WNBA · Jul 31 gameAll props Full sheet

Seattle Storm at Atlanta Dream

FinalSEA 89 – ATL 98Page updated 02:43 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 7 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

7Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 2 availability alerts

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play

Out Mair · earlier listed as available

1 player has a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Magbegor, Dolson, Jones, Hillmon have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 10 of 19 estimates.

Fam: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 26.0 in the last 5 games, about 5.0 more than usual

Dominique MalongaOver 8.5 rebounds

WonActual 13

Posted odds2.17Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Dominique’s rebounds

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.17. Last price before tip: 2.20.

Recorded result: +1.17 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

Pinnacle on this line: 2.20 · quote observed Fri 19:41 UTC.

First recorded: 2.20 at Pinnacle, Fri 19:41 UTC. Latest included: 2.20 at Pinnacle, Fri 19:41 UTC. The 8.5 line held.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 0.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Natisha HiedemanOver 2.5 rebounds

WonActual 5

Posted odds1.98

Awa FamOver 5.5 rebounds

WonActual 9

Posted odds1.87

Awa FamUnder 13.5 points

WonActual 8

Posted odds1.83

Allisha GrayOver 18.5 points

LostActual 16

Posted odds1.81

Jade MelbourneOver 6.5 points

WonActual 9

Posted odds1.79

Angel ReeseUnder 12.5 rebounds

LostActual 13

Posted odds1.71

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play · Sun 22:00 UTC · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games

Out Mair · earlier listed as available · Thu 01:15 UTC · 5, 2 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Players and minutes19 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Seattle Storm

Awa Fam · 31 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 9 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · 30 min expected

points 13.5 → 9 actual

Natisha Hiedeman · 30 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 5 actual

Dominique Malonga · 28 min expected

rebounds 8.5 → 13 actual

Jade Melbourne · 25 min expected

points 6.5 → 9 actual

5 more players · no line in this feed

Katie Lou Samuelson15 min · source estimate

Jordan Horston13 min · source estimate

Zia Cooke12 min · source estimate

Ezi Magbegor8 min · source estimate

Stefanie Dolson8 min · source estimate

Atlanta Dream

Allisha Gray · 35 min expected

points 18.5 → 16 actual

Rhyne Howard · 35 min expected

points 17.5 → 9 actual

Angel Reese · 32 min expected

rebounds 12.5 → 13 actual

Jordin Canada · 31 min expected

points 11.5 → 10 actual

Brionna Jones · 24 min expected

points 10.5 → 14 actual

4 more players · no line in this feed

Naz Hillmon24 min · source estimate

Isobel Borlase12 min · source estimate

Madina Okot5 min · source estimate

Sika Kone2 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

ATL expected to win by about 12.5 · both teams together expected to score about 180 points · odds to win: SEA 5.84, ATL 1.16

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 19:41 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 02:43 UTC

Who is out

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Okot · did not play last game

Walker-Kimbrough · did not play last game

Kone · did not play last game

Paopao · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sun 20:30 UTC) · 3, 4 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Holmes · did not play last game

Out Mair · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 01:15 UTC) · 5, 2 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Thierry · did not play last game

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

Fam: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 26.0 in the last 5 games, about 5.0 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 148 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Nye out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Okot out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Walker-Kimbrough out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Paopao out (Sun 20:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Holmes out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Mair out (Thu 01:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Thierry out · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 5 of 7 picks won5 won, 2 lost · +2.63 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.5% higher than the last before the start · 11 lines checked, 4 scored but not picked · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

Natisha Hiedeman · rebounds 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 33.8 min (30 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.98 → Won +0.98 per 1 staked

Awa Fam · rebounds 5.5 → 9 · 3.5 above the line · played 29.1 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 5.5 at 1.87 → Won +0.87 per 1 staked

Dominique Malonga · rebounds 8.5 → 13 · 4.5 above the line · played 25.3 min (28 expected)

Pick: Over 8.5 at 2.17 → Won +1.17 per 1 staked

Jade Melbourne · points 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 25.3 min (25 expected)

Pick: Over 6.5 at 1.79 → Won +0.79 per 1 staked

Allisha Gray · points 18.5 → 16 · 2.5 below the line · played 31.1 min (35 expected)

Pick: Over 18.5 at 1.81 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Angel Reese · rebounds 12.5 → 13 · 0.5 above the line · played 37.6 min (32 expected)

Pick: Under 12.5 at 1.71 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market

4 other players with a posted line

Rhyne Howard · points 17.5 → 9 · 8.5 below the line · played 34.7 min (35 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Flau'jae Johnson · points 13.5 → 9 · 4.5 below the line · played 25.8 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Brionna Jones · points 10.5 → 14 · 3.5 above the line · played 17 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Jordin Canada · points 11.5 → 10 · 1.5 below the line · played 31.4 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

ATL vs SEA · last 16 games · ATL leads · ATL record 8–8 · average score 81.3–80.1 · ATL has won by 1.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

31 Jul · SEA 89 at ATL 98ATL won

9 Jul · SEA 78 at ATL 89ATL won

27 Jun · ATL 90 at SEA 105ATL lost

What each defense gives up per game

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up84.1 points · 31.6 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.6% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 15.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.2+1.8 vs average

ATL gives up 84.1 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.2−3.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 12.5, expected total 176.5 (Fri 03:08 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 12.5, expected total 180 (Fri 19:41 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 10

Jade Melbourne · O 6.5 points−127value_edge_pct +0.31 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Awa Fam · O 5.5 rebounds−115value_edge_pct −0.94 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Dominique Malonga · O 8.5 rebounds+117value_edge_pct −2.48 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Dominique Malonga · O 7.5 rebounds−139value_edge_pct −2.60 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Natisha Hiedeman · O 2.5 rebounds−102value_edge_pct −3.20 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12

Awa Fam · U 13.5 points−121value_edge_pct −4.14 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15

Awa Fam · U 12.5 points−103value_edge_pct −4.27 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 16

Allisha Gray · O 18.5 points−123value_edge_pct −4.27 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17

Awa Fam · O 4.5 rebounds−116value_edge_pct −5.31 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 19

Angel Reese · U 12.5 rebounds−140value_edge_pct −5.44 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 20

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 11

Dominique Malonga Over 7.5 REBWIN +0.72ubet −139 → close −122 · CLV −3.2¢ · bet_clv:191577 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.6% · actual 13 · 25.3 min · startedMalonga dominated the glass with 13 rebounds in 25 minutes, nearly doubling the over line, as her elite efficiency (8-10 FG) and high usage on a smaller sample gave her multiple opportunities to crash the boards.

Jade Melbourne Over 6.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −127 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:191574 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.1% · actual 9 · 25.3 min · startedMelbourne's 4-for-4 free-throw shooting accounted for nearly half her 9 points, allowing her to clear 6.5 despite a poor 2-for-7 field-goal night and limited 25 minutes of play. The efficient line at the stripe compensated for her 28.6% overall shooting to deliver the over.

Awa Fam Over 5.5 REBWIN +0.87ubet −115 → close −128 · CLV +2.7¢ · bet_clv:191571 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.0% · actual 9 · 29.1 min · startedFam secured 9 rebounds in 29 minutes of heavy run, easily clearing the 5.5 line despite modest scoring (8 pts on 11% usage), as her role remained anchored on the glass and interior presence rather than offensive creation.

Awa Fam Under 12.5 PTSWIN +0.97ubet −103 → close −103 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:191569 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.6% · actual 8 · 29.1 min · startedFam's 11% usage rate—lowest on the team—left her with just four field-goal attempts despite playing 29 minutes, resulting in only 8 points well below the 12.5 line. Her limited offensive touches reflected a reduced role in the offense, even as her efficiency remained solid at 69% TS.

Flau'jae Johnson Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.64ubet −156 → close −162 · CLV +0.9¢ · bet_clv:191568 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.8% · actual 3 · 25.8 min · startedJohnson's 3 assists cleared the 2.5 line despite a rough shooting night (2-11 FG), as she maintained ball-handling duties and playmaking responsibility with 26 minutes and 32% usage in an efficient role distribution for her team.

Dominique Malonga Over 8.5 REBWIN +1.17ubet +117 → close +120 · CLV −0.6¢ · bet_clv:191576 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.9% · actual 13 · 25.3 min · startedMalonga dominated the glass with 13 rebounds in 25 minutes, posting a +4.5 rebound differential over the over line despite modest playing time, powered by efficient interior presence and a team that generated plenty of rebounding opportunities. Her elite true shooting (80%) and high-volume field goal attempts (10 FG attempts) kept her on the floor and in position for boards throughout.

Allisha Gray Over 18.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −123 · bet_clv:191567 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.8% · unexplained · actual 16 · 31.1 min · startedGray fell just short despite heavy minutes (31) and solid volume (13 FG attempts), as poor overall efficiency—5-13 FG and 1-4 from three—left her two points shy of the line. Her 51% true shooting was below her usual standard and made up the difference on a night she couldn't generate enough makes to reach 18.5.

Angel Reese Under 12.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −140 → close −135 · CLV −0.9¢ · bet_clv:191575 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.2% · bad_price · actual 13 · 37.6 min · startedReese snagged 13 rebounds in a 38-minute, high-volume effort (22% usage), capitalizing on strong free-throw shooting (9-12) and staying out of foul trouble (4 PF) to exceed the 12.5 line by one board.

Awa Fam Over 4.5 REBWIN +0.86ubet −116 → close −116 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:191572 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.9% · actual 9 · 29.1 min · startedAwa Fam secured 9 rebounds across 29 minutes, doubling the over line despite modest offensive usage at 11%, as she dominated the glass with consistent effort on both ends. Her 3 personal fouls kept her on the court for most of the game, allowing her to accumulate the extra boards needed to clear the 4.5 threshold.

Awa Fam Under 13.5 PTSWIN +0.83ubet −121 → close −122 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:191570 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.5% · actual 8 · 29.1 min · started

Natisha Hiedeman Over 2.5 REBWIN +0.98ubet −102 → close −109 · CLV +1.7¢ · bet_clv:191573 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.9% · actual 5 · 33.8 min · startedHiedeman exceeded the 2.5 rebound line by pulling down 5 boards across 34 minutes of heavy usage (27%), translating her volume into rebounding opportunities despite a modest usage rate. Her high floor time and involvement in ball movement (5 assists) kept her actively positioned for glass work.

Data fetches · 48

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 46 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 64 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 66 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 70 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 99 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 145 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 163 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 291 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 312 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 37 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 103 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 354 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 115 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 205 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 529 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 234 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 274 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 316 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 430 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 791 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 793 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 794 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 810 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 867 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 696 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 743 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1088 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 949 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 999 ms

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