02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

N. Mack · Under 8.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.93 · last price before start 1.74Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.93 · Our price was 5.8% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 1.74, 19 min ago

First offered at 1.91 by Pinnacle (); latest 1.74 at Pinnacle (). The line moved from 7.5 to 8.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.35 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

K. Copper · Under 3.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.88 · last price before start 1.79Lost −1.00 per 1 staked
N. Mack · Under 6.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.84 · last price before start 1.82Won +0.84 per 1 staked
D. Hamby · Over 13.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.83 · last price before start 1.75Won +0.83 per 1 staked
E. Wheeler · Over 8.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.77 · last price before start 1.70Lost −1.00 per 1 staked
D. Bonner · Over 10.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.74 · last price before start 1.76Won +0.74 per 1 staked
N. Ogwumike · Over 7.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.72 · last price before start 1.67Won +0.72 per 1 staked

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Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

03

The players

11 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Phoenix Mercuryplaying LAS

SAlyssa Thomas · 35 min expected
points 15.5 → 16 actual
SKahleah Copper · 35 min expected
rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual
SDeWanna Bonner · 30 min expected
points 11.5 → 11 actual
SNoemie Brochant · 23 min expected
points 5.5 → 24 actual
Natasha Mack · 20 min expected
points 8.5 → 9 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Whitcomb (17 expected minutes) · Ayayi (17 min) · +3 more

Los Angeles Sparksplaying PHO

SRae Burrell · 31 min expected
points 14.5 → 19 actual
SAriel Atkins · 30 min expected
points 9.5 → 5 actual
SNneka Ogwumike · 30 min expected
rebounds 7.5 → 9 actual
SDearica Hamby · 28 min expected
points 13.5 → 19 actual
SErica Wheeler · 27 min expected
points 8.5 → 7 actual
Cameron Brink · 21 min expected
points 8.5 → 7 actual
Monique Akoa Makani · Out · right ankle
points 7.5 → did not play, so no result

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Gray (12 expected minutes) · Williams (10 min) · +3 more

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Pili · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 16, 6 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Cannon · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed ) · 13, 13 and 12 min in the last 3 games

Martin · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 9, 17 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Makani · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed ) · 18, 23 and 18 min in the last 3 games

Dunn · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed ) · 17, 11 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Out Plum · earlier listed as may not play (changed ) · 17, 14 and 28 min in the last 3 games

Linskens · did not play last game

Ciezki · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 19, 15 and 21 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Whitcomb, Ayayi, Ogwumike, Atkins) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Thomas: expected to play 35 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 6.7 more than usual

Bonner: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 20.8 in the last 5 games, about 9.2 more than usual

Brochant: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 28.5 in the last 5 games, about 5.5 fewer than usual

Wheeler: expected to play 27 minutes, averaged 17.9 in the last 5 games, about 9.1 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 27 of the 153 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Pili out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Cannon out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Martin out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Makani out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Dunn out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Plum out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Linskens out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Ciezki out () · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.
Final · 4 of 7 picks won4 won, 3 lost · +0.13 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 2.1% higher than the last before the start · 13 lines checked, 6 scored but not picked · checked
Dearica Hamby · points 13.5 → 19 · 5.5 above the line · played 31.5 min (28 expected)
Pick: Over 13.5 at 1.83 → Won +0.83 per 1 staked
Nneka Ogwumike · rebounds 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.5 min (30 expected)
Pick: Over 7.5 at 1.72 → Won +0.72 per 1 staked
Erica Wheeler · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.9 min (27 expected)
Pick: Over 8.5 at 1.77 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall
Kahleah Copper · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 35.1 min (35 expected)
Pick: Under 3.5 at 1.88 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall
Natasha Mack · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 13 min (20 expected)
Pick: Under 8.5 at 1.93 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall
7 other players with a posted line
Noemie Brochant · points 5.5 → 24 · 18.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (23 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.75
Ariel Atkins · points 9.5 → 5 · 4.5 below the line · played 31.9 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.02
Rae Burrell · points 14.5 → 19 · 4.5 above the line · played 34.9 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.80
Cameron Brink · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 16 min (21 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87
DeWanna Bonner · points 11.5 → 11 · 0.5 below the line · played 27 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.87
Alyssa Thomas · points 15.5 → 16 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.1 min (35 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.80
Monique Akoa Makani · points 7.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71

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Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

LAS vs PHO · last 20 games · PHO leads · LAS record 8–12 · average score 85.4–85.6 · LAS has lost by 0.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

11 Aug · PHO 94 at LAS 87LAS lost
22 Jul · PHO 86 at LAS 82LAS lost
13 Jun · LAS 111 at PHO 102LAS won
21 May · LAS 97 at PHO 88LAS won
9 Sep · LAS 88 at PHO 83LAS won
What each defense gives up per game
PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers
LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average
LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.3 vs average
How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LAS expected to win by 2, expected total 179.5 () and later LAS expected to win by 1, expected total 179 ().

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 9
Natasha Mack · U 8.5 points−107value_edge_pct +1.31 · kelly 0.35u · price_check unchecked · rank 2
Kahleah Copper · U 3.5 rebounds−114value_edge_pct −0.51 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3
Dearica Hamby · O 13.5 points−120value_edge_pct −1.87 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5
Erica Wheeler · O 8.5 points−130value_edge_pct −2.86 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9
Nneka Ogwumike · O 7.5 rebounds−139value_edge_pct −3.16 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10
Erica Wheeler · O 9.5 points−102value_edge_pct −4.04 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12
Natasha Mack · U 6.5 rebounds−119value_edge_pct −4.39 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 16
DeWanna Bonner · O 10.5 points−136value_edge_pct −4.56 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17
Erica Wheeler · O 10.5 points+115value_edge_pct −5.69 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 21
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 13
Cameron Brink Under 6.5 REBWIN +0.66ubet −151 → close −149 · CLV −0.3¢ · bet_clv:294344 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.9% · actual 5 · 16.0 min · benchBrink's limited 16 minutes—likely due to early foul trouble (3 PF)—kept her well short of the 6.5 rebound mark despite solid per-minute activity. The low playing time capped her opportunity at just 5 boards, well under the line.
Nneka Ogwumike Over 14.5 PTSWIN +0.67ubet −150 → close −190 · CLV +5.5¢ · bet_clv:291646 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.4% · actual 18 · 32.5 min · startedOgwumike's efficient 6-14 shooting (57% TS) and perfect 4-4 free-throw night carried her to 18 points, clearing the 14.5 line despite modest 24% usage—her solid shot-making and 32 minutes of court time were enough to overcome a blowout loss.
DeWanna Bonner Over 10.5 PTSWIN +0.74ubet −136 → close −132 · CLV −0.7¢ · bet_clv:291645 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 55.0% · actual 11 · 27.0 min · startedBonner's efficient 72% true shooting—highlighted by a perfect 5-for-6 from the free-throw line—pushed her just over the 10.5 threshold despite modest 2-for-5 field goal shooting in 27 minutes. Her defensive activity (3 steals, 3 blocks) kept her on the floor and in rhythm, enabling the narrow cover.
Kahleah Copper Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −114 → close −126 · CLV +2.5¢ · bet_clv:291641 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 4 · 35.1 min · startedCopper grabbed one rebound above the line despite modest efficiency (7-16 FG), staying on the floor for 35 minutes and maintaining high usage (30%) that kept her in position for glass opportunities. The under missed by just one board—a thin margin that her extended playing time and volume made vulnerable.
Erica Wheeler Over 4.5 ASTWIN +0.65ubet −153 → close −160 · CLV +1.1¢ · bet_clv:291648 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.2% · actual 5 · 29.9 min · startedWheeler stayed on the floor for 30 minutes and distributed 5 assists despite a rough shooting night (3-11 FG), leaning on her playmaking role to stay involved in the offense. The over hit because she prioritized ball movement over scoring, recording exactly one assist above the line in her heavy minutes.
Natasha Mack Under 6.5 REBWIN +0.84ubet −119 → close −122 · CLV +0.6¢ · bet_clv:291644 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 52.0% · actual 4 · 13.0 min · benchMack's limited 13 minutes—likely due to foul trouble (2 PF) and the team's blowout loss—prevented her from accumulating boards despite efficient shooting; she needed extended run to threaten the 6.5 line.
Natasha Mack Under 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −107 → close −135 · CLV +5.8¢ · bet_clv:291643 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 9 · 13.0 min · benchMack's perfect 4-for-4 shooting from the field, including a 1-for-1 from the line, powered her to 9 points in just 13 minutes, enough to narrowly clear the 8.5-point line despite limited usage. Her elite efficiency (101% TS) made up for the modest playing time and low volume.
Dearica Hamby Over 13.5 PTSWIN +0.83ubet −120 → close −133 · CLV +2.5¢ · bet_clv:291642 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.5% · actual 19 · 31.5 min · startedHamby's perfect 8-8 shooting from the field—all two-pointers—combined with efficient free-throw work (3-5) gave her 19 points in 32 minutes, easily clearing the 13.5 line despite modest usage of 18%. Her elite true shooting percentage (93%) and volume from inside the arc masked relatively quiet counting stats elsewhere on the box.
Ariel Atkins Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −167 → close −174 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:291640 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 31.9 min · startedAtkins fell one assist short despite playing heavy minutes (32), held back by poor offensive efficiency (2-7 FG, 10% usage) that limited her ability to generate ball movement and create plays for teammates. Her five personal fouls also may have constrained her aggressiveness on both ends.
Erica Wheeler Over 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −130 → close −143 · CLV +2.3¢ · bet_clv:291650 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 7 · 29.9 min · startedWheeler played 30 minutes but shot just 3-11 from the field (27%) with a brutal 1-7 from three, posting only 7 points on 19% usage—well short of the 8.5-point line. Her inefficient shooting night, particularly the cold three-point stroke, made it impossible to reach the over despite meaningful playing time.
Erica Wheeler Over 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −102 → close −110 · CLV +1.9¢ · bet_clv:291649 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 7 · 29.9 min · startedWheeler's poor 3-11 shooting (27%) and inability to get to the free-throw line (0-0 FT) left her two points short despite playing a full 30 minutes with steady usage. Her inefficient 32% true shooting capped her scoring well below the 9.5-point line.
Nneka Ogwumike Over 7.5 REBWIN +0.72ubet −139 → close −150 · CLV +1.8¢ · bet_clv:291647 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.3% · actual 9 · 32.5 min · startedOgwumike secured 9 rebounds in 32 minutes of heavy usage (24%), staying out of foul trouble with just 2 PF to maintain floor time and board opportunities throughout the game.
Erica Wheeler Over 10.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +115 → close −114 · CLV +6.8¢ · bet_clv:294349 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 7 · 29.9 min · startedWheeler's poor shooting efficiency—just 3-11 FG (27%) and 1-7 from three—combined with modest usage at 19% to leave her well short, finishing with only 7 points despite playing 30 minutes. Her 32% true shooting was significantly below her typical output, indicating an off night rather than reduced playing time.
Data fetches · 55
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 22 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 27 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 29 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 30 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 40 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 41 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 42 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 44 ms
sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 125 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 150 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 163 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 167 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 215 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 346 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 596 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 599 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 627 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 649 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 683 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 706 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 772 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 961 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 3488 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 28 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 43 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 44 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 46 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 47 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 47 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 60 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 70 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 72 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 75 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 74 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 76 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 122 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 134 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 136 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 150 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 155 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 168 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 169 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 171 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 193 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 198 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 208 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 500 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 530 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 547 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 574 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 577 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 653 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.