Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.
Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted
Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
Our picks, raw · 15
Alanna Smith · U 2.5 assists+123value_edge_pct +1.38 · kelly 0.30u · price_check unchecked · rank 1
Odyssey Sims · U 10.5 points−103value_edge_pct −1.68 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2
Kelsey Mitchell · O 24.5 points−127value_edge_pct −2.16 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3
Paige Bueckers · U 21.5 points−115value_edge_pct −2.50 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4
Odyssey Sims · U 11.5 points+104value_edge_pct −2.63 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5
Awak Kuier · U 8.5 points−107value_edge_pct −3.08 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6
Paige Bueckers · U 6.5 assists−133value_edge_pct −3.15 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7
Lexie Hull · U 5.5 points−130value_edge_pct −3.44 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8
Kelsey Mitchell · O 25.5 points−110value_edge_pct −3.80 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9
Odyssey Sims · U 4.5 assists−139value_edge_pct −4.04 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12
Odyssey Sims · U 3.5 assists+115value_edge_pct −4.13 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15
Awak Kuier · U 4.5 rebounds−106value_edge_pct −4.17 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17
Odyssey Sims · U 2.5 rebounds−127value_edge_pct −4.36 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 19
Odyssey Sims · U 12.5 points−122value_edge_pct −4.41 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 20
Monique Billings · O 5.5 points−139value_edge_pct −4.45 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 21
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 20
Odyssey Sims Under 11.5 PTSWIN +1.04ubet +104 → close −104 · CLV +2.0¢ · bet_clv:307554 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.7% · actual 11 · 23.3 min · startedSims stayed just under the number despite solid efficiency (70% TS), limited by 23 minutes and a modest 19% usage rate that kept her scoring opportunities in check. Her 3-7 shooting from the field simply didn't generate enough volume to push past 11.5 points.
Odyssey Sims Under 2.5 REBWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −114 · CLV −2.7¢ · bet_clv:307551 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.5% · actual 2 · 23.3 min · startedSims stayed well under the board despite efficient scoring (70% TS), grabbing just 2 rebounds in 23 minutes—limited opportunity and usage (19%) kept her off the glass even though she stayed out of foul trouble (2 PF).
Odyssey Sims Under 12.5 PTSWIN +0.82ubet −122 → close −132 · CLV +1.9¢ · bet_clv:309593 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.5% · actual 11 · 23.3 min · startedSims stayed under 12.5 despite solid efficiency (70% TS) because her 19% usage rate and 23 minutes limited her volume—she attempted just 7 field goals total. The under cashed on a quiet night in terms of shot volume, not poor shooting.
Odyssey Sims Under 4.5 ASTWIN +0.72ubet −139 → close −146 · CLV +1.2¢ · bet_clv:307553 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.8% · actual 2 · 23.3 min · startedSims' playmaking dried up despite solid scoring efficiency; she logged only 23 minutes and recorded just 2 assists on low usage (19%), well below the 4.5 line.
Alanna Smith Under 2.5 ASTWIN +1.23ubet +123 → close +136 · CLV −2.5¢ · bet_clv:307556 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.5% · actual 2 · 35.1 min · startedSmith's playmaking was limited despite 35 minutes on the floor, finishing with exactly 2 assists as her 16% usage rate and ball-heavy offensive role (4-11 FG attempts) left little opportunity for secondary contributions.
Paige Bueckers Under 6.5 ASTWIN +0.75ubet −133 → close −120 · CLV −2.5¢ · bet_clv:307562 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.3% · actual 6 · 36.5 min · startedBueckers stayed under the 6.5 assist line despite 36 minutes and high usage (30%), as she prioritized scoring with 29 points on efficient 11-21 shooting rather than facilitating—she recorded just 6 dimes with only 2 turnovers, indicating a score-first approach. The low assist total was compounded by limited ball movement in a game where UConn struggled overall (-7 +/-), reducing opportunities for playmaking.
Lexie Hull Under 5.5 PTSWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −132 · CLV +0.4¢ · bet_clv:307566 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.6% · actual 0 · 12.4 min · benchHull managed just 12 minutes off the bench and went scoreless on 2 shot attempts (0-2 FG), with minimal usage at 7%, keeping her well below the 5.5-point line. Limited opportunity and cold shooting combined to make this a comfortable under.
Odyssey Sims Under 3.5 ASTWIN +1.15ubet +115 → close +114 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:307552 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.6% · actual 2 · 23.3 min · startedSims stayed under the assists line despite solid scoring (11 pts on 70% TS) because her playmaking was limited to just 2 dimes in 23 minutes, a direct result of 19% usage and 2 turnovers that constrained her ball-handling opportunities.
Alanna Smith Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.59ubet −169 → close −146 · CLV −3.5¢ · bet_clv:309584 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.9% · actual 2 · 35.1 min · startedSmith's playmaking was limited despite heavy minutes (35), as her 16% usage rate and 2 turnovers left little opportunity for assists. She was primarily a rebounder and scorer (7 boards, 8 points on poor shooting), not a facilitator in this game's offensive flow.
Paige Bueckers Under 21.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −115 → close −110 · CLV −1.1¢ · bet_clv:307560 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.2% · bad_price · actual 29 · 36.5 min · startedBueckers exceeded the under by 8 points on an efficient 11-21 shooting night (52 FG%), converting all five free throws and logging 36 minutes with 30% usage to carry the offensive load. Her 62% true shooting marked a hot performance that overwhelmed the betting line.
Kelsey Mitchell Over 25.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −110 → close −110 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:307564 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.4% · unexplained · actual 23 · 35.9 min · startedMitchell fell just short despite heavy usage (30%) and high volume (21 FG attempts), hampered by poor three-point shooting (1-7) that kept her efficiency flat at 50% TS. She needed closer to 26 points to cash and came up two short, undone by perimeter struggles in an otherwise high-volume performance.
Kelsey Mitchell Over 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −127 → close −123 · CLV −0.8¢ · bet_clv:307563 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.7% · bad_price · actual 23 · 35.9 min · startedMitchell came up one point short despite heavy usage (30%) and nearly 36 minutes of action, held back by poor perimeter shooting (1-7 from three) that forced her into an inefficient night at 50% true shooting.
Paige Bueckers Under 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −161 → close −180 · CLV +2.6¢ · bet_clv:307561 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.8% · conversion_unlucky · actual 6 · 36.5 min · startedBueckers stayed on the floor for 36 minutes and drove offensive rebounding opportunities with 30% usage, grabbing 6 boards to exceed the 4.5 line despite playing on a team that got outscored by 7.
Awak Kuier Under 8.5 PTSWIN +0.93ubet −107 → close −107 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:307557 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.1% · actual 8 · 27.9 min · startedKuier hit the under on inefficient shooting, going 2-for-6 from the field (33%) and 1-for-4 from three despite playing 28 minutes with 15% usage. Her reliance on free throws (3-4 FT) and low field-goal volume kept her just at the line despite solid minutes.
Odyssey Sims Under 10.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −103 → close −110 · CLV +1.6¢ · bet_clv:307555 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 11 · 23.3 min · startedSims exceeded the under with efficient shooting, going 3-for-6 from three-point range (50%) and 2-for-2 from the free-throw line to reach 11 points in 23 minutes despite a modest 3-7 overall field-goal mark. Her 70% true shooting kept her productive enough to clear the 10.5-point threshold despite low usage at just 19%.
Awak Kuier Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.65ubet −154 → close −133 · CLV −3.5¢ · bet_clv:307558 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.9% · actual 8 · 27.9 min · startedKuier's inefficient 2-6 shooting (33% FG) and low 15% usage rate kept her well below the scoring line despite playing 28 minutes. She relied heavily on free throws (3-4) to salvage any points, but her limited offensive touches and poor field-goal conversion made the under a straightforward beat.
Awak Kuier Under 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −106 · bet_clv:307559 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.3% · unexplained · actual 6 · 27.9 min · started
Monique Billings Over 3.5 REBWIN +0.66ubet −152 · bet_clv:307568 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.5% · actual 7 · 14.4 min · bench
Monique Billings Over 5.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −139 · bet_clv:307567 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.6% · unexplained · actual 2 · 14.4 min · bench
Lexie Hull Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.43ubet −233 · bet_clv:307565 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.6% · actual 2 · 12.4 min · bench
Data fetches · 56
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 45 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 46 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 50 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 57 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 58 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 59 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 60 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 61 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 155 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 170 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 177 ms
sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 199 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 202 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 109 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 389 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 803 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 825 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 888 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 896 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 899 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 900 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1033 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1085 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1086 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 1327 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1211 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 3143 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 25 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 96 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 117 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 121 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 124 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 139 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 143 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 181 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 205 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 218 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 219 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 247 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 248 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 254 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 261 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 277 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 293 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 312 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 316 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 334 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 344 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 361 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 552 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 560 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 604 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 614 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 620 ms