Picks and prices
Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checkedA line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.
N. Mack · Under 8.5 pointsLost▸Posted at 1.93 · last price before start 1.74Lost −1.00 per 1 staked
Posted at 1.93 · Our price was 5.8% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).
Pinnacle 1.74, 19 min ago
First offered at 1.91 by Pinnacle (); latest 1.74 at Pinnacle (). The line moved from 7.5 to 8.5.
Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked
In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.35 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.
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In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.
In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.
The players
11 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few gamesRate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.
Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.
Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.
Phoenix Mercuryplaying LAS
5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Whitcomb (17 expected minutes) · Ayayi (17 min) · +3 more
Los Angeles Sparksplaying PHO
5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Gray (12 expected minutes) · Williams (10 min) · +3 more
What could go wrong
updatedPili · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 16, 6 and 2 min in the last 3 games
Cannon · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed ) · 13, 13 and 12 min in the last 3 games
Martin · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 9, 17 and 5 min in the last 3 games
Makani · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed ) · 18, 23 and 18 min in the last 3 games
Dunn · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed ) · 17, 11 and 13 min in the last 3 games
Out Plum · earlier listed as may not play (changed ) · 17, 14 and 28 min in the last 3 games
Linskens · did not play last game
Ciezki · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 19, 15 and 21 min in the last 3 games
Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed
4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Whitcomb, Ayayi, Ogwumike, Atkins) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.
Thomas: expected to play 35 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 6.7 more than usual
Bonner: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 20.8 in the last 5 games, about 9.2 more than usual
Brochant: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 28.5 in the last 5 games, about 5.5 fewer than usual
Wheeler: expected to play 27 minutes, averaged 17.9 in the last 5 games, about 9.1 more than usual
Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.
Both teams also played the day before this game.
The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 27 of the 153 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.
Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.
Flagged before the game: Pili out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Cannon out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Martin out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Makani out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Dunn out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Plum out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Linskens out · did not play
Flagged before the game: Ciezki out () · did not play
2 expected players did not play
When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.
What happened
In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.▸7 other players with a posted line
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Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.
▸More context
LAS vs PHO · last 20 games · PHO leads · LAS record 8–12 · average score 85.4–85.6 · LAS has lost by 0.2 on average
Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.
Pinnacle first had LAS expected to win by 2, expected total 179.5 () and later LAS expected to win by 1, expected total 179 ().
▸Data log (technical)
▸Classic view →
The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.