WNBA · Finalupdated 00:17 UTC

Atlanta Dream vs Washington Mystics

at Washington Mystics

ATL expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 170 points · odds to win: ATL 1.45, WAS 2.85

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 22:12 UTC

ATL 74 – WAS 79

Final · 3 of 5 picks won

5 picks checked: 3 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ATL = Atlanta Dream, WAS = Washington Mystics.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

J. Canada · Over 7.5 assistsLostPosted at 2.29 · last price before start 2.29Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.29 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle 2.29, 351 min ago

First offered at 1.93 by Pinnacle (Fri 05:18 UTC); latest 1.56 at Pinnacle (Fri 23:12 UTC). The line moved from 7.5 to 6.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 1.20 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

S. Austin · Over 17.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.03 · last price before start 2.07Won +1.03 per 1 staked

R. Howard · Under 16.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.00 · last price before start 2.00Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

B. Jones · Over 5.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.98 · last price before start 1.97Won +0.98 per 1 staked

L. Betts · Over 3.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.72 · last price before start pendingWon +0.72 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Atlanta Dreamplaying WAS

Angel Reese · 33 min expected

points 15.5 → 7 actual

Rhyne Howard · 33 min expected

points 16.5 → 19 actual

Allisha Gray · 31 min expected

points 17.5 → 26 actual

Jordin Canada · 31 min expected

assists 7.5 → 7 actual

Naz Hillmon · 26 min expected

points 7.5 → 5 actual

Brionna Jones · 20 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 7 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Borlase (14 expected minutes) · Sherrod (8 min) · +4 more

Washington Mysticsplaying ATL

Sonia Citron · 35 min expected

points 16.5 → 14 actual

Shakira Austin · 34 min expected

points 17.5 → 21 actual

Kiki Iriafen · 27 min expected

points 15.5 → 15 actual

Michaela Onyenwere · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 0 actual

Cotie McMahon · 24 min expected

points 7.5 → 11 actual

Georgia Amoore · 24 min expected

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Lauren Betts · 18 min expected

points 6.5 → 5 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Prosper (6 expected minutes) · Florez (4 min) · Dugalic (2 min)

What could go wrong

updated 00:17 UTC

Who is out

Dugalic · did not play last game

Littlepage-Buggs · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 4, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Kone · did not play last game

Paopao · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sun 20:30 UTC) · 13, 7 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 6 players (Okot, Kone, Nye, Walker-Kimbrough, Amoore, McMahon) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Reese: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 27.4 in the last 5 games, about 5.6 more than usual

Austin: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 28.1 in the last 5 games, about 5.9 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 22 of the 126 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Dugalic out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nye out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Paopao out (Sun 20:30 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 3 of 5 picks won3 won, 2 lost · +0.73 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.2% lower than the last before the start · 8 lines checked, 3 scored but not picked · checked Sun 23:52 UTC

Brionna Jones · rebounds 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 21.5 min (20 expected)

Pick: Over 5.5 at 1.98 → Won +0.98 per 1 staked

Shakira Austin · points 17.5 → 21 · 3.5 above the line · played 27 min (34 expected)

Pick: Over 17.5 at 2.03 → Won +1.03 per 1 staked

Rhyne Howard · points 16.5 → 19 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.1 min (33 expected)

Pick: Under 16.5 at 2.00 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Jordin Canada · assists 7.5 → 7 · 0.5 below the line · played 34.7 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 7.5 at 2.29 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

9 other players with a posted line

Michaela Onyenwere · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 21.1 min (26 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.90

Georgia Amoore · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 14.2 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.81

Angel Reese · points 15.5 → 7 · 8.5 below the line · played 33.3 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.71

Allisha Gray · points 17.5 → 26 · 8.5 above the line · played 37.7 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Cotie McMahon · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 27.9 min (24 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.78

Naz Hillmon · points 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 20 min (26 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Lauren Betts · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.1 min (18 expected) · no final price

Sonia Citron · points 16.5 → 14 · 2.5 below the line · played 32.5 min (35 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.77

Kiki Iriafen · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 31.8 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.80

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

WAS vs ATL · last 19 games · WAS leads · WAS record 10–9 · average score 80.6–79.9 · WAS has won by 0.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

7 Aug · ATL 74 at WAS 79WAS won

2 Jul · ATL 76 at WAS 81WAS won

6 Jun · WAS 77 at ATL 109WAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up84.5 points · 31.0 rebounds · 19.2 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.9% of shots · 34.8% from three-point range · 15.4 opponent turnovers

WAS gives up82.7 points · 30.1 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.8% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 84.5 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−2.6 vs average

WAS gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 3.5, expected total 170.5 (Fri 01:47 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 6, expected total 170 (Fri 22:12 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 7

Jordin Canada · O 7.5 assists+129value_edge_pct +6.12 · kelly 1.20u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Shakira Austin · O 17.5 points+103value_edge_pct −2.29 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Brionna Jones · O 5.5 rebounds−102value_edge_pct −2.76 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Rhyne Howard · U 16.5 points+100value_edge_pct −2.78 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Rhyne Howard · U 17.5 points−124value_edge_pct −3.18 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Lauren Betts · O 3.5 rebounds−139value_edge_pct −4.45 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Shakira Austin · O 16.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.88 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 8

Brionna Jones Over 5.5 REBWIN +0.98ubet −102 → close −103 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:255454 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.1% · actual 7 · 21.5 min · startedJones secured 7 rebounds in 22 minutes despite struggling offensively (2-8 FG, 25% TS%), as her defensive activity and box-out work on the glass easily cleared the 5.5 line. The over cashed on volume and effort rather than scoring efficiency.

Jordin Canada Over 7.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +129 → close +129 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:255453 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.3% · unexplained · actual 7 · 34.7 min · startedCanada fell one assist short despite playing 35 minutes, hindered by a team-low 16% usage rate and five turnovers that limited her playmaking opportunities. Her role in the offense was diminished, resulting in just the seventh dime when the over needed eight.

Jordin Canada Over 6.5 ASTWIN +0.70ubet −143 → close −179 · CLV +5.3¢ · bet_clv:255452 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.0% · actual 7 · 34.7 min · startedCanada delivered exactly one assist above the line despite poor shooting (2-6 FG) by playing 35 minutes and leaning into playmaking—7 assists on 16% usage shows she prioritized getting teammates involved over scoring.

Rhyne Howard Under 16.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +100 → close +100 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:255458 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.6% · unexplained · actual 19 · 31.1 min · startedHoward exceeded the under on efficient three-point shooting, going 4-9 from deep (44%) to reach 19 points despite a mediocre 6-18 overall clip, and her 31 minutes of play gave her sufficient volume at a 25% usage rate to clear the 16.5-point threshold.

Shakira Austin Over 16.5 PTSWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −130 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:258184 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.8% · actual 21 · 27.0 min · startedAustin's 72% true shooting on 32% usage—powered by efficient 7-11 field-goal shooting and 6-8 free-throw conversion—easily cleared the 16.5-point line en route to 21 points in 27 minutes. Her ability to get to the stripe (6 FTA) and shoot above 60% from the field made the over a comfortable winner.

Lauren Betts Over 3.5 REBWIN +0.72ubet −139 · bet_clv:255456 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.6% · actual 11 · 21.1 min · started

Rhyne Howard Under 17.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −124 → close −119 · CLV −1.0¢ · bet_clv:255457 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · bad_price · actual 19 · 31.1 min · startedHoward exceeded the 17.5-point line by converting 4-of-9 from three (44%) while playing a full 31 minutes with elevated usage at 25%, offsetting her poor overall shooting (6-18 FG) with efficient perimeter stroke. The three-point volume and accuracy were the key variance—she needed just 19 points to cash the over, and her hot shooting from deep provided the margin.

Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTSWIN +1.03ubet +103 → close +107 · CLV −1.0¢ · bet_clv:255455 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.1% · actual 21 · 27.0 min · startedAustin's 7-11 shooting (64% FG) and perfect 6-8 free-throw night powered her past the 17.5 line, as she converted efficiently on 32% usage despite playing just 27 minutes.

Data fetches · 54

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 62 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 131 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 160 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 168 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 181 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 184 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 238 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 142 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 861 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 872 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 917 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 41 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 44 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 748 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 229 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 911 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 263 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 946 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 270 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 306 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 989 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 326 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 345 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 350 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 388 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 392 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1086 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 553 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 615 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 703 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 706 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 705 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 757 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 841 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 842 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.