WNBA · Finalupdated 07:22 UTC

Indiana Fever vs Atlanta Dream

at Atlanta Dream

ATL expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 187 points · odds to win: IND 2.15, ATL 1.75

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 19:57 UTC

IND 95 – ATL 91

Final · 0 of 3 picks won

3 picks checked: 0 won, 3 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: IND = Indiana Fever, ATL = Atlanta Dream.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. Mitchell · Over 25.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.11 · last price before start 2.11Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.11 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle 2.11, 2 min ago

First offered at 1.91 by Pinnacle (Sun 13:15 UTC); latest 1.87 at Pinnacle (Sun 20:59 UTC). The line moved from 25.5 to 24.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.40 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

A. Gray · Under 3.5 assistsLostPosted at 1.88 · last price before start 1.88Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

M. Timpson · Under 6.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.73 · last price before start 1.67Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Feverplaying ATL

SCaitlin Clark · 34 min expected

points 22.5 → 26 actual

SKelsey Mitchell · 34 min expected

points 25.5 → 20 actual

SAliyah Boston · 29 min expected

points 16.5 → 18 actual

SMakayla Timpson · 27 min expected

rebounds 6.5 → 7 actual

SLexie Hull · 16 min expected

points 3.5 → 0 actual

Sophie Cunningham · 22 min expected

points 7.5 → 3 actual

Monique Billings · 16 min expected

points 6.5 → 3 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Harris (11 expected minutes) · Hines-Allen (10 min) · +2 more

Atlanta Dreamplaying IND

SAllisha Gray · 33 min expected

points 18.5 → 32 actual

SRhyne Howard · 33 min expected

points 17.5 → 17 actual

SAngel Reese · 32 min expected

points 15.5 → 15 actual

SNaz Hillmon · 28 min expected

points 9.5 → 6 actual

Madina Okot · 16 min expected

points 7.5 → 8 actual

Jordin Canada · Out · illness

points 11.5 → did not play, so no result

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Borlase (19 expected minutes) · Sherrod (16 min) · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:22 UTC

Who is out

Out Jones · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 5, 20 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Canada · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 26, 35 and 27 min in the last 3 games

Walker-Kimbrough · did not play last game

Kone · did not play last game

Hall · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 14, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

VanSlooten · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 10, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Onyiah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 12 and 1 min in the last 2 games

Hines-Allen · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 19, 12 and 15 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 21:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Hull, Billings, Nye, Walker-Kimbrough) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Boston: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 23.0 in the last 5 games, about 6.0 more than usual

Timpson: expected to play 27 minutes, averaged 19.9 in the last 5 games, about 7.1 more than usual

Okot: expected to play 16 minutes, averaged 6.3 in the last 5 games, about 9.7 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 15 of the 129 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Canada out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Walker-Kimbrough out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hall out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: VanSlooten out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Onyiah out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hines-Allen out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 3 picks won0 won, 3 lost · −3.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.7% higher than the last before the start · 10 lines checked, 7 scored but not picked · checked Tue 21:52 UTC

Kelsey Mitchell · points 25.5 → 20 · 5.5 below the line · played 35.9 min (34 expected)

Pick: Over 25.5 at 2.11 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Makayla Timpson · rebounds 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.1 min (27 expected)

Pick: Under 6.5 at 1.73 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

11 other players with a posted line

Lexie Hull · points 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 9.7 min (16 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 2.20, Under —

Allisha Gray · points 18.5 → 32 · 13.5 above the line · played 41.7 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.68, Under 2.08

Sophie Cunningham · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 31.8 min (22 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.87

Monique Billings · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 16.3 min (16 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 2.06, Under —

Naz Hillmon · points 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 33.3 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.76

Caitlin Clark · points 22.5 → 26 · 3.5 above the line · played 40.8 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.79

Aliyah Boston · points 16.5 → 18 · 1.5 above the line · played 36.8 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.76

Madina Okot · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 18.4 min (16 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.83

Angel Reese · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 38.3 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Rhyne Howard · points 17.5 → 17 · 0.5 below the line · played 42.5 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.96

Jordin Canada · points 11.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ATL vs IND · last 23 games · IND leads · ATL record 11–12 · average score 86.0–84.8 · ATL has won by 1.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

16 Aug · IND 95 at ATL 91ATL lost

20 Jun · IND 96 at ATL 113ATL won

18 Jun · ATL 108 at IND 101ATL won

4 Jun · ATL 71 at IND 83ATL lost

18 Sep · IND 87 at ATL 85ATL lost

16 Sep · ATL 60 at IND 77ATL lost

14 Sep · IND 68 at ATL 80ATL won

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.4 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.0% of shots · 33.7% from three-point range · 12.7 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up84.5 points · 31.0 rebounds · 19.2 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.9% of shots · 34.8% from three-point range · 15.4 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.4 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.4 vs average

ATL gives up 84.5 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−2.6 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 2.5, expected total 188.5 (Sun 01:37 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 2, expected total 187 (Sun 19:57 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 4

Kelsey Mitchell · O 25.5 points+111value_edge_pct +1.82 · kelly 0.40u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Kelsey Mitchell · O 24.5 points−107value_edge_pct −0.67 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Allisha Gray · U 3.5 assists−114value_edge_pct −2.75 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Makayla Timpson · U 6.5 rebounds−137value_edge_pct −3.99 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 10

Naz Hillmon Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.47ubet −213 · bet_clv:325943 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.9% · actual 0 · 33.3 min · started

Rhyne Howard Under 19.5 PTSWIN +0.68ubet −147 · bet_clv:325949 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.8% · actual 17 · 42.5 min · startedHoward's cold outside shooting (1-8 from three) and modest field-goal efficiency (4-13 FG) kept her two points shy of the line despite playing 42 minutes, as she relied heavily on free throws (8-8) to compensate for an off perimeter night.

Te-Hina Paopao Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.70ubet −143 · bet_clv:325940 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.2% · actual 0 · 8.6 min · bench · excused

Kelsey Mitchell Over 25.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +111 → close +111 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:320952 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.3% · unexplained · actual 20 · 35.9 min · startedMitchell's 20 points fell short despite playing 36 minutes because she shot just 9-22 (41%) from the field and missed all her free-throw attempts, combining for a 46% true shooting percentage well below her typical efficiency.

Makayla Timpson Under 6.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −137 → close −149 · CLV +2.0¢ · bet_clv:320949 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 7 · 33.1 min · startedTimpson exceeded the 6.5 rebound line by grabbing 7 boards in 33 minutes of heavy usage, capitalizing on efficient scoring (9-13 FG) that kept her on the floor and involved in the offense. Her elevated minute total and 20% usage rate provided enough opportunities to push past the projected total despite modest assist numbers.

Naz Hillmon Under 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −144 → close −110 · CLV −6.6¢ · bet_clv:320950 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.5% · bad_price · actual 6 · 33.3 min · startedHillmon grabbed 6 rebounds despite shooting just 3-for-10 and logging 33 minutes, as her activity on the glass compensated for a quiet offensive night. The under missed because she stayed on the court and capitalized on available rebounding opportunities despite poor scoring efficiency.

Kelsey Mitchell Over 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −107 → close −115 · CLV +1.8¢ · bet_clv:320951 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 20 · 35.9 min · startedMitchell's inefficient 9-22 shooting (41 FG%) and zero free-throw attempts left her 4.5 points short despite heavy minutes and usage, as she couldn't generate her typical scoring volume on a night when her shot wasn't falling.

Allisha Gray Under 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −114 → close −114 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:325945 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.8% · unexplained · actual 5 · 41.7 min · startedGray's ball-handling role expanded in the high-usage game (31% usage, 42 minutes), where she recorded 5 assists—exceeding the 3.5 line—while posting an efficient 11-24 shooting night that kept her on the floor throughout.

Aliyah Boston Under 9.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −145 → close −148 · CLV +0.5¢ · bet_clv:325944 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 14 · 36.8 min · startedBoston dominated the glass with 14 rebounds across 37 minutes, converting 6 of 6 free throws and staying out of foul trouble (2 PF), giving her the volume and opportunity to far exceed the 9.5 line. Her rebounding prowess was on full display despite modest 6-16 shooting, as she secured both ends of the floor and capitalized on extended floor time in a blowout (+13).

Rhyne Howard Over 3.5 ASTWIN +0.70ubet −143 → close −183 · CLV +5.8¢ · bet_clv:320953 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.8% · actual 5 · 42.5 min · startedHoward's 42 minutes of floor time and 18% usage rate gave her plenty of opportunities to facilitate, leading to 5 dimes despite a quiet scoring night (4-13 FG). Her playmaking role expanded as the team's primary ball-handler, pushing the over comfortably past 3.5.

Data fetches · 54

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 138 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 139 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 162 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 223 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 228 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 248 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 254 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 442 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 104 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 548 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 674 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 350 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 363 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 372 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 385 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 386 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 388 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 389 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 431 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 449 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 451 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 454 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 455 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 483 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 486 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 501 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 505 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 743 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 760 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 528 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 766 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1263 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 889 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 900 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 962 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 966 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 971 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1023 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1035 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1111 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1117 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.