Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever

FinalLVA 86 – IND 84Page updated 02:07 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

3 players have a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Loyd, Smith have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 10 of 19 estimates.

Young: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 38.7 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 fewer than usual

Gray: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 39.1 in the last 5 games, about 7.1 fewer than usual

Billings: expected to play 27 minutes, averaged 12.2 in the last 5 games, about 14.8 more than usual

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes19 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Las Vegas Aces

A'ja Wilson · 33 min expected

points 27.5 → 26 actual

Jackie Young · 33 min expected

points 18.5 → 22 actual

Chelsea Gray · 32 min expected

points 12.5 → 11 actual

Jewell Loyd · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 9 actual

NaLyssa Smith · 26 min expected

points 11.5 → 14 actual

4 more players · no line in this feed

Brianna Turner17 min · source estimate

Dana Evans15 min · source estimate

Stephanie Talbot10 min · source estimate

Kierstan Bell8 min · source estimate

Indiana Fever

Kelsey Mitchell · 34 min expected

points 24.5 → 28 actual

Caitlin Clark · 33 min expected

points 21.5 → 20 actual

Aliyah Boston · 30 min expected

points 16.5 → 21 actual

Monique Billings · 27 min expected

points 8.5 → 8 actual

Sophie Cunningham · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 2 actual

5 more players · no line in this feed

Makayla Timpson20 min · source estimate

Lexie Hull16 min · source estimate

Tyasha Harris10 min · source estimate

Myisha Hines-Allen3 min · source estimate

Raven Johnson2 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

IND expected to win by about 1 · both teams together expected to score about 191 points · odds to win: LVA 2.00, IND 1.85

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 21:45 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 02:07 UTC

Who is out

Hall · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 14, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Dantas · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 8, 2 and 22 min in the last 3 games

VanSlooten · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 2, 10 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Onyiah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 12 and 1 min in the last 2 games

Hines-Allen · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 20, 13 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Johnson · did not play last game

Parker-Tyus · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 5, 8 and 12 min in the last 3 games

Pissott · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:00 UTC) · 2, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Yamamoto · did not play last game

Latson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 3, 3 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

Young: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 38.7 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 fewer than usual

Gray: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 39.1 in the last 5 games, about 7.1 fewer than usual

Billings: expected to play 27 minutes, averaged 12.2 in the last 5 games, about 14.8 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA had 29 days off before this game · IND had 37 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 22 of the 128 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Hall out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Dantas out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: VanSlooten out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Onyiah out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hines-Allen out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Johnson out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Parker-Tyus out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pissott out (Sat 23:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Yamamoto out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Latson out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Sat 23:52 UTC

10 other players with a posted line

Sophie Cunningham · points 8.5 → 2 · 6.5 below the line · played 28.1 min (25 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Aliyah Boston · points 16.5 → 21 · 4.5 above the line · played 37.6 min (30 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · points 11.5 → 14 · 2.5 above the line · played 37.3 min (26 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Jackie Young · points 18.5 → 22 · 3.5 above the line · played 35 min (33 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Kelsey Mitchell · points 24.5 → 28 · 3.5 above the line · played 39.1 min (34 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · High-Leverage / OT Extension · no final price

Chelsea Gray · points 12.5 → 11 · 1.5 below the line · played 40.4 min (32 expected) · Way Off Outlier · High-Leverage / OT Extension · no final price

Caitlin Clark · points 21.5 → 20 · 1.5 below the line · played 38.4 min (33 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · High-Leverage / OT Extension · no final price

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.2 min (26 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Monique Billings · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 20.7 min (27 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 27.5 → 26 · 1.5 below the line · played 37.5 min (33 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

IND vs LVA · last 24 games · LVA leads · IND record 7–17 · average score 82.0–86.0 · IND has lost by 4.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Oct · IND 83 at LVA 94IND lost

29 Sep · LVA 89 at IND 99IND won

27 Sep · IND 85 at LVA 102IND lost

6 Aug · LVA 86 at IND 84IND lost

12 Jul · IND 109 at LVA 75IND won

5 Jul · IND 84 at LVA 68IND won

30 Sep · IND 98 at LVA 107IND lost

28 Sep · LVA 83 at IND 90IND won

26 Sep · LVA 84 at IND 72IND lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 47

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 42 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 58 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 59 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 150 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 91 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 155 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 182 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 184 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 195 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 395 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 746 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 215 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 253 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 257 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 268 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 273 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 326 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 327 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 346 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 347 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 352 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 353 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 376 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 379 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 381 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 384 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 386 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 389 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 396 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 399 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 405 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 409 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 414 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 417 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 433 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.