game

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6, 7 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

Kuier: expected to play 18 minutes, averaged 27.0 in the last 5 games, about 9.0 fewer than usual

Onyenwere: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 22.0 in the last 5 games, about 6.0 more than usual

Betts: expected to play 14 minutes, averaged 20.8 in the last 5 games, about 6.8 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

DAL also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 16 of the 120 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Dugalic out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Verona out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 2 picks won0 won, 2 lost · −2.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 4.3% higher than the last before the start · 3 lines checked, 1 scored but not picked · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

Paige Bueckers · assists 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 33.8 min (33 expected)

Pick: Over 5.5 at 1.76 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Arike Ogunbowale · rebounds 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.5 min (32 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.87 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

9 other players with a posted line

Shakira Austin · points 15.5 → 28 · 12.5 above the line · played 35.5 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.98

Awak Kuier · rebounds 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 4.8 min (18 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.78, Under —

Georgia Amoore · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 17.7 min (24 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Kiki Iriafen · points 14.5 → 22 · 7.5 above the line · played 27.5 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.89

Lauren Betts · points 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 17.1 min (14 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Jessica Shepard · points 13.5 → 8 · 5.5 below the line · played 33 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.96

Azzi Fudd · points 13.5 → 8 · 5.5 below the line · played 32.8 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Michaela Onyenwere · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.2 min (28 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Sonia Citron · points 16.5 → 16 · 0.5 below the line · played 35.6 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.82

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

WAS vs DAL · last 16 games · WAS leads · WAS record 10–6 · average score 83.0–83.3 · WAS has lost by 0.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Aug · DAL 92 at WAS 96WAS won

31 Jul · DAL 75 at WAS 81WAS won

18 May · WAS 69 at DAL 92WAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up86.0 points · 33.2 rebounds · 20.0 assists · 8.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.7 opponent turnovers

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 86.0 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.2−4.0 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 2.5, expected total 169 (Fri 03:08 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 3, expected total 166.5 (Fri 19:41 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Arike Ogunbowale · O 2.5 rebounds−115value_edge_pct +3.07 · kelly 0.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Paige Bueckers · O 5.5 assists−132value_edge_pct −1.51 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 3

Azzi Fudd Over 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −195 → close −167 · CLV −3.6¢ · bet_clv:192306 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.7% · bad_price · actual 0 · 32.8 min · startedFudd recorded zero assists despite 33 minutes and 18% usage, as she was largely a scorer-only on a poor shooting night (3-11 FG, 36% TS) with no secondary playmaking involvement. The combination of inefficient shot-taking and minimal ball movement—just one turnover in 33 minutes—left her with no dimes in a blowout loss.

Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −115 → close −146 · CLV +5.9¢ · bet_clv:192305 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 30.5 min · startedOgunbowale came up one rebound short despite efficient scoring (20 pts on 68% TS%), as her 30 minutes and high usage were concentrated on perimeter scoring rather than offensive glass work in a game that didn't create additional rebounding opportunities for her.

Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −132 → close −148 · CLV +2.8¢ · bet_clv:192304 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 33.8 min · startedBueckers played 34 minutes with 28% usage but recorded just 2 assists despite scoring 23 points, suggesting she operated primarily as a scorer rather than a facilitator in this game. The lack of ball movement and playmaking opportunities—evidenced by zero turnovers across high volume—fell well short of the 5.5 assist threshold.

Data fetches · 50

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 30 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 117 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 122 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 127 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 130 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 138 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 145 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 145 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 464 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 512 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 306 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 310 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 314 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 323 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 326 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 327 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 332 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 427 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 433 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 437 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 809 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 810 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 486 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 492 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 495 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 498 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 501 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 506 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 520 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 525 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1155 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1458 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1487 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1488 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1566 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1666 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1672 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1736 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1764 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1834 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.