WNBA · Finalupdated 07:22 UTC

Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

PHO expected to win by about 5.5 · both teams together expected to score about 178.5 points · odds to win: POR 2.74, PHO 1.48

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 21:30 UTC

POR 88 – PHO 85

Final · 2 of 4 picks won

4 picks checked: 2 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Fire, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

S. Whitcomb · Under 6.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.10 · last price before start 1.83Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.10 · Our price was 6.9% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.83 by FanDuel (Sun 00:35 UTC); latest 1.88 at DraftKings (Sun 22:32 UTC). The line moved from 6.5 to 7.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.50 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

K. Copper · Under 3.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.76 · last price before start 1.72Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

E. Engstler · Under 9.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.74 · last price before start 1.77Won +0.74 per 1 staked

N. Mack · Under 7.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.77 · last price before start 1.77Won +0.77 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Fireplaying PHO

SBridget Carleton · 30 min expected

points 16.5 → 9 actual

SCarla Leite · 28 min expected

points 16.5 → 23 actual

SMegan DiLeo · 27 min expected

points 13.5 → 15 actual

SEmily Engstler · 25 min expected

points 9.5 → 9 actual

SNyadiew Puoch · 18 min expected

points 5.5 → 3 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Samuelson (16 expected minutes) · Winterburn (15 min) · +3 more

Phoenix Mercuryplaying POR

SAlyssa Thomas · 35 min expected

points 16.5 → 17 actual

SKahleah Copper · 34 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 7 actual

SDeWanna Bonner · 30 min expected

points 11.5 → 23 actual

SNoemie Brochant · 24 min expected

points 6.5 → 0 actual

SSami Whitcomb · 20 min expected

points 6.5 → 11 actual

Natasha Mack · 18 min expected

points 7.5 → 7 actual

Valeriane Ayayi · 16 min expected

points 6.5 → 4 actual

2 players have no line from any bookmaker: Suarez (7 expected minutes) · Linskens (4 min)

What could go wrong

updated 07:22 UTC

Who is out

Okonkwo · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 23:30 UTC) · 18, 11 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Out Oblak · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 22, 11 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Out Dunn · developmental player · PHO

Out Plum · left lower leg · PHO

Out Feagin · left knee · POR

Out Ciezki · developmental player · PHO

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 2 players (Buhner, Oblak) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Puoch: expected to play 18 minutes, averaged 26.7 in the last 5 games, about 8.7 fewer than usual

Thomas: expected to play 35 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 6.7 more than usual

Bonner: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 20.8 in the last 5 games, about 9.2 more than usual

Mack: expected to play 18 minutes, averaged 24.6 in the last 5 games, about 6.6 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 13 of the 144 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Okonkwo out (Thu 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Feagin out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Oblak out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 4 picks won2 won, 2 lost · −0.49 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 1.8% higher than the last before the start · 10 lines checked, 6 scored but not picked · checked Tue 23:52 UTC

Kahleah Copper · rebounds 3.5 → 7 · 3.5 above the line · played 36.1 min (34 expected)

Pick: Under 3.5 at 1.76 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Sami Whitcomb · points 6.5 → 11 · 4.5 above the line · played 25.5 min (20 expected)

Pick: Under 6.5 at 2.10 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Natasha Mack · points 7.5 → 7 · 0.5 below the line · played 18.1 min (18 expected)

Pick: Under 7.5 at 1.77 → Won +0.77 per 1 staked

Emily Engstler · points 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 22.1 min (25 expected)

Pick: Under 9.5 at 1.74 → Won +0.74 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

DeWanna Bonner · points 11.5 → 23 · 11.5 above the line · played 32.7 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.00

Noemie Brochant · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 27.2 min (24 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.83

Bridget Carleton · points 16.5 → 9 · 7.5 below the line · played 31.7 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.70

Nyadiew Puoch · points 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 16.6 min (18 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.78

Carla Leite · points 16.5 → 23 · 6.5 above the line · played 27.6 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Valeriane Ayayi · points 6.5 → 4 · 2.5 below the line · played 9.4 min (16 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.74

Megan DiLeo · points 13.5 → 15 · 1.5 above the line · played 27.2 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.90

Alyssa Thomas · points 16.5 → 17 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.9 min (35 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.76

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs POR · last 3 games · PHO leads · PHO record 2–1 · average score 85.7–83.7 · PHO has won by 2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

17 Sep · PHO 94 at POR 91PHO won

16 Aug · POR 88 at PHO 85PHO lost

5 Jun · PHO 78 at POR 72PHO won

What each defense gives up per game

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.0 vs average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had PHO expected to win by 5.5, expected total 176.5 (Sun 01:37 UTC) and later PHO expected to win by 5.5, expected total 178.5 (Sun 21:30 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 5

Sami Whitcomb · U 6.5 points+110value_edge_pct +2.19 · kelly 0.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Sami Whitcomb · U 7.5 points−112value_edge_pct −3.36 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Kahleah Copper · U 3.5 rebounds−132value_edge_pct −3.49 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Emily Engstler · U 9.5 points−135value_edge_pct −3.73 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Natasha Mack · U 7.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.45 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 10

Emily Engstler Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.74ubet −135 → close −130 · CLV −0.9¢ · bet_clv:325012 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.3% · actual 9 · 22.1 min · startedEngstler's limited 22 minutes and 15% usage rate kept her well under the scoring threshold despite efficient 60% true shooting, landing exactly at 9 points. The under cashed by a narrow margin thanks to her restricted floor time rather than poor shot selection.

Kahleah Copper Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −132 → close −138 · CLV +1.1¢ · bet_clv:321947 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 7 · 36.1 min · startedCopper nearly doubled the over/under by grabbing 7 rebounds in 36 minutes of heavy usage (20%), capitalizing on increased offensive opportunities and floor time that pushed her well past the 3.5 threshold.

Natasha Mack Under 7.5 PTSWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −130 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:321941 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · actual 7 · 18.1 min · benchMack's 18 minutes and 17% usage rate left her with limited scoring opportunities, and she managed just 3 made field goals despite a respectable 60% true shooting, finishing at exactly 7 points to cash the under.

Sami Whitcomb Under 7.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −112 → close −110 · CLV −0.4¢ · bet_clv:321943 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.1% · bad_price · actual 11 · 25.5 min · startedWhitcomb's 4-for-4 free throw shooting—unusual efficiency from the line—combined with 26 minutes of playing time pushed her past the under despite shooting just 30% from the field, as the four made free throws accounted for over one-third of her scoring.

Sami Whitcomb Under 6.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +110 → close −120 · CLV +6.9¢ · bet_clv:321942 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 11 · 25.5 min · startedWhitcomb's 4-for-4 free-throw shooting padded her total despite poor field-goal efficiency (3-10 FG, 1-8 3PT), and she logged 26 minutes with elevated usage at 22%, enough to exceed the 6.5-point line despite connecting on just 30% of her shots from the floor.

Bridget Carleton Over 4.5 REBWIN +0.68ubet −147 → close −160 · CLV +2.0¢ · bet_clv:321940 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.1% · actual 5 · 31.7 min · startedCarleton hit the rebounding mark despite an inefficient offensive night (3-15 FG), grabbing 5 boards in 32 minutes while avoiding foul trouble with just 4 PF. Her high usage rate (28%) and extended floor time kept her in position to accumulate glass opportunities even as her shot selection struggled.

Valeriane Ayayi Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.59ubet −170 → close −172 · CLV +0.3¢ · bet_clv:321946 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.6% · actual 1 · 9.4 min · bench · excusedAyayi's limited 9-minute stint and low usage rate (32%) left minimal opportunity for rebounding volume, while playing out of position or on the perimeter in a game flow that didn't generate second-chance opportunities.

Kahleah Copper Over 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −180 → close −177 · CLV −0.4¢ · bet_clv:321948 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.8% · bad_price · actual 1 · 36.1 min · startedCopper's assist total couldn't reach 2 despite 36 minutes of play because she operated primarily as a scorer (20% usage) rather than a facilitator, finishing with just 1 assist on a high-volume scoring night (6-14 FG, 19 pts).

Megan DiLeo Over 3.5 REBWIN +0.60ubet −167 → close −167 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:321944 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.1% · actual 5 · 27.2 min · startedDiLeo grabbed 5 rebounds in 27 minutes of efficient play (68% TS), exceeding the 3.5 line despite modest usage at 18%, with her activity on the glass helping her clear the over by one board.

Noemie Brochant Under 2.5 REBWIN +0.47ubet −213 · bet_clv:321945 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.9% · actual 2 · 27.2 min · started

Data fetches · 53

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 8 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 10 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 10 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 14 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 25 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 94 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 110 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 53 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 73 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 77 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 89 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 90 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 111 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 280 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 318 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 388 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 394 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 413 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 534 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 474 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 603 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 614 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 615 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 619 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 632 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 636 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 640 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 675 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 692 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 912 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 968 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 991 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.