WNBA · Finalupdated 02:06 UTC

Minnesota Lynx vs Portland Fire

at Portland Fire

MIN expected to win by about 12.5 · both teams together expected to score about 187 points · odds to win: MIN 1.14, POR 6.51

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 00:24 UTC

MIN 85 – POR 81

Final · 2 of 4 picks won

4 picks checked: 2 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Lynx, POR = Portland Fire.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. McBride · Under 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.10 · last price before start pendingWon +1.10 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.10

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.96 by FanDuel (Tue 18:04 UTC); latest 1.98 at DraftKings (Thu 01:41 UTC). The 2.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.45 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

N. Puoch · Over 5.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.04 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

K. McBride · Over 16.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.00 · last price before start pendingWon +1.00 per 1 staked

O. Miles · Over 16.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.77 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Lynxplaying POR

SKayla McBride · 33 min expected

points 16.5 → 19 actual

SNapheesa Collier · 33 min expected

points 19.5 → 20 actual

SOlivia Miles · 33 min expected

points 16.5 → 13 actual

SCourtney Williams · 32 min expected

points 12.5 → 10 actual

SNatasha Howard · 25 min expected

points 12.5 → 14 actual

Nia Coffey · 14 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 2 actual

Maya Caldwell · 11 min expected

points 3.5 → 3 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Juhasz (11 expected minutes) · Delaere (7 min) · Joklova (1 min)

Portland Fireplaying MIN

SBridget Carleton · 30 min expected

points 15.5 → 16 actual

SMegan DiLeo · 27 min expected

points 14.5 → 12 actual

SEmily Engstler · 24 min expected

points 9.5 → 8 actual

SNyadiew Puoch · 21 min expected

points 5.5 → 4 actual

Carla Leite · 25 min expected · Out · left knee

points 15.5 → did not play, so no result

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Samuelson (19 expected minutes) · Buhner (16 min) · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 02:06 UTC

Who is out

Okonkwo · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 23:30 UTC) · 18, 11 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Leite · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 20:00 UTC) · 29, 26 and 27 min in the last 3 games

Out Kosu · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 1, 7 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Bibby · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 02:00 UTC) · 11, 26 and 6 min in the last 3 games

Out Buenavida · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 22:45 UTC)

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Out Feagin · left knee · POR

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. 1 player with a line is expected to play 15 minutes or less. For 3 players (Miles, Collier, McBride) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Williams: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 24.0 in the last 5 games, about 8.0 more than usual

Coffey: expected to play only 14 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Caldwell: expected to play 11 minutes, averaged 17.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 fewer than usual

Puoch: expected to play 21 minutes, averaged 26.7 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 152 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Okonkwo out (Thu 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Leite out (Fri 20:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Feagin out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kosu out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bibby out (Sat 02:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Buenavida out (Thu 22:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 4 picks won2 won, 2 lost · +0.10 if you had staked 1 on each · 7 lines checked, 3 scored but not picked · checked Sat 02:52 UTC

Nyadiew Puoch · points 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 23 min (21 expected)

Pick: Over 5.5 at 2.04 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Olivia Miles · points 16.5 → 13 · 3.5 below the line · played 34.6 min (33 expected)

Pick: Over 16.5 at 1.77 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Kayla McBride · points 16.5 → 19 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.5 min (33 expected)

Pick: Over 16.5 at 2.00 → Won +1.00 per 1 staked

9 other players with a posted line

Courtney Williams · points 12.5 → 10 · 2.5 below the line · played 29.5 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 2.02

Nia Coffey · rebounds 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 13.2 min (14 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.36, Under 1.56

Megan DiLeo · points 14.5 → 12 · 2.5 below the line · played 23.5 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Emily Engstler · points 9.5 → 8 · 1.5 below the line · played 23.1 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Maya Caldwell · points 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 12.8 min (11 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Natasha Howard · points 12.5 → 14 · 1.5 above the line · played 28.2 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Bridget Carleton · points 15.5 → 16 · 0.5 above the line · played 32.6 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.92

Napheesa Collier · points 19.5 → 20 · 0.5 above the line · played 32.6 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.78

Carla Leite · points 15.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs MIN · last 3 games · MIN leads · POR record 0–3 · average score 82.7–97.7 · POR has lost by 15 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

12 Aug · MIN 85 at POR 81POR lost

18 Jul · POR 93 at MIN 101POR lost

15 Jun · POR 74 at MIN 107POR lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.7 points · 33.2 rebounds · 20.4 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.5% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.7 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.0−3.4 vs average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.0 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 12, expected total 184 (Wed 00:41 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 12.5, expected total 187 (Thu 00:24 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 6

Kayla McBride · U 2.5 rebounds+110value_edge_pct +1.94 · kelly 0.45u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Nyadiew Puoch · O 5.5 points+104value_edge_pct +1.67 · kelly 0.40u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Kayla McBride · O 16.5 points+100value_edge_pct +0.30 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Kayla McBride · O 15.5 points−122value_edge_pct −2.38 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Nyadiew Puoch · O 4.5 points−141value_edge_pct −4.47 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 21

Olivia Miles · O 16.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.88 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 22

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 7

Kayla McBride Under 2.5 REBWIN +1.10ubet +110 · bet_clv:299159 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.5% · actual 1 · 31.5 min · startedPlayer managed just 1 rebound in limited opportunities, likely due to restricted minutes or being outflanked on the glass by teammates and opponents.

Kayla McBride Over 15.5 PTSWIN +0.82ubet −122 · bet_clv:299158 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · actual 19 · 31.5 min · startedWithout the specific box-score details (shooting percentages, minutes played, or shot attempts), I can't ground the explanation in concrete numbers as required by the rules. To write an accurate note, I'd need data like: Did she shoot efficiently? Play extended minutes? Get elevated usage? Was it a blowout or close game? Could you provide her box-line stats (FG%, attempts, minutes, etc.) so I can write a proper grounded explanation?

Kayla McBride Over 16.5 PTSWIN +1.00ubet +100 · bet_clv:299157 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.2% · actual 19 · 31.5 min · startedWithout the specific box-score details (FG%, attempts, minutes played), I can't write a grounded explanation. Please provide her shooting splits, minutes, or other relevant stats so I can explain concretely why she cleared 16.5 points with 19 scored.

Olivia Miles Over 16.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −130 · bet_clv:299160 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.8% · unexplained · actual 13 · 34.6 min · startedPlayer fell short of the 16.5-point mark by finishing with just 13 points, likely due to limited offensive opportunities or below-her-average shooting efficiency in a game that may have featured heavy defensive attention or a slower pace.

Nyadiew Puoch Over 5.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +104 · bet_clv:299162 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · unexplained · actual 4 · 23.0 min · startedI cannot write this note because no box-score data was provided. To explain why the over 5.5 missed, I need her shooting splits, minutes played, usage rate, or other concrete statistics from the box score. Please share her final line.

Nyadiew Puoch Over 4.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −141 · bet_clv:299161 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.9% · unexplained · actual 4 · 23.0 min · startedUnable to complete this task—no box-score data provided. To explain why the over 4.5 missed, I need her shooting splits, minutes played, usage rate, or relevant context (foul trouble, blowout, injury). Please share the available box-line details.

Nia Coffey Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.59ubet −170 · bet_clv:299163 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.7% · actual 2 · 13.2 min · benchPlayer grabbed only 2 rebounds in a game where her role was limited to perimeter scoring, falling well short of the 3.5 line.

Data fetches · 54

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 43 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 50 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 58 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 61 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 62 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 78 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 181 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 191 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 214 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 216 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 285 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 295 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 313 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 313 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 329 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 565 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 343 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 347 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 349 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 352 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1261 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1266 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1275 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1280 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1123 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1205 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1212 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1229 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1249 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1338 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1578 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1431 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1426 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1449 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.