WNBA · Finalupdated 00:17 UTC

Golden State Valkyries vs Dallas Wings

at Dallas Wings

DAL expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 160.5 points · odds to win: GSV 2.05, DAL 1.82

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 00:13 UTC

GSV 94 – DAL 76

Final · 0 of 4 picks won

4 picks checked: 0 won, 4 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSV = Golden State Valkyries, DAL = Dallas Wings.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

A. Ogunbowale · Over 14.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.83 · last price before start 1.75Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.83 · Our price was 2.7% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 1.75, 199 min ago

First offered at 1.88 by Pinnacle (Fri 05:49 UTC); latest 2.05 at Pinnacle (Sat 01:13 UTC). The line moved from 14.5 to 15.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

J. Salaun · Over 11.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.83 · last price before start 1.83Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

A. Smith · Under 5.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.79 · last price before start 1.86Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

J. Shepard · Over 11.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.73 · last price before start 1.73Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Valkyriesplaying DAL

Veronica Burton · 30 min expected

points 11.5 → 22 actual

Kayla Thornton · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 11 actual

Kiah Stokes · 24 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 7 actual

Janelle Salaun · 23 min expected

points 11.5 → 9 actual

Gabby Williams · 22 min expected

points 13.5 → 19 actual

Cecilia Zandalasini · 19 min expected

points 6.5 → 5 actual

Kaitlyn Chen · 10 min expected

points 6.5 → 2 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Hayes (22 expected minutes) · Charles (18 min) · Amihere (7 min)

Dallas Wingsplaying GSV

Jessica Shepard · 33 min expected

points 11.5 → 6 actual

Paige Bueckers · 33 min expected

points 19.5 → 17 actual

Arike Ogunbowale · 32 min expected

points 14.5 → 5 actual

Alanna Smith · 25 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 6 actual

Azzi Fudd · 32 min expected · Out · right knee

points 12.5 → did not play, so no result

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Sims (21 expected minutes) · Siegrist (20 min) · +6 more

What could go wrong

updated 00:17 UTC

Who is out

Clark · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 23:30 UTC) · 3, 19 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Fudd · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 00:00 UTC) · 35, 24 and 33 min in the last 3 games

Verona · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6 min in the last game

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 7, 5 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Prechtel · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 21:00 UTC) · 4, 5 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Jocyte · did not play last game

Sowah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 4, 4 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Fingall · did not play last game

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Williams, Hayes, Kuier, Sutton) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Chen: expected to play 10 minutes, averaged 22.1 in the last 5 games, about 12.1 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 119 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Clark out (Sat 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fudd out (Wed 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Verona out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out (Tue 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jocyte out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fingall out · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 4 picks won0 won, 4 lost · −4.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.1% higher than the last before the start · 12 lines checked, 8 scored but not picked · checked Mon 01:52 UTC

Arike Ogunbowale · points 14.5 → 5 · 9.5 below the line · played 26.7 min (32 expected)

Pick: Over 14.5 at 1.83 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Jessica Shepard · points 11.5 → 6 · 5.5 below the line · played 25.8 min (33 expected)

Pick: Over 11.5 at 1.73 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Janelle Salaun · points 11.5 → 9 · 2.5 below the line · played 16.6 min (23 expected)

Pick: Over 11.5 at 1.83 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market

Alanna Smith · rebounds 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.4 min (25 expected)

Pick: Under 5.5 at 1.79 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market

8 other players with a posted line

Veronica Burton · points 11.5 → 22 · 10.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.14, Under 1.71

Kaitlyn Chen · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 11.6 min (10 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.74

Gabby Williams · points 13.5 → 19 · 5.5 above the line · played 21.9 min (22 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.77

Kayla Thornton · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 27.4 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.78

Kiah Stokes · rebounds 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 26 min (24 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.94

Cecilia Zandalasini · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 17.5 min (19 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.68, Under 2.19

Paige Bueckers · points 19.5 → 17 · 2.5 below the line · played 28.9 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.79

Azzi Fudd · points 12.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 2.00

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs GSV · last 7 games · GSV leads · DAL record 1–6 · average score 77.6–84.9 · DAL has lost by 7.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

17 Aug · DAL 70 at GSV 78DAL lost

7 Aug · GSV 94 at DAL 76DAL lost

17 Jun · DAL 80 at GSV 91DAL lost

4 Sep · DAL 80 at GSV 84DAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.1 points · 32.7 rebounds · 18.2 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.4% of shots · 32.6% from three-point range · 13.7 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up85.3 points · 33.3 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.8% of shots · 33.1% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.1 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.9 vs average

DAL gives up 85.3 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0−1.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 1.5, expected total 163.5 (Fri 04:18 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 1.5, expected total 160.5 (Sat 00:13 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 5

Alanna Smith · U 5.5 rebounds−127value_edge_pct −2.74 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Arike Ogunbowale · O 14.5 points−120value_edge_pct −3.58 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Janelle Salaun · O 11.5 points−121value_edge_pct −3.60 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Jessica Shepard · O 11.5 points−137value_edge_pct −4.97 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 14

Arike Ogunbowale · O 15.5 points+110value_edge_pct −5.58 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 12

Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −167 → close −178 · CLV +1.5¢ · bet_clv:256394 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 26.7 min · startedOgunbowale's assist total collapsed due to severe offensive inefficiency—she shot just 20% from the field (2-10) with a 25% true shooting percentage, forcing the offense to stall around her and limiting playmaking opportunities despite 27 minutes of run.

Arike Ogunbowale Over 15.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +110 → close +109 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:256396 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 5 · 26.7 min · startedOgunbowale was ice-cold from the field, shooting just 2-10 (20%) despite playing 27 minutes, and couldn't generate her typical scoring volume with only 21% usage as the team controlled pace in a blowout. Her 5 points fell well short of the 15.5 line due to inefficiency and limited offensive opportunities.

Jessica Shepard Over 11.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −137 → close −137 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:256400 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.9% · unexplained · actual 6 · 25.8 min · started

Janelle Salaun Over 11.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −121 → close −120 · CLV −0.2¢ · bet_clv:256399 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.8% · bad_price · actual 9 · 16.6 min · benchSalaun struggled from the field, converting just 2 of 7 attempts (28.6%) while playing only 17 minutes, limiting her scoring opportunities well short of the 11.5-point threshold. Her low usage rate (27%) and modest volume of shot attempts undercut her scoring potential despite efficient free-throw shooting (4-4).

Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 REBWIN +0.60ubet −167 → close −180 · CLV +1.7¢ · bet_clv:256398 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.2% · actual 4 · 26.7 min · startedOgunbowale cleared the 2.5 rebound line with 4 boards despite a brutal 2-10 shooting night, as her 27 minutes of run time and active defensive presence—2 steals—kept her on the glass even when her offensive efficiency completely dried up at 25% TS%.

Azzi Fudd Over 1.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −175 → close −159 · CLV −2.2¢ · bet_clv:256403 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.1% · actual 0Azzi Fudd did not play (DNP), resulting in a void of the OVER 1.5 assists bet.

Alanna Smith Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −127 → close −116 · CLV −2.2¢ · bet_clv:256401 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.4% · bad_price · actual 6 · 27.4 min · startedSmith grabbed one more rebound than the line despite modest 27 minutes and 15% usage, as her 6 boards came from active positioning on the glass rather than volume; the under missed by just a single rebound in a game where she stayed out of foul trouble (1 PF).

Arike Ogunbowale Over 13.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −148 → close −130 · CLV −3.2¢ · bet_clv:256397 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.1% · bad_price · actual 5 · 26.7 min · startedOgunbowale's shot completely deserted her, going just 2-10 from the field (20%) with a 25% true shooting percentage despite playing 27 minutes, leaving her well short at 5 points. The combination of poor scoring efficiency and relatively low usage (21%) made it impossible to reach the 13.5-point threshold.

Arike Ogunbowale Over 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −120 → close −134 · CLV +2.7¢ · bet_clv:256395 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 5 · 26.7 min · startedOgunbowale's 5 points fell well short of the 14.5 line due to historically poor shooting efficiency—she went 2-10 from the field (20%) and 1-6 from three while managing just 21% true shooting despite 27 minutes and 21% usage. The combination of ice-cold shooting and low-volume output from her typical scoring role made the over an easy miss.

Jessica Shepard Over 4.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −180 → close −180 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:259124 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.8% · unexplained · actual 1 · 25.8 min · startedShepard's assist total cratered despite 26 minutes played, finishing with just 1 dime as her 17% usage rate left her out of the offense's playmaking flow. Her poor shooting (2-7 FG, 34% TS%) likely forced the ball away from her and limited her ability to facilitate in the low post.

Azzi Fudd Under 2.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −192 · bet_clv:256404 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.7% · actual 0Fudd did not play (DNP), so the bet voided per standard sportsbook rules rather than hitting the under.

Kiah Stokes Under 5.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −169 · bet_clv:256402 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.0% · unexplained · actual 7 · 26.0 min · startedStokes exceeded the Under on efficient shooting, going 3-4 from the field (75% FG) in 26 minutes despite her typically low usage rate of 7%, and her two three-pointers proved decisive in a blowout where she finished +21.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 82 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 166 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 195 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 199 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 204 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 221 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 298 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 130 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 480 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 846 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 893 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 626 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 930 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 194 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 897 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 291 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 294 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 931 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 318 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 331 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 338 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 338 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 340 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 343 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 356 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 364 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 366 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 499 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 504 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 537 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 772 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 997 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 999 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1000 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1002 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.