Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics

FinalATL 74 – WAS 79Page updated 00:58 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play

1 player has a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Nye, Okot, Walker-Kimbrough, Kone, McMahon, Amoore have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 12 of 22 estimates.

Hillmon: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 31.4 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 fewer than usual

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play · Sun 22:00 UTC · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games

Players and minutes22 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Atlanta Dream

Angel Reese · 33 min expected

points 15.5 → 7 actual

Rhyne Howard · 33 min expected

points 17.5 → 19 actual

Allisha Gray · 31 min expected

points 17.5 → 26 actual

Jordin Canada · 31 min expected

points 10.5 → 9 actual

Naz Hillmon · 26 min expected

points 7.5 → 5 actual

Brionna Jones · 20 min expected

points 9.5 → 4 actual

6 more players · no line in this feed

Isobel Borlase14 min · source estimate

Jaylyn Sherrod8 min · source estimate

Aaliyah Nye1 min · source estimate

Madina Okot1 min · source estimate

Shatori Walker-Kimbrough1 min · source estimate

Sika Kone1 min · source estimate

Washington Mystics

Sonia Citron · 35 min expected

points 16.5 → 14 actual

Shakira Austin · 34 min expected

points 17.5 → 21 actual

Kiki Iriafen · 27 min expected

points 15.5 → 15 actual

Michaela Onyenwere · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 0 actual

Cotie McMahon · 24 min expected

points 7.5 → 11 actual

Georgia Amoore · 24 min expected

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Lauren Betts · 18 min expected

points 6.5 → 5 actual

3 more players · no line in this feed

Cassandre Prosper6 min · source estimate

Alicia Florez4 min · source estimate

Angela Dugalic2 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

ATL expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 170 points · odds to win: ATL 1.45, WAS 2.85

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 22:12 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 00:58 UTC

Who is out

Dugalic · did not play last game

Littlepage-Buggs · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 4, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Kone · did not play last game

Paopao · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:00 UTC) · 3, 2 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

Hillmon: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 31.4 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

ATL had 11 days off before this game · WAS had 42 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 22 of the 126 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Dugalic out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nye out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Paopao out (Sat 23:00 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Sun 23:52 UTC

13 other players with a posted line

Michaela Onyenwere · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 21.1 min (26 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.90

Georgia Amoore · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 14.2 min (24 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Foul Trouble / Early Exit · no final price

Brionna Jones · points 9.5 → 4 · 5.5 below the line · played 21.5 min (20 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Angel Reese · points 15.5 → 7 · 8.5 below the line · played 33.3 min (33 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Allisha Gray · points 17.5 → 26 · 8.5 above the line · played 37.7 min (31 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Cotie McMahon · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 27.9 min (24 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Naz Hillmon · points 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 20 min (26 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Foul Trouble / Early Exit · no final price

Lauren Betts · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.1 min (18 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Shakira Austin · points 17.5 → 21 · 3.5 above the line · played 27 min (34 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Sonia Citron · points 16.5 → 14 · 2.5 below the line · played 32.5 min (35 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Jordin Canada · points 10.5 → 9 · 1.5 below the line · played 34.7 min (31 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Rhyne Howard · points 17.5 → 19 · 1.5 above the line · played 31.1 min (33 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Kiki Iriafen · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 31.8 min (27 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

WAS vs ATL · last 21 games · ATL leads · WAS record 10–11 · average score 80.1–81.1 · WAS has lost by 1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Sep · ATL 93 at WAS 75WAS lost

27 Sep · WAS 77 at ATL 92WAS lost

7 Aug · ATL 74 at WAS 79WAS won

2 Jul · ATL 76 at WAS 81WAS won

6 Jun · WAS 77 at ATL 109WAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up82.7 points · 32.1 rebounds · 18.4 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 45.5% of shots · 34.1% from three-point range · 15.2 opponent turnovers

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.0−3.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 3.5, expected total 170.5 (Fri 01:47 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 6, expected total 170 (Fri 22:12 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 10 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 14 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 21 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 23 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 27 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 92 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 93 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 133 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 128 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 101 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 143 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 167 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 168 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 194 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 198 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 205 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 206 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 209 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 212 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 234 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 381 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 772 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 877 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.