WNBA · Finalupdated 07:35 UTC

Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun

at Connecticut Sun

ATL expected to win by about 10.5 · both teams together expected to score about 172 points · odds to win: ATL 1.19, CON 5.01

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 21:44 UTC

ATL 104 – CON 69

Final · 1 of 3 picks won

3 picks checked: 1 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ATL = Atlanta Dream, CON = Connecticut Sun.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

D. Miller · Over 9.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.00 · last price before start 1.91Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.00 · Our price was 2.4% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 1.83, 16 min ago

First offered at 1.80 by Pinnacle (Thu 05:34 UTC); latest 1.91 at Pinnacle (Thu 22:48 UTC). The 9.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.75 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

R. Howard · Under 17.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.82 · last price before start 1.68Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

N. Hillmon · Over 7.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.80 · last price before start 1.78Won +0.80 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Atlanta Dreamplaying CON

SAllisha Gray · 33 min expected

points 18.5 → 29 actual

SJordin Canada · 33 min expected

points 11.5 → 9 actual

SRhyne Howard · 33 min expected

points 17.5 → 29 actual

SAngel Reese · 32 min expected

points 16.5 → 8 actual

SNaz Hillmon · 27 min expected

points 7.5 → 8 actual

Brionna Jones · 20 min expected

points 10.5 → 0 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Borlase (11 expected minutes) · Sherrod (5 min) · +3 more

Connecticut Sunplaying ATL

SLeila Lacan · 29 min expected

points 11.5 → 6 actual

SDiamond Miller · 24 min expected

points 9.5 → 1 actual

SOlivia Nelson-Ododa · 22 min expected

points 11.5 → 3 actual

SBrittney Griner · 20 min expected

points 12.5 → 7 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Edwards (24 expected minutes) · Leger-Walker (22 min) · +5 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:35 UTC

Who is out

Jackson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 26, 15 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Paopao · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sun 20:30 UTC) · 13, 7 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

For 5 players (Howard, Canada, Gray, Griner, Burke) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 14 of the 117 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jackson out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Paopao out (Sun 20:30 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 3 picks won1 won, 2 lost · −1.20 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 2.6% higher than the last before the start · 7 lines checked, 4 scored but not picked · checked Sat 23:52 UTC

Diamond Miller · points 9.5 → 1 · 8.5 below the line · played 10.2 min (24 expected)

Pick: Over 9.5 at 2.00 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Rhyne Howard · points 17.5 → 29 · 11.5 above the line · played 29.4 min (33 expected)

Pick: Under 17.5 at 1.82 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Naz Hillmon · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.2 min (27 expected)

Pick: Over 7.5 at 1.80 → Won +0.80 per 1 staked

7 other players with a posted line

Brionna Jones · points 10.5 → 0 · 10.5 below the line · played 4.7 min (20 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.75

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 11.5 → 3 · 8.5 below the line · played 16.6 min (22 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.83

Allisha Gray · points 18.5 → 29 · 10.5 above the line · played 27.8 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.89

Angel Reese · points 16.5 → 8 · 8.5 below the line · played 28.3 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Leila Lacan · points 11.5 → 6 · 5.5 below the line · played 20.2 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.87

Brittney Griner · points 12.5 → 7 · 5.5 below the line · played 18.9 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Jordin Canada · points 11.5 → 9 · 2.5 below the line · played 26.6 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CON vs ATL · last 19 games · ATL leads · CON record 9–10 · average score 76.8–80.9 · CON has lost by 4.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

17 Sep · CON 59 at ATL 103CON lost

13 Aug · ATL 104 at CON 69CON lost

2 Jun · CON 75 at ATL 91CON lost

10 Sep · ATL 88 at CON 72CON lost

8 Sep · CON 62 at ATL 87CON lost

1 Sep · ATL 93 at CON 76CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up84.5 points · 31.0 rebounds · 19.2 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.9% of shots · 34.8% from three-point range · 15.4 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 84.5 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−2.6 vs average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 10, expected total 175.5 (Thu 01:01 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 10.5, expected total 172 (Thu 21:44 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 3

Diamond Miller · O 9.5 points+100value_edge_pct +2.91 · kelly 0.75u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Naz Hillmon · O 7.5 points−125value_edge_pct −3.81 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Rhyne Howard · U 17.5 points−122value_edge_pct −4.17 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 7

Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.61ubet −164 → close −186 · CLV +2.9¢ · bet_clv:305319 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.6% · actual 0 · 16.6 min · benchNelson-Ododa's limited 17 minutes and minimal 16% usage rate left little opportunity for playmaking, and she failed to record a single assist while shooting just 1-for-5 from the field in a low-efficiency outing.

Diamond Miller Over 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +100 → close −110 · CLV +2.4¢ · bet_clv:300281 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 10.2 min · benchMiller fouled out early (4 PF in just 10 minutes), severely limiting her opportunity to score, and shot just 0-3 from the field while on the court. Combined with minimal usage (17%), she had virtually no chance to reach 9.5 points.

Naz Hillmon Over 7.5 PTSWIN +0.80ubet −125 → close −128 · CLV +0.6¢ · bet_clv:300280 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.4% · actual 8 · 24.2 min · startedHillmon narrowly cleared the over on 24 minutes and modest volume (12% usage), converting 50% of her field-goal attempts with efficient three-point shooting (2-4) to reach 8 points. Despite limited touches and a scoreless night at the free-throw line, her above-average efficiency was enough to push her just over the 7.5-point threshold.

Rhyne Howard Under 17.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −122 → close −148 · CLV +4.7¢ · bet_clv:300279 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 29 · 29.4 min · startedHoward erupted from three-point range (5-8) and was nearly perfect from the free-throw line (10-11), posting a 98% true shooting percentage to nearly double the 17.5-point line despite modest 22% usage. The efficiency was the story—she needed just 29 minutes to reach 29 points on elite shot-making.

Jordin Canada Over 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −169 → close −181 · CLV +1.6¢ · bet_clv:300278 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 26.6 min · startedCanada logged 27 minutes with modest 19% usage, and despite solid court time, grabbed just 2 rebounds—one short of the over—as a primary ball-handler (4 ast) rather than a rebounder in a blowout win (+39). Her perimeter role and lighter usage rate limited rebounding opportunities.

Leila Lacan Over 3.5 ASTWIN +0.60ubet −166 → close −166 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:300283 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.0% · actual 4 · 20.2 min · startedLacan hit the over with 4 assists in 20 minutes, benefiting from efficient ball movement in a role that emphasized playmaking over scoring (15% usage, 100% TS%). Her 4 assists came despite the team's lopsided deficit (-22 +/-), as she remained a reliable facilitator despite limited overall opportunities.

Diamond Miller Over 1.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −159 → close −159 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:300282 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.8% · unexplained · actual 1 · 10.2 min · benchMiller played just 10 minutes and picked up 4 fouls, severely limiting her ability to crash the boards and accumulate rebounds. She finished with only 1 rebound despite needing just 2 to cash the over, unable to impact the glass in her limited opportunity.

Data fetches · 47

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 92 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 133 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 297 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 308 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 329 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 354 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 377 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 382 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 143 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 814 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 854 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 324 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 327 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 347 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 350 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 354 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 837 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 839 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 854 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 387 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 390 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 393 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 395 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 402 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 405 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 410 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 412 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 456 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 469 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 473 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 507 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1538 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 719 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 723 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 746 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 789 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 859 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 908 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1047 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.