WNBA · Finalupdated 07:35 UTC

Los Angeles Sparks vs Washington Mystics

at Washington Mystics

WAS expected to win by about 6.5 · both teams together expected to score about 172.5 points · odds to win: LAS 3.10, WAS 1.40

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 22:01 UTC

LAS 70 – WAS 80

Final · 3 of 6 picks won

6 picks checked: 3 won, 3 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LAS = Los Angeles Sparks, WAS = Washington Mystics.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

R. Burrell · Over 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 2.15 · last price before start 1.88Won +1.15 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.15 · Our price was 6.8% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.71 by FanDuel (Fri 15:20 UTC); latest 1.85 at DraftKings (Sat 23:03 UTC). The 2.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

D. Hamby · Over 14.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.13 · last price before start 2.08Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

S. Austin · Over 19.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.97 · last price before start 1.99Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

E. Wheeler · Over 8.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.88 · last price before start 1.68Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

A. Atkins · Over 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.72 · last price before start 1.57Won +0.72 per 1 staked

L. Betts · Over 4.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.71 · last price before start 1.68Won +0.71 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 10 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Los Angeles Sparksplaying WAS

SNneka Ogwumike · 34 min expected

points 15.5 → 15 actual

SDearica Hamby · 32 min expected

points 14.5 → 11 actual

SRae Burrell · 32 min expected

assists 2.5 → 3 actual

SAriel Atkins · 31 min expected

assists 2.5 → 3 actual

SErica Wheeler · 30 min expected

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Chance Gray · 18 min expected

points 4.5 → 0 actual

Cameron Brink · Out · ribs

points 7.5 → did not play, so no result

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Park (18 expected minutes) · Morgan (5 min) · Martin · +1 more

Washington Mysticsplaying LAS

SSonia Citron · 33 min expected

points 17.5 → 21 actual

SShakira Austin · 30 min expected

points 19.5 → 17 actual

SKiki Iriafen · 29 min expected

points 14.5 → 19 actual

SMichaela Onyenwere · 24 min expected

points 7.5 → 2 actual

SGeorgia Amoore · 22 min expected

points 5.5 → 0 actual

Cotie McMahon · 22 min expected

points 7.5 → 7 actual

Lauren Betts · 18 min expected

rebounds 4.5 → 5 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Laney-Hamilton (15 expected minutes) · Florez (3 min) · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:35 UTC

Who is out

Dugalic · did not play last game

Littlepage-Buggs · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 4, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Out Brink · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 24, 28 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Martin · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 9, 17 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Makani · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Wed 00:45 UTC) · 18, 23 and 18 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 23:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Park, Gray, Dugalic, Florez) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Hamby: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 24.9 in the last 5 games, about 7.1 more than usual

Wheeler: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 17.9 in the last 5 games, about 12.1 more than usual

Atkins: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 22.3 in the last 5 games, about 8.7 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 16 of the 143 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Dugalic out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Brink out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Martin out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Makani out (Wed 00:45 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 3 of 6 picks won3 won, 3 lost · −0.42 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 3.3% higher than the last before the start · 13 lines checked, 7 scored but not picked · checked Mon 23:52 UTC

Erica Wheeler · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 23.3 min (30 expected)

Pick: Over 8.5 at 1.88 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Dearica Hamby · points 14.5 → 11 · 3.5 below the line · played 32.7 min (32 expected)

Pick: Over 14.5 at 2.13 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Rae Burrell · assists 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.1 min (32 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 2.15 → Won +1.15 per 1 staked

Ariel Atkins · assists 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 29.7 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.72 → Won +0.72 per 1 staked

Shakira Austin · points 19.5 → 17 · 2.5 below the line · played 31.2 min (30 expected)

Pick: Over 19.5 at 1.97 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market

Lauren Betts · rebounds 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 21.5 min (18 expected)

Pick: Over 4.5 at 1.71 → Won +0.71 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

Chance Gray · points 4.5 → 0 · 4.5 below the line · played 6.8 min (18 expected) · no final price

Georgia Amoore · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 11 min (22 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.96, Under —

Michaela Onyenwere · points 7.5 → 2 · 5.5 below the line · played 15.4 min (24 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.87

Kiki Iriafen · points 14.5 → 19 · 4.5 above the line · played 27.3 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.01

Sonia Citron · points 17.5 → 21 · 3.5 above the line · played 34.2 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.80

Cotie McMahon · points 7.5 → 7 · 0.5 below the line · played 22.4 min (22 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.92, Under —

Nneka Ogwumike · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.8 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Cameron Brink · points 7.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

WAS vs LAS · last 16 games · LAS leads · WAS record 6–10 · average score 81.0–82.3 · WAS has lost by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Aug · WAS 82 at LAS 88WAS lost

15 Aug · LAS 70 at WAS 80WAS won

29 May · LAS 92 at WAS 87WAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

WAS gives up82.7 points · 30.1 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.8% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.3 vs average

WAS gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had WAS expected to win by 6.5, expected total 172.5 (Sat 03:10 UTC) and had not changed it by Sat 22:01 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 7

Rae Burrell · O 2.5 assists+115value_edge_pct +0.53 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Dearica Hamby · O 14.5 points+113value_edge_pct +0.12 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Erica Wheeler · O 8.5 points−114value_edge_pct −1.69 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Shakira Austin · O 19.5 points−103value_edge_pct −2.56 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Dearica Hamby · O 13.5 points−119value_edge_pct −2.70 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Ariel Atkins · O 2.5 assists−139value_edge_pct −2.70 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Lauren Betts · O 4.5 rebounds−141value_edge_pct −3.98 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 13

Sonia Citron Over 3.5 ASTWIN +0.65ubet −155 → close −175 · CLV +2.9¢ · bet_clv:311980 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 60.0% · actual 8 · 34.2 min · startedCitron's ball movement was on full display: she logged 34 minutes and dished 8 assists on 22% usage, showcasing her playmaking over volume scoring. Her efficient 73% true shooting on high volume gave her plenty of touch and rhythm, enabling her to facilitate at a high rate.

Ariel Atkins Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.72ubet −139 → close −174 · CLV +5.3¢ · bet_clv:311982 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.6% · actual 3 · 29.7 min · startedAtkins hit the over on assists despite a brutal 0-7 shooting night, leaning on her playmaking and defensive activity to stay useful; 30 minutes of run in a game that likely called for ball movement kept her assist opportunities alive even as her scoring completely dried up.

Dearica Hamby Over 13.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −119 → close −132 · CLV +2.6¢ · bet_clv:311975 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 11 · 32.7 min · startedHamby's inefficient 4-12 shooting night (33% FG) left her three points short despite logging 33 minutes; poor shot selection and execution rather than playing time limited her scoring upside.

Dearica Hamby Over 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +113 → close +108 · CLV +1.1¢ · bet_clv:311976 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 11 · 32.7 min · startedHamby's inefficient 4-12 shooting (33% FG) and reliance on free throws (3-4 FT) left her four points short despite playing 33 minutes; her 24% usage rate and 40% true shooting percentage both ranked below her season averages, suggesting limited offensive rhythm.

Cotie McMahon Over 1.5 ASTWIN +0.65ubet −155 → close −167 · CLV +1.8¢ · bet_clv:311973 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.2% · actual 2 · 22.4 min · startedMcMahon cleared the low bar with 2 assists despite inefficient scoring (3-9 FG) and modest usage at 20%, as her 22 minutes and role as a facilitator on the boards (9 rebounds) kept her involved in the offense enough to hit the over.

Rae Burrell Over 2.5 ASTWIN +1.15ubet +115 → close −114 · CLV +6.8¢ · bet_clv:311984 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.8% · actual 3 · 34.1 min · startedBurrell stayed on the floor for 34 minutes and operated at 23% usage in a run-heavy offense, naturally generating multiple playmaking opportunities that yielded the third assist needed to clear the over.

Cotie McMahon Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.51ubet −196 → close −182 · CLV −1.7¢ · bet_clv:311974 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.1% · actual 2 · 22.4 min · startedMcMahon's playmaking touch was absent despite solid floor time, finishing with just 2 assists on a 20% usage rate while her shot wasn't falling (3-9 FG, 0-3 from three), limiting her ability to create for others.

Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −177 → close −177 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:311977 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.4% · unexplained · actual 17 · 31.2 min · started

Erica Wheeler Over 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −114 → close −146 · CLV +6.1¢ · bet_clv:311981 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 6 · 23.3 min · startedWheeler's efficient 75% TS masked a low-volume night: she attempted just 4 field goals in 23 minutes with 10% usage, leaving her 2.5 points short despite solid shooting splits. The lack of offensive opportunities—not poor efficiency—sank the over.

Shakira Austin Over 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −103 → close −101 · CLV −0.5¢ · bet_clv:311978 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.4% · bad_price · actual 17 · 31.2 min · startedAustin fell 2.5 points short despite solid efficiency (58% TS on 25% usage), as her 7-of-13 shooting simply didn't generate enough volume in 31 minutes to clear the 19.5 threshold. She'd need to have hit one additional shot—a realistic outcome given her 54% FG rate—to cash the over.

Lauren Betts Over 4.5 PTSWIN +0.53ubet −190 → close −190 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:316600 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.1% · actual 8 · 21.5 min · startedBetts' efficient 4-for-6 shooting (67% TS) from the field easily cleared the 4.5-point line, with all eight points coming from two-point range over 22 minutes of action.

Lauren Betts Over 4.5 REBWIN +0.71ubet −141 → close −146 · CLV +0.8¢ · bet_clv:311979 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.2% · actual 5 · 21.5 min · startedBetts secured 5 rebounds in 22 minutes of efficient play with no fouls, staying on the court to consistently attack the glass despite modest 17% usage. Her size and positioning on a +15 team that controlled the game allowed her to convert rebounding opportunities without needing high scoring volume.

Ariel Atkins Over 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −148 → close −162 · CLV +2.2¢ · bet_clv:311983 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.8% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 29.7 min · startedAtkins fell one rebound short despite playing 30 minutes, hampered by an abysmal 0-7 shooting night and 16% usage rate that limited her opportunities to crash the glass or stay engaged in ball movement. Her historic shooting inefficiency (6% TS%) and three personal fouls likely kept her passive and limited her rebounding activity in what was otherwise available playing time.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 28 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 117 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 120 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 126 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 135 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 159 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 170 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 132 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 304 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 646 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 264 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 306 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 323 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 338 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 835 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 837 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 386 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 407 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 432 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 927 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 928 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 455 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 457 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 459 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 461 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 992 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1003 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 535 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 672 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 686 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 749 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 805 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 861 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 887 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.