WNBA · Aug 4 gameAll props Full sheet

Toronto Tempo at Golden State Valkyries

FinalTOR 81 – GSV 92Page updated 22:50 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 2 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

2Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 2 availability alerts

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available

Out Fagbenle · earlier listed as may not play

2 players have a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Allemand, Rice, Mabrey, Zandalasini, Williams, Salaun, Chen, Stokes, Charles, Hayes have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 12 of 21 estimates.

Conde: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 22.5 in the last 5 games, about 5.5 more than usual

Harrison: expected to play only 15 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Kiki RiceOver 9.5 points

LostActual 2

Posted odds1.77Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Kiki’s points

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 1.77. Last price before tip: 1.88.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

Pinnacle on this line: 1.88 · quote observed Wed 00:45 UTC.

First recorded: 2.05 at Pinnacle, Tue 20:13 UTC. Latest included: 2.00 at Pinnacle, Wed 01:45 UTC. The line changed from 10.5 to 9.5.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 0.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Laura JuskaiteOver 9.5 points

WonActual 11

Posted odds1.76

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available · Sat 23:45 UTC · 2, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Out Fagbenle · earlier listed as may not play · Tue 17:15 UTC · 20, 26 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Players and minutes21 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Toronto Tempo

Laura Juskaite · 28 min expected

points 9.5 → 11 actual

Maria Conde · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 17 actual

Julie Allemand · 25 min expected

points 6.5 → 7 actual

Kiki Rice · 25 min expected

points 9.5 → 2 actual

Marina Mabrey · 25 min expected

points 16.5 → 12 actual

Nyara Sabally · 20 min expected

points 10.5 → 21 actual

Isabelle Harrison · 15 min expected

points 8.5 → 3 actual

4 more players · no line in this feed

Aneesah Morrow15 min · source estimate

Temi Fagbenle10 min · source estimate

Kia Nurse8 min · source estimate

Teonni Key1 min · source estimate

Golden State Valkyries

Veronica Burton · 28 min expected

points 12.5 → 12 actual

Kayla Thornton · 24 min expected

points 8.5 → 20 actual

Cecilia Zandalasini · 20 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Gabby Williams · 20 min expected

points 14.5 → 10 actual

Janelle Salaun · 20 min expected

points 12.5 → 21 actual

Kaitlyn Chen · 20 min expected

points 6.5 → 2 actual

Kiah Stokes · 20 min expected

points 4.5 → 7 actual

3 more players · no line in this feed

Kaila Charles20 min · source estimate

Tiffany Hayes20 min · source estimate

Laeticia Amihere8 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

GSV expected to win by about 11.5 · both teams together expected to score about 169 points · odds to win: TOR 5.93, GSV 1.15

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 00:45 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 22:50 UTC

Who is out

Prechtel · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 21:00 UTC) · 4, 5 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Jocyte · did not play last game

Sowah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 4, 4 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Fingall · did not play last game

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 23:45 UTC) · 2, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Nurse · did not play last game

Bankole · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 19, 20 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Out Fagbenle · earlier listed as may not play (changed Tue 17:15 UTC) · 20, 26 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

Conde: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 22.5 in the last 5 games, about 5.5 more than usual

Harrison: expected to play only 15 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 30 of the 130 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out (Tue 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jocyte out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fingall out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sykes out (Sat 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nurse out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bankole out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fagbenle out (Tue 17:15 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 2 picks won1 won, 1 lost · −0.24 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.3% lower than the last before the start · 6 lines checked, 4 scored but not picked · checked Fri 02:52 UTC

Kiki Rice · points 9.5 → 2 · 7.5 below the line · played 22.9 min (25 expected)

Pick: Over 9.5 at 1.77 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market

Laura Juskaite · points 9.5 → 11 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.1 min (28 expected)

Pick: Over 9.5 at 1.76 → Won +0.76 per 1 staked

12 other players with a posted line

Kayla Thornton · points 8.5 → 20 · 11.5 above the line · played 28.3 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.94

Maria Conde · points 8.5 → 17 · 8.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.76

Nyara Sabally · points 10.5 → 21 · 10.5 above the line · played 31.7 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Kaitlyn Chen · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 7.5 min (20 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Janelle Salaun · points 12.5 → 21 · 8.5 above the line · played 20.5 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.83

Isabelle Harrison · points 8.5 → 3 · 5.5 below the line · played 7.9 min (15 expected) · no final price

Kiah Stokes · points 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 27.2 min (20 expected) · no final price

Cecilia Zandalasini · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 18.9 min (20 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 2.35, Under —

Gabby Williams · points 14.5 → 10 · 4.5 below the line · played 19.7 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Marina Mabrey · points 16.5 → 12 · 4.5 below the line · played 35.4 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Julie Allemand · points 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.5 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.02

Veronica Burton · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 32.5 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

GSV vs TOR · last 3 games · GSV leads · GSV record 3–0 · average score 90.3–78.3 · GSV has won by 12 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

4 Aug · TOR 81 at GSV 92GSV won

2 Aug · TOR 79 at GSV 96GSV won

8 Jul · GSV 83 at TOR 75GSV won

What each defense gives up per game

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

GSV gives up75.9 points · 32.5 rebounds · 18.3 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.7% of shots · 33.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.2+7.2 vs average

GSV gives up 75.9 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.2−11.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 13, expected total 168 (Tue 01:38 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 11.5, expected total 169 (Wed 00:45 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Laura Juskaite · O 9.5 points−132value_edge_pct −4.29 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Kiki Rice · O 9.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.30 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 6

Maria Conde Over 3.5 REBWIN +0.65ubet −155 → close −129 · CLV −4.5¢ · bet_clv:236236 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.6% · actual 6 · 30.1 min · startedConde secured 6 rebounds in 30 minutes despite modest usage, hitting 71% TS and staying out of foul trouble (1 PF) to consistently get back on the glass and comfortably clear the 3.5 line.

Laura Juskaite Over 9.5 PTSWIN +0.76ubet −132 → close +110 · CLV −9.3¢ · bet_clv:236233 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.5% · actual 11 · 25.1 min · startedJuskaite's perfect 4-for-4 from the free-throw line and efficient 63% true shooting pushed her past the 9.5 total despite shooting just 3-7 from the field, as 25 minutes of playing time gave her enough volume to cash the over.

Kiah Stokes Under 5.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −164 · bet_clv:236238 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · unexplained · actual 7 · 27.2 min · started

Julie Allemand Over 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −143 → close −148 · CLV +0.8¢ · bet_clv:236235 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 30.5 min · startedAllemand played 30 minutes but grabbed only 1 rebound despite solid offensive efficiency (70% TS), suggesting limited box-out opportunities or a mismatch in positioning against the opponent's frontcourt. Her assist-heavy role (8 ast) and 8% usage rate indicate she operated primarily as a facilitator rather than a rebounder, making the over 2.5 threshold difficult to hit.

Kiki Rice Over 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −130 → close −114 · CLV −3.3¢ · bet_clv:236237 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.1% · bad_price · actual 2 · 22.9 min · startedRice shot 0-for-3 from the field and made only her free throws, finishing 2-for-6 overall (33% FG) despite playing 23 minutes—a brutal efficiency collapse that left her 7.5 points short of the over. Five personal fouls also limited her aggressiveness and touched the floor time's value.

Laura Juskaite Under 4.5 REBWIN +0.63ubet −159 → close −172 · CLV +1.8¢ · bet_clv:236234 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.9% · actual 3 · 25.1 min · startedJuskaite's limited 25 minutes and modest usage rate (21%) kept her rebound opportunities scarce, and she grabbed just 3 boards despite efficient shooting. The under hit comfortably as her bench role restricted the volume needed to reach 4.5 rebounds.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 92 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 96 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 97 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 99 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 215 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 227 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 236 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 269 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 275 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 398 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 569 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 194 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 648 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 270 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 273 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 288 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 950 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 787 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 863 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 744 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 925 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 983 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 989 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 989 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1125 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1129 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1130 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1133 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1132 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.