WNBA · Finalupdated 07:23 UTC

Portland Fire vs Seattle Storm

at Seattle Storm

SEA expected to win by about 4 · both teams together expected to score about 180 points · odds to win: POR 2.24, SEA 1.68

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 00:36 UTC

POR 84 – SEA 82

Final · 2 of 4 picks won

4 picks checked: 2 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Fire, SEA = Seattle Storm.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

E. Magbegor · Under 7.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.97 · last price before start 1.87Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.97 · Our price was 2.7% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.77 by BetOnline.ag (Thu 15:56 UTC); latest 1.87 at Caesars (Sat 01:38 UTC). The 7.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

A. Fam · Under 8.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.82 · last price before start 1.80Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

J. Melbourne · Under 5.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.77 · last price before start 1.67Won +0.77 per 1 staked

E. Engstler · Under 10.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.76 · last price before start 1.74Won +0.76 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Fireplaying SEA

SBridget Carleton · 30 min expected

points 16.5 → 14 actual

SMegan DiLeo · 26 min expected

points 13.5 → 14 actual

SEmily Engstler · 24 min expected

points 10.5 → 9 actual

SCarla Leite · 20 min expected

points 16.5 → 14 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Puoch (22 expected minutes) · Samuelson (18 min) · +5 more

Seattle Stormplaying POR

SNatisha Hiedeman · 32 min expected

points 14.5 → 9 actual

SDominique Malonga · 30 min expected

points 19.5 → 9 actual

SJade Melbourne · 27 min expected

assists 5.5 → 2 actual

SEzi Magbegor · 26 min expected

points 7.5 → 13 actual

SJordan Horston · 21 min expected

points 6.5 → 12 actual

Awa Fam · 19 min expected

points 8.5 → 20 actual

Zia Cooke · 17 min expected

points 9.5 → 4 actual

Katie Lou Samuelson · 12 min expected

points 5.5 → 3 actual

2 players have no line from any bookmaker: Dolson (10 expected minutes) · Thierry (6 min)

What could go wrong

updated 07:23 UTC

Who is out

Okonkwo · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 23:30 UTC) · 18, 11 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Harrison · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Wed 01:15 UTC) · 16, 23 and 6 min in the last 3 games

Out Johnson · left ankle · SEA

Out Feagin · left knee · POR

Out Mair · coach's decision · SEA

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. 1 player with a line is expected to play 15 minutes or less. For 2 players (Winterburn, Oblak) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Leite: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 27.5 in the last 5 games, about 7.5 fewer than usual

Melbourne: expected to play 27 minutes, averaged 21.3 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 more than usual

Fam: expected to play 19 minutes, averaged 26.0 in the last 5 games, about 7.0 fewer than usual

Samuelson: expected to play only 12 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 22 of the 139 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Okonkwo out (Thu 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harrison out (Wed 01:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Feagin out · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 7 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 4 picks won2 won, 2 lost · −0.47 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 1.8% higher than the last before the start · 13 lines checked, 9 scored but not picked · checked Mon 02:52 UTC

Awa Fam · points 8.5 → 20 · 11.5 above the line · played 22.2 min (19 expected)

Pick: Under 8.5 at 1.82 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Ezi Magbegor · points 7.5 → 13 · 5.5 above the line · played 26.5 min (26 expected)

Pick: Under 7.5 at 1.97 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Jade Melbourne · assists 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 34 min (27 expected)

Pick: Under 5.5 at 1.77 → Won +0.77 per 1 staked

Emily Engstler · points 10.5 → 9 · 1.5 below the line · played 27.4 min (24 expected)

Pick: Under 10.5 at 1.76 → Won +0.76 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

Jordan Horston · points 6.5 → 12 · 5.5 above the line · played 25.3 min (21 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.84

Zia Cooke · points 9.5 → 4 · 5.5 below the line · played 13.7 min (17 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.83

Dominique Malonga · points 19.5 → 9 · 10.5 below the line · played 23.4 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.96

Katie Lou Samuelson · points 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 11.7 min (12 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.91

Natisha Hiedeman · points 14.5 → 9 · 5.5 below the line · played 31.9 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88

Bridget Carleton · points 16.5 → 14 · 2.5 below the line · played 28.5 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Carla Leite · points 16.5 → 14 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.4 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Megan DiLeo · points 13.5 → 14 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.9 min (26 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.84

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SEA vs POR · last 4 games · POR leads · SEA record 0–4 · average score 84.0–88.8 · SEA has lost by 4.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

14 Aug · POR 84 at SEA 82SEA lost

8 Aug · SEA 93 at POR 100SEA lost

4 Jul · POR 77 at SEA 72SEA lost

17 Jun · SEA 89 at POR 94SEA lost

What each defense gives up per game

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.0 vs average

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.0+1.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had SEA expected to win by 2.5, expected total 180 (Fri 04:27 UTC) and later SEA expected to win by 4, expected total 180 (Sat 00:36 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 6

Awa Fam · U 8.5 points−122value_edge_pct −3.80 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Awa Fam · U 7.5 points−106value_edge_pct −3.96 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Ezi Magbegor · U 7.5 points−103value_edge_pct −4.05 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Ezi Magbegor · U 6.5 points+110value_edge_pct −4.09 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 14

Jade Melbourne · U 5.5 assists−130value_edge_pct −4.16 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 16

Emily Engstler · U 10.5 points−132value_edge_pct −4.35 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 18

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 13

Emily Engstler Under 10.5 PTSWIN +0.76ubet −132 → close −135 · CLV +0.6¢ · bet_clv:310497 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.4% · actual 9 · 27.4 min · startedEngstler struggled from the field, converting just 4 of 12 shots (33%) while missing all four 3-point attempts despite playing 27 minutes, keeping her well below the 10.5-point line. Her 19% usage rate and 36% true shooting percentage reflect limited offensive efficiency that made the under a comfortable hit.

Dominique Malonga Under 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −188 → close −188 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:308466 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.1% · unexplained · actual 5 · 23.4 min · startedMalonga doubled the projection with 5 assists despite shooting just 30% from the field, leveraging her 30% usage rate and 23 minutes to facilitate offense even as her own scoring dried up. Her playmaking from the post and ball movement kept her well above the 2.5 assist line despite the inefficient shooting night.

Awa Fam Under 7.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −106 → close −107 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:308462 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 20 · 22.2 min · startedFam torched the under with elite efficiency, shooting 7-12 from the field (58%) including 4-8 from three (50%) while maintaining a 78% true shooting percentage on 25% usage in 22 minutes. Her hot shooting—especially from deep—drove her well past the 7.5-point line despite modest playing time.

Ezi Magbegor Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −152 → close −156 · CLV +0.6¢ · bet_clv:308469 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 26.5 min · startedMagbegor grabbed 8 rebounds in 26 minutes, exceeding the 5.5 line by banking 3 extra boards despite shooting just 4-for-12 from the field; her rebounding activity held steady even as her offensive efficiency sagged.

Ezi Magbegor Over 1.5 ASTWIN +0.61ubet −165 → close −182 · CLV +2.3¢ · bet_clv:308470 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.7% · actual 3 · 26.5 min · startedMagbegor delivered the over with 3 assists in 26 minutes, benefiting from elevated usage (20%) and her role as a secondary playmaker in the frontcourt despite modest shooting efficiency (4-12 FG). The over cleared comfortably as she facilitated from the post and mid-range throughout her minutes played.

Ezi Magbegor Under 6.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +110 → close −102 · CLV +2.9¢ · bet_clv:308467 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 13 · 26.5 min · startedMagbegor doubled the projection by converting all three free throws and hitting 2-of-4 from three, offsetting a poor 4-of-12 overall mark to reach 13 points in 26 minutes of run. Her 20% usage rate provided enough volume to find 6 additional points beyond the 6.5 line despite mediocre efficiency.

Awa Fam Under 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −122 → close −125 · CLV +0.6¢ · bet_clv:308463 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 20 · 22.2 min · startedFam torched the line on elite efficiency, hitting 7-of-12 from the field (58%) and 4-of-8 from three (50%) to reach 20 points in just 22 minutes—more than double the 8.5-point prop. Her 78% true shooting and high volume from deep were well above her typical output.

Natisha Hiedeman Over 4.5 ASTWIN +0.69ubet −144 → close −167 · CLV +3.5¢ · bet_clv:308460 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.5% · actual 5 · 31.9 min · startedHiedeman hit the over on 5 assists by logging 32 minutes and maintaining her role as the primary ball-handler, recording one assist per 6.4 minutes despite modest 16% usage. Her playmaking volume came through even with an inefficient 3-9 shooting night, as she prioritized facilitating over scoring.

Jade Melbourne Under 5.5 ASTWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −149 · CLV +3.3¢ · bet_clv:308464 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.2% · actual 2 · 34.0 min · startedMelbourne's playmaking dried up despite heavy minutes (34), recording just 2 assists while turning the ball over 3 times—a clear sign she couldn't facilitate the offense effectively. Her low usage rate (18%) and focus on scoring (12 pts on 4-12 shooting) limited her opportunities to rack up dimes.

Ezi Magbegor Under 7.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −103 → close −115 · CLV +2.7¢ · bet_clv:308468 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 13 · 26.5 min · startedMagbegor nearly doubled the projection on efficient shooting, converting 3-of-4 from the free-throw line and 2-of-4 from three despite an otherwise modest 4-12 FG performance, while her 26 minutes and 20% usage rate gave her sufficient opportunities to surpass 7.5 points.

Jade Melbourne Under 2.5 REBWIN +0.45ubet −222 · bet_clv:308465 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.7% · actual 1 · 34.0 min · started

Bridget Carleton Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.44ubet −227 · bet_clv:310490 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.2% · actual 2 · 28.5 min · startedCarleton was used primarily as a scorer (20% usage) rather than a playmaker, recording only 2 assists despite 28 minutes; her offensive role and lack of ball-handling opportunities kept her well short of the 3.5 line.

Awa Fam Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.46ubet −217 · bet_clv:308461 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.2% · actual 0 · 22.2 min · started

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 52 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 90 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 92 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 94 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 170 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 192 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 208 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 221 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 223 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 229 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 116 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 469 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 475 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 318 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 351 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 353 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 371 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 376 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 457 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 472 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 475 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 476 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 785 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 785 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 786 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 490 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 494 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 495 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 803 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 987 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 535 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 750 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 755 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 765 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 815 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 822 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 849 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 851 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 906 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.