WNBA · Finalupdated 01:33 UTC

Los Angeles Sparks vs New York Liberty

at New York Liberty

NYL expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 186 points · odds to win: LAS 3.86, NYL 1.28

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 22:48 UTC

LAS 81 – NYL 85

Final · 3 of 5 picks won

5 picks checked: 3 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LAS = Los Angeles Sparks, NYL = New York Liberty.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

R. Burrell · Over 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.98 · last price before start 1.98Won +0.98 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.98 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.12 by BetOnline.ag (Wed 16:39 UTC); latest 1.80 at BetOnline.ag (Thu 23:50 UTC). The 2.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.70 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

E. Wheeler · Over 9.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.91 · last price before start 1.75Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

D. Hamby · Over 13.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.82 · last price before start 1.72Won +0.82 per 1 staked

A. Atkins · Over 2.5 assistsLostPosted at 1.74 · last price before start 1.63Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

J. Jones · Over 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.71 · last price before start 1.60Won +0.71 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Los Angeles Sparksplaying NYL

SAriel Atkins · 31 min expected

assists 2.5 → 2 actual

SNneka Ogwumike · 31 min expected

points 16.5 → 10 actual

SRae Burrell · 31 min expected

assists 2.5 → 3 actual

SDearica Hamby · 29 min expected

points 13.5 → 16 actual

SErica Wheeler · 28 min expected

points 9.5 → 6 actual

Cameron Brink · 20 min expected

points 9.5 → 9 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Gray (10 expected minutes) · Park (8 min) · +2 more

New York Libertyplaying LAS

SBreanna Stewart · 31 min expected

points 22.5 → 11 actual

SJonquel Jones · 29 min expected

assists 2.5 → 4 actual

SSabrina Ionescu · 29 min expected

points 18.5 → 20 actual

SRebecca Allen · 24 min expected

points 6.5 → 13 actual

SPauline Astier · 20 min expected

points 7.5 → 7 actual

Marine Johannes · 16 min expected

points 6.5 → 10 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Xu (17 expected minutes) · Fauthoux (16 min) · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 01:33 UTC

Who is out

Maley · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 5, 8 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Fiebich · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:15 UTC) · 16, 32 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Carrera · did not play last game

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 8, 27 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Pili · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 06:00 UTC) · 16, 6 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Cannon · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:30 UTC) · 13, 13 and 12 min in the last 3 games

Martin · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 9, 17 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Makani · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Wed 00:45 UTC) · 18, 23 and 18 min in the last 3 games

Morgan · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 21, 18 and 21 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 6 players (Ogwumike, Burrell, Atkins, Fauthoux, Gardner, Johannes) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Wheeler: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 17.9 in the last 5 games, about 10.1 more than usual

Allen: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 17.2 in the last 5 games, about 6.8 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 127 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Maley out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fiebich out (Sat 23:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Carrera out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pili out (Sun 06:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Cannon out (Wed 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Martin out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Makani out (Wed 00:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Morgan out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 3 of 5 picks won3 won, 2 lost · +0.51 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 3.1% higher than the last before the start · 7 lines checked, 2 scored but not picked · checked Sun 00:52 UTC

Jonquel Jones · assists 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.3 min (29 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.71 → Won +0.71 per 1 staked

Erica Wheeler · points 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 28.7 min (28 expected)

Pick: Over 9.5 at 1.91 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Ariel Atkins · assists 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.2 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.74 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Rae Burrell · assists 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.3 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.98 → Won +0.98 per 1 staked

Dearica Hamby · points 13.5 → 16 · 2.5 above the line · played 30.2 min (29 expected)

Pick: Over 13.5 at 1.82 → Won +0.82 per 1 staked

7 other players with a posted line

Rebecca Allen · points 6.5 → 13 · 6.5 above the line · played 25.7 min (24 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.84

Marine Johannes · points 6.5 → 10 · 3.5 above the line · played 22 min (16 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Breanna Stewart · points 22.5 → 11 · 11.5 below the line · played 31.2 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.96

Nneka Ogwumike · points 16.5 → 10 · 6.5 below the line · played 30.6 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.97

Sabrina Ionescu · points 18.5 → 20 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.6 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Pauline Astier · points 7.5 → 7 · 0.5 below the line · played 17.3 min (20 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Cameron Brink · points 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 19.2 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.80

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYL vs LAS · last 16 games · NYL leads · NYL record 12–4 · average score 91.8–84.4 · NYL has won by 7.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

13 Aug · LAS 81 at NYL 85NYL won

28 Jul · NYL 113 at LAS 109NYL won

21 Jun · NYL 97 at LAS 98NYL lost

What each defense gives up per game

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.6 points · 31.5 rebounds · 21.4 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 34.3% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.3 vs average

NYL gives up 86.6 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 8.5, expected total 187.5 (Thu 03:24 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 8, expected total 186 (Thu 22:48 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 7

Rae Burrell · O 2.5 assists−102value_edge_pct +2.67 · kelly 0.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Erica Wheeler · O 9.5 points−110value_edge_pct +1.37 · kelly 0.40u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Ariel Atkins · O 2.5 assists−136value_edge_pct +1.00 · kelly 0.35u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Erica Wheeler · O 8.5 points−114value_edge_pct −2.28 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Jonquel Jones · O 2.5 assists−141value_edge_pct −2.91 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Dearica Hamby · O 13.5 points−122value_edge_pct −3.87 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Dearica Hamby · O 14.5 points+115value_edge_pct −5.69 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 7

Jonquel Jones Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.71ubet −141 → close −166 · CLV +3.9¢ · bet_clv:301100 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.8% · actual 4 · 33.3 min · startedJones eclipsed the 2.5 assist line by recording 4 dimes while logging 33 minutes and dominating the glass with 18 rebounds, which kept her heavily involved in her team's offensive flow. Her elevated usage and floor time drove the playmaking volume needed to clear the over.

Ariel Atkins Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −136 → close −159 · CLV +3.8¢ · bet_clv:301102 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 28.2 min · startedAtkins finished one assist short despite playing 28 minutes, hampered by poor offensive efficiency (1-5 FG, 11% usage) that limited her ability to generate secondary scoring opportunities and create for teammates.

Rae Burrell Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.98ubet −102 → close −102 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:301101 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.8% · actual 3 · 33.3 min · startedBurrell's 34% usage rate and 33 minutes of floor time gave her plenty of opportunities to facilitate, and she delivered the extra assist needed to clear the over despite turning it over four times. Her efficient scoring night (66% TS, 10-19 FG) kept defenses honest and created passing lanes to reach three dimes.

Erica Wheeler Over 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −110 → close −134 · CLV +4.9¢ · bet_clv:301106 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 6 · 28.7 min · startedWheeler's 3-for-9 shooting (33% TS) and 0-for-5 from three left her well short, as she managed just 6 points despite playing 29 minutes with solid usage at 20%.

Erica Wheeler Over 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −114 → close −124 · CLV +2.1¢ · bet_clv:301105 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 6 · 28.7 min · startedWheeler's cold shooting night—just 3-for-9 from the field (33% TS) with an 0-for-5 three-point line—left her short despite 29 minutes and solid playmaking, as her inefficient 20% usage rate couldn't generate enough scoring volume to clear 8.5.

Dearica Hamby Over 14.5 PTSWIN +1.15ubet +115 → close −102 · CLV +4.0¢ · bet_clv:301104 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.9% · actual 16 · 30.2 min · startedHamby's efficient 7-11 shooting (64% FG) and 30 minutes of floor time easily carried her past 14.5 points despite a quiet day from three-point range, as her high-volume paint touches and 20% usage rate generated enough scoring opportunities to land 16 points.

Dearica Hamby Over 13.5 PTSWIN +0.82ubet −122 → close −138 · CLV +3.0¢ · bet_clv:301103 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.8% · actual 16 · 30.2 min · startedHamby's efficient 7-11 shooting (64% FG) on 30 minutes and 20% usage was enough to clear 13.5, though she left points on the board at the free-throw line (2-5). Her high volume from the field and consistent playing time delivered the over despite limited three-point opportunities.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 55 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 55 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 171 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 183 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 183 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 185 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 211 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 107 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 424 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 551 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 68 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 92 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 222 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 567 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 231 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 573 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 581 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 272 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 276 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 835 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 294 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 639 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 920 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 727 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 924 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 931 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 950 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 956 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 968 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.