WNBA · Finalupdated 00:09 UTC

Los Angeles Sparks vs Connecticut Sun

at Connecticut Sun

LAS expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 170.5 points · odds to win: LAS 1.72, CON 2.10

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 21:31 UTC

LAS 77 – CON 85

Final · 3 of 4 picks won

4 picks checked: 3 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LAS = Los Angeles Sparks, CON = Connecticut Sun.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

D. Hamby · Over 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 2.18 · last price before start 2.00Won +1.18 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.18 · Our price was 4.1% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.15 by BetOnline.ag (Tue 05:43 UTC); latest 1.85 at BetOnline.ag (Tue 22:33 UTC). The 2.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

C. Leger-Walker · Under 9.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.88 · last price before start 1.88Won +0.88 per 1 staked

D. Hamby · Over 14.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.78 · last price before start 1.77Won +0.78 per 1 staked

A. Atkins · Over 2.5 assistsLostPosted at 1.73 · last price before start 1.71Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Los Angeles Sparksplaying CON

SRae Burrell · 34 min expected

points 17.5 → 19 actual

SDearica Hamby · 33 min expected

points 14.5 → 15 actual

SNneka Ogwumike · 32 min expected

points 15.5 → 18 actual

SAriel Atkins · 31 min expected

assists 2.5 → 2 actual

Erica Wheeler · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → did not play, so no result

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Park (18 expected minutes) · Morgan (17 min) · +6 more

Connecticut Sunplaying LAS

SDiamond Miller · 28 min expected

points 12.5 → 13 actual

SKennedy Burke · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 17 actual

SLeila Lacan · 28 min expected

points 11.5 → 7 actual

SCharlisse Leger-Walker · 25 min expected

points 9.5 → 7 actual

SOlivia Nelson-Ododa · 25 min expected

rebounds 8.5 → 11 actual

Brittney Griner · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → did not play, so no result

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Rivers (20 expected minutes) · Angloma (16 min) · +6 more

What could go wrong

updated 00:09 UTC

Who is out

Lith · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 20:45 UTC) · 28, 13 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Out Marshall · earlier listed as available (changed Fri 00:15 UTC) · 0, 8 and 10 min in the last 3 games

May not play Edwards · left ankle · CON

May not play Griner · left knee · CON

May not play Brink · ribs · LAS

May not play Wheeler · right ankle · LAS

May not play Makani · right ankle · LAS

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 3 players (Burke, Miller, Lacan) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Hamby: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 24.9 in the last 5 games, about 8.1 more than usual

Burrell: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 27.8 in the last 5 games, about 6.2 more than usual

Atkins: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 22.3 in the last 5 games, about 8.7 more than usual

Nelson-Ododa: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 19.1 in the last 5 games, about 5.9 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 13 of the 124 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Lith out (Wed 20:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Marshall out (Fri 00:15 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 3 of 4 picks won3 won, 1 lost · +1.84 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 1.2% higher than the last before the start · 9 lines checked, 5 scored but not picked · checked Thu 23:52 UTC

Charlisse Leger-Walker · points 9.5 → 7 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.6 min (25 expected)

Pick: Under 9.5 at 1.88 → Won +0.88 per 1 staked

Ariel Atkins · assists 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 26 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.73 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Dearica Hamby · points 14.5 → 15 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.9 min (33 expected)

Pick: Over 14.5 at 1.78 → Won +0.78 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

Kennedy Burke · points 8.5 → 17 · 8.5 above the line · played 26.4 min (28 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.85, Under —

Leila Lacan · points 11.5 → 7 · 4.5 below the line · played 28.5 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.64, Under 2.18

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · rebounds 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.3 min (25 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.96, Under —

Nneka Ogwumike · points 15.5 → 18 · 2.5 above the line · played 30.4 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.96

Rae Burrell · points 17.5 → 19 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.8 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.72

Diamond Miller · points 12.5 → 13 · 0.5 above the line · played 29.1 min (28 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 2.08, Under —

Erica Wheeler · points 8.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.96

Brittney Griner · points 11.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.72

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CON vs LAS · last 16 games · CON leads · CON record 12–4 · average score 83.6–75.8 · CON has won by 7.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Aug · CON 68 at LAS 77CON lost

18 Aug · LAS 77 at CON 85CON won

30 May · LAS 81 at CON 84CON won

What each defense gives up per game

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.3 vs average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LAS expected to win by 1.5, expected total 171.5 (Tue 05:43 UTC) and later LAS expected to win by 2.5, expected total 170.5 (Tue 21:31 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 5

Dearica Hamby · O 14.5 points−129value_edge_pct −3.33 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Ariel Atkins · O 2.5 assists−137value_edge_pct −3.95 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 14

Dearica Hamby · O 2.5 assists+118value_edge_pct −4.06 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15

Charlisse Leger-Walker · U 9.5 points−113value_edge_pct −4.72 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 20

Charlisse Leger-Walker · U 8.5 points−104value_edge_pct −4.78 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 21

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 9

Ariel Atkins Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −137 → close −140 · CLV +0.5¢ · bet_clv:329617 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 26.0 min · startedAtkins finished at exactly 2 assists, one short of the over, despite 26 minutes of floor time; her 13% usage rate kept her out of the primary playmaking flow for the team.

Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 8.5 PTSWIN +0.96ubet −104 → close −104 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:332852 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.5% · actual 7 · 30.6 min · startedLeger-Walker's modest 2-4 shooting (50% FG) and zero three-pointers limited her scoring despite 31 minutes of playing time, keeping her well below the 8.5-point threshold. Her 10% usage rate reflected limited offensive opportunities in the game flow, preventing her from reaching double digits even with solid efficiency.

Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.88ubet −113 → close −113 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:329619 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.5% · actual 7 · 30.6 min · startedLeger-Walker stayed well below the line despite solid efficiency (66% TS), as her 10% usage rate and 2-4 field-goal attempts limited scoring opportunities despite 31 minutes played. She prioritized playmaking (6 assists) over shot-taking, keeping her well short of 9.5 points.

Dearica Hamby Over 2.5 ASTWIN +1.18ubet +118 → close +100 · CLV +4.1¢ · bet_clv:329622 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.0% · actual 3 · 27.9 min · startedHamby's 33% usage rate and 28 minutes of run gave her enough offensive touches to generate the third assist, despite a quiet night distributing the ball. She hit the over by a single dime on a night where her scoring load (15 points on 14 shots) kept her involved enough to reach the 2.5 threshold.

Rae Burrell Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.56ubet −180 → close −180 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:329621 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.8% · actual 6 · 29.8 min · startedBurrell's 30 minutes and 26% usage rate provided ample opportunity to rack up dimes, and she delivered 6 assists while maintaining efficient scoring (7-12 FG) to stay involved in the offense. The over-2.5 line was vulnerable given her playmaking role and high floor for minutes.

Dearica Hamby Over 14.5 PTSWIN +0.78ubet −129 → close −130 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:329623 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.5% · actual 15 · 27.9 min · startedHamby squeaked over with 15 points on modest 45% true shooting, leaning heavily on free throws (5-6) to compensate for a cold 5-14 from the field. She stayed on the floor for 28 minutes with elevated 33% usage, enough volume to push past 14.5 despite the inefficient shooting night.

Leila Lacan Under 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −157 → close −157 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:329618 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · unexplained · actual 10 · 28.5 min · startedLacan nearly doubled the projection with 10 assists in 28 minutes, running the offense efficiently despite shooting just 3-9 and posting a quiet 17% usage rate—her playmaking volume far outpaced her scoring opportunities. The under missed because she prioritized ball movement and facilitation over scoring, a role allocation that wasn't reflected in the 5.5 assist line.

Diamond Miller Under 4.5 REBWIN +0.60ubet −167 · bet_clv:329616 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.7% · actual 3 · 29.1 min · startedMiller came off the bench with 29 minutes and grabbed just 3 rebounds despite efficient scoring (6-11 FG), as limited playing time and a 18% usage rate prevented her from accumulating boards at the rate implied by the 4.5 line. Her four fouls also likely restricted her interior activity down the stretch.

Kennedy Burke Under 4.5 REBWIN +0.64ubet −156 · bet_clv:329620 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.2% · actual 4 · 26.4 min · startedBurke stayed efficient on offense (7-12 FG, 71% TS) but logged just 26 minutes, limiting her rebound opportunities in a game that didn't require heavy usage from her (23% usage rate). She grabbed exactly 4 boards—matching her season tendency as a perimeter-first player—to cash the under.

Data fetches · 51

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 45 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 46 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 60 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 63 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 72 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 177 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 138 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 218 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 221 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 210 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 212 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 217 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

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sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 254 ms

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sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 280 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 287 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 518 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 311 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 320 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 532 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 575 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 602 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 668 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 627 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 671 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1041 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 911 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 921 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 925 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1068 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1069 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.