WNBA · Finalupdated 04:51 UTC

Indiana Fever vs Toronto Tempo

at Toronto Tempo

IND expected to win by about 10 · both teams together expected to score about 189.5 points · odds to win: IND 1.20, TOR 4.92

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 21:31 UTC

IND 101 – TOR 95

Final · 4 of 8 picks won

8 picks checked: 4 won, 4 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: IND = Indiana Fever, TOR = Toronto Tempo.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. Rice · Under 4.5 assistsLostPosted at 2.22 · last price before start 2.04Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.22 · Our price was 4.0% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 2.04, 56600 min ago

First offered at 2.23 by Pinnacle (Tue 05:44 UTC); latest 2.04 at Pinnacle (Tue 22:33 UTC). The 4.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

M. Mabrey · Under 4.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.94 · last price before start 1.85Won +0.94 per 1 staked

K. Mitchell · Over 24.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.79 · last price before start 1.79Won +0.79 per 1 staked

M. Timpson · Over 6.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.79 · last price before start 1.76Won +0.79 per 1 staked

M. Timpson · Under 6.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.77 · last price before start 1.80Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

C. Clark · Under 10.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.72 · last price before start 1.62Won +0.72 per 1 staked

A. Morrow · Under 11.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.97 · last price before start 1.96Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

A. Morrow · Under 7.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.80 · last price before start 1.79Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

8 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Feverplaying TOR

SCaitlin Clark · 34 min expected

assists 10.5 → 7 actual

SKelsey Mitchell · 34 min expected

points 24.5 → 29 actual

SAliyah Boston · 32 min expected

points 16.5 → 16 actual

SMakayla Timpson · 28 min expected

points 6.5 → 8 actual

Sophie Cunningham · 25 min expected

points 7.5 → 13 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Billings (17 expected minutes) · Hull (13 min) · +4 more

Toronto Tempoplaying IND

SKiki Rice · 29 min expected

points + assists 17.5 → 16 actual

SLaura Juskaite · 29 min expected

points + rebounds 14.5 → 8 actual

SBrittney Sykes · 20 min expected

assists 2.5 → 5 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Mabrey (31 expected minutes) · Harrison (28 min) · +5 more

What could go wrong

updated 04:51 UTC

Who is out

Allemand · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Wed 21:15 UTC) · 25, 23 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Out Conde · earlier listed as may not play (changed Thu 18:15 UTC) · 14, 22 and 20 min in the last 3 games

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 00:00 UTC) · 17, 29 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Key · did not play last game

Green · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 00:00 UTC) · 21, 10 and 4 min in the last 3 games

Hall · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 14, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

VanSlooten · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 10, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Russell · did not play last game

Onyiah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 12 and 1 min in the last 2 games

Boston · likely to play · right lower leg · IND

Sykes · likely to play · left foot · TOR

Clark · likely to play · back · IND

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Russell, Johnson, Key, Bankole) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Boston: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 23.0 in the last 5 games, about 9.0 more than usual

Timpson: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 19.9 in the last 5 games, about 8.1 more than usual

Cunningham: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 17.2 in the last 5 games, about 7.8 more than usual

Sykes: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 25.4 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 11 of the 56 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Allemand out (Wed 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Conde out (Thu 18:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Fri 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Key out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Green out (Fri 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hall out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: VanSlooten out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Russell out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Onyiah out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 4 of 8 picks won4 won, 4 lost · −0.75 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 1.3% higher than the last before the start · 14 lines checked, 6 scored but not picked · checked Thu 23:52 UTC

Caitlin Clark · assists 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 33.3 min (34 expected)

Pick: Under 10.5 at 1.72 → Won +0.72 per 1 staked

Makayla Timpson · points 6.5 → 8 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.2 min (28 expected)

Pick: Over 6.5 at 1.79 → Won +0.79 per 1 staked

Kelsey Mitchell · points 24.5 → 29 · 4.5 above the line · played 24.4 min (34 expected)

Pick: Over 24.5 at 1.79 → Won +0.79 per 1 staked

5 other players with a posted line

Brittney Sykes · assists 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 21.5 min (20 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.82

Sophie Cunningham · points 7.5 → 13 · 5.5 above the line · played 27.6 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.76

Laura Juskaite · points + rebounds 14.5 → 8 · 6.5 below the line · played 19.7 min (29 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.79

Kiki Rice · points + assists 17.5 → 16 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.9 min (29 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Aliyah Boston · points 16.5 → 16 · 0.5 below the line · played 26.8 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs IND · last 3 games · IND leads · TOR record 0–3 · average score 90.3–105.7 · TOR has lost by 15.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

18 Sep · IND 103 at TOR 85TOR lost

18 Aug · IND 101 at TOR 95TOR lost

16 Jun · TOR 91 at IND 113TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.4 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.0% of shots · 33.7% from three-point range · 12.7 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.4 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.4 vs average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.0+7.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 10, expected total 192.5 (Tue 02:38 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 10, expected total 189.5 (Tue 21:31 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 11

Marina Mabrey · U 4.5 assists−106value_edge_pct +0.57 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Aneesah Morrow · U 11.5 points−103value_edge_pct −0.78 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Kiki Rice · U 4.5 assists+122value_edge_pct −1.54 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Makayla Timpson · O 6.5 points−127value_edge_pct −2.73 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Aneesah Morrow · U 7.5 rebounds−125value_edge_pct −2.78 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Aneesah Morrow · U 12.5 points−125value_edge_pct −3.47 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Makayla Timpson · U 6.5 rebounds−130value_edge_pct −3.81 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12

Caitlin Clark · U 10.5 assists−138value_edge_pct −4.16 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 16

Aneesah Morrow · U 10.5 points−104value_edge_pct −4.27 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 18

Aneesah Morrow · U 6.5 rebounds+108value_edge_pct −4.66 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 19

Kelsey Mitchell · O 24.5 points−126value_edge_pct −4.81 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 22

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 14

Aneesah Morrow Under 12.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −125 → close −133 · CLV +1.5¢ · bet_clv:330411 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 14 · 28.7 min · startedMorrow's efficient 6-11 shooting (54.5% FG) on 29 minutes of play pushed her just over the 12.5-point line despite modest usage, as her interior scoring and volume rebounding role kept her productive enough to reach 14 points.

Makayla Timpson Under 6.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −130 → close −125 · CLV −1.0¢ · bet_clv:330415 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.4% · bad_price · actual 7 · 32.2 min · startedTimpson exceeded the 6.5 rebound line by one despite minimal offensive involvement (7% usage), benefiting from 32 minutes of floor time and efficient interior presence that generated 7 boards on just 4 shot attempts.

Kiki Rice Under 4.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +122 → close +104 · CLV +4.0¢ · bet_clv:330405 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 6 · 29.9 min · startedRice exceeded the under by distributing 6 assists in 30 minutes despite shooting just 4-of-12 from the field, relying on playmaking rather than scoring to impact the game. Her 19% usage rate kept her efficient as a facilitator, allowing her to orchestrate offense without needing to score.

Kiki Rice Under 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −153 → close −166 · CLV +1.9¢ · bet_clv:330406 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 6 · 29.9 min · startedRice just barely cleared the line with 6 assists in 30 minutes despite inefficient shooting (4-12 FG, 39% TS), as her ball-handling responsibilities kept her in a playmaking role even when her own offense stalled.

Kiki Rice Under 5.5 REBWIN +0.63ubet −159 → close −207 · CLV +6.0¢ · bet_clv:330407 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.2% · actual 3 · 29.9 min · startedRice grabbed only 3 boards in 30 minutes despite solid usage, unable to crash the glass effectively as a perimeter-oriented player in a game where rebounding opportunities were limited. The under cashed comfortably as she stayed true to her role as a facilitator (6 ast) rather than a rebounder.

Kelsey Mitchell Over 24.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −126 → close −126 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:333644 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.1% · actual 29 · 24.4 min · startedMitchell's elite 68.8% FG and 66.7% 3PT shooting efficiency, combined with 34% usage rate and 24 minutes, generated the 29 points needed to clear the 24.5 line. Her 84% true shooting percentage was the key driver—she simply couldn't miss tonight.

Aneesah Morrow Under 11.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −103 → close −104 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:330410 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 14 · 28.7 min · startedMorrow exceeded the 11.5 total on efficient inside scoring, going 5-for-8 on two-pointers while playing a full 29 minutes and dominating the glass with 16 rebounds. Her 61% true shooting and high-volume rebounding opportunities in a competitive game kept her scoring punch above the betting line despite modest overall usage.

Aneesah Morrow Under 10.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −104 → close −104 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:330409 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.8% · unexplained · actual 14 · 28.7 min · startedMorrow exceeded the 10.5-point line by converting 6 of 11 field-goal attempts (54.5%) and staying on the floor for 29 minutes despite modest usage, generating efficient scoring that pushed her past the threshold. Her 16-rebound night kept her engaged in the game flow and ensured sufficient shot opportunities to clear the under.

Marina Mabrey Under 4.5 ASTWIN +0.94ubet −106 → close −117 · CLV +2.5¢ · bet_clv:330408 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.8% · actual 3 · 28.5 min · startedMabrey's scoring-heavy role (34% usage, 22 pts) limited her playmaking opportunities, as she averaged one assist per 9.3 minutes played rather than operating as a primary facilitator. Her three turnovers further constrained her ability to generate additional assists from her 28 minutes on the court.

Caitlin Clark Under 10.5 ASTWIN +0.72ubet −138 → close −161 · CLV +3.7¢ · bet_clv:330404 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.6% · actual 7 · 33.3 min · startedClark's playmaking was throttled by a season-high 7 turnovers and limited floor time with three fouls, preventing her from reaching double-digit dimes despite 33 minutes of heavy offensive usage. The turnover burden—tied to aggressive offensive load and foul trouble—disrupted rhythm and reduced her ability to set up teammates at her usual rate.

Aneesah Morrow Under 7.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −125 → close −127 · CLV +0.4¢ · bet_clv:330413 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 16 · 28.7 min · startedMorrow doubled the over/under with 16 rebounds in 29 minutes, dominating the glass with a massive rebounding effort that far exceeded her modest 16% usage rate. Her 16 boards came despite modest scoring (14 points on solid 55% shooting), indicating she was deployed primarily as a rebounder and pick-and-roll finisher rather than a high-volume offensive option.

Makayla Timpson Over 6.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −132 · CLV +0.9¢ · bet_clv:330414 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.4% · actual 8 · 32.2 min · startedTimpson's perfect 4-for-4 shooting from the field made the difference, converting all her attempts in 32 minutes of playing time to easily clear the 6.5-point line.

Aneesah Morrow Under 6.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +108 → close +108 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:330412 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.8% · unexplained · actual 16 · 28.7 min · startedMorrow exploded on the boards with 16 rebounds in 29 minutes, more than double the 6.5-rebound line, fueled by her aggressive activity and the team's pace in a competitive game. Her rebounding production dramatically outpaced her modest 16% usage rate, indicating she was crashing the glass consistently rather than playing a ball-dominant role.

Brittney Sykes Over 9.5 PTSWIN +0.64ubet −156 · bet_clv:333649 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.2% · actual 15 · 21.5 min · started

Data fetches · 46

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 186 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 195 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 197 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 201 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 204 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 206 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 210 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 553 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 660 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 125 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1049 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 51 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pa)ok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 125 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pr)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 130 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 208 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1395 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 867 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 869 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1106 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1121 ms

odds player timeline (pr)ok 200 · 770 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1212 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1225 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1295 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1295 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 962 ms

odds player timeline (pa)ok 200 · 980 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1053 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1069 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.