Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings

FinalGSV 94 – DAL 76Page updated 00:58 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

4 players have a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Williams, Hayes, Kuier, Sutton have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 11 of 21 estimates.

Stokes: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 29.5 in the last 5 games, about 5.5 fewer than usual

Thornton: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 13.6 in the last 5 games, about 11.4 more than usual

Salaun: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 6.6 in the last 5 games, about 16.4 more than usual

Chen: expected to play only 10 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes23 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Golden State Valkyries

Veronica Burton · 30 min expected

points 11.5 → 22 actual

Kayla Thornton · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 11 actual

Kiah Stokes · 24 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 7 actual

Janelle Salaun · 23 min expected

points 11.5 → 9 actual

Gabby Williams · 22 min expected

points 13.5 → 19 actual

Cecilia Zandalasini · 19 min expected

points 6.5 → 5 actual

Kaitlyn Chen · 10 min expected

points 6.5 → 2 actual

3 more players · no line in this feed

Tiffany Hayes22 min · source estimate

Kaila Charles18 min · source estimate

Laeticia Amihere7 min · source estimate

Dallas Wings

Jessica Shepard · 33 min expected

points 13.5 → 6 actual

Paige Bueckers · 33 min expected

points 19.5 → 17 actual

Arike Ogunbowale · 32 min expected

points 14.5 → 5 actual

Alanna Smith · 25 min expected

points 7.5 → 11 actual

Azzi Fudd · 32 min expected · Out · right knee

points 12.5 → did not play, so no result

8 more players · no line in this feed

Odyssey Sims21 min · source estimate

Maddy Siegrist20 min · source estimate

Aziaha James14 min · source estimate

Li Yueru9 min · source estimate

Alysha ClarkOut · Back

Awak Kuier5 min · source estimate

Sug Sutton5 min · source estimate

Haley Jones3 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

DAL expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 160.5 points · odds to win: GSV 2.05, DAL 1.82

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 00:13 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 00:58 UTC

Who is out

Clark · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 23:30 UTC) · 25, 31 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Fudd · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 00:00 UTC) · 35, 24 and 33 min in the last 3 games

Verona · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6 min in the last game

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6, 7 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Prechtel · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 21:00 UTC) · 4, 5 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Jocyte · did not play last game

Sowah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 4, 4 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Fingall · did not play last game

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

Stokes: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 29.5 in the last 5 games, about 5.5 fewer than usual

Thornton: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 13.6 in the last 5 games, about 11.4 more than usual

Salaun: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 6.6 in the last 5 games, about 16.4 more than usual

Chen: expected to play only 10 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

GSV had 11 days off before this game · DAL had 40 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 119 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Clark out (Sat 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fudd out (Wed 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Verona out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out (Tue 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jocyte out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fingall out · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Mon 01:52 UTC

12 other players with a posted line

Veronica Burton · points 11.5 → 22 · 10.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (30 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Kaitlyn Chen · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 11.6 min (10 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Arike Ogunbowale · points 14.5 → 5 · 9.5 below the line · played 26.7 min (32 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.09, Under 1.75

Jessica Shepard · points 13.5 → 6 · 7.5 below the line · played 25.8 min (33 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Alanna Smith · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 27.4 min (25 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Gabby Williams · points 13.5 → 19 · 5.5 above the line · played 21.9 min (22 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.77

Kayla Thornton · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 27.4 min (25 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Kiah Stokes · rebounds 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 26 min (24 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Cecilia Zandalasini · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 17.5 min (19 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Janelle Salaun · points 11.5 → 9 · 2.5 below the line · played 16.6 min (23 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Paige Bueckers · points 19.5 → 17 · 2.5 below the line · played 28.9 min (33 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Azzi Fudd · points 12.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

DAL vs GSV · last 10 games · GSV leads · DAL record 2–8 · average score 80.4–87.5 · DAL has lost by 7.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

2 Oct · DAL 73 at GSV 77DAL lost

30 Sep · GSV 100 at DAL 108DAL won

27 Sep · DAL 80 at GSV 104DAL lost

17 Aug · DAL 70 at GSV 78DAL lost

7 Aug · GSV 94 at DAL 76DAL lost

17 Jun · DAL 80 at GSV 91DAL lost

4 Sep · DAL 80 at GSV 84DAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.3 points · 32.8 rebounds · 17.8 assists · 7.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.0% of shots · 32.4% from three-point range · 13.3 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.3 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.7 vs average

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 1.5, expected total 163.5 (Fri 04:18 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 1.5, expected total 160.5 (Sat 00:13 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 22 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 36 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 101 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 133 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 141 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 340 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 349 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 87 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 758 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 67 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 71 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 89 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 240 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 242 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 244 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 246 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 245 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 251 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 276 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 280 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 287 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 290 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 380 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1150 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 881 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 931 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.