WNBA · Finalupdated 15:21 UTC

Atlanta Dream vs Los Angeles Sparks

at Los Angeles Sparks

ATL expected to win by about 9 · both teams together expected to score about 180.5 points · odds to win: ATL 1.24, LAS 4.28

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 00:32 UTC

ATL 124 – LAS 88

Final · 2 of 4 picks won

4 picks checked: 2 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ATL = Atlanta Dream, LAS = Los Angeles Sparks.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

D. Hamby · Over 2.5 assistsLostPosted at 2.41 · last price before start 2.22Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.41 · Our price was 3.6% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.30 by BetOnline.ag (Wed 21:23 UTC); latest 2.23 at BetRivers (Fri 01:53 UTC). The 2.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

E. Wheeler · Over 4.5 assistsLostPosted at 1.94 · last price before start 1.81Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

C. Brink · Over 7.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.00 · last price before start 1.78Won +1.00 per 1 staked

C. Brink · Over 4.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.94 · last price before start 1.96Won +0.94 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Atlanta Dreamplaying LAS

SAllisha Gray · 35 min expected

points 19.5 → 13 actual

SRhyne Howard · 35 min expected

points 18.5 → 26 actual

SAngel Reese · 34 min expected

points 16.5 → 20 actual

SJordin Canada · 32 min expected

points 11.5 → 9 actual

SNaz Hillmon · 31 min expected

points 9.5 → 14 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Borlase (16 expected minutes) · Okot (10 min) · +2 more

Los Angeles Sparksplaying ATL

SRae Burrell · 32 min expected

points 15.5 → 12 actual

SDearica Hamby · 31 min expected

assists 2.5 → 2 actual

SNneka Ogwumike · 31 min expected

points 15.5 → 11 actual

SAriel Atkins · 30 min expected

points 8.5 → 9 actual

SErica Wheeler · 27 min expected

assists 4.5 → 0 actual

Cameron Brink · 18 min expected

points 7.5 → 14 actual

Monique Akoa Makani · 10 min expected

points 6.5 → 3 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Gray (7 expected minutes) · Park (7 min) · Morgan (7 min)

What could go wrong

updated 15:21 UTC

Who is out

Pili · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 06:00 UTC) · 16, 6 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Out Jones · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 5, 20 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Sherrod · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 00:00 UTC) · 3, 8 and 18 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

6 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Howard, Gray, Park, Gray, Morgan) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Reese: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 27.4 in the last 5 games, about 6.6 more than usual

Hillmon: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 24.4 in the last 5 games, about 6.6 more than usual

Hamby: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 24.9 in the last 5 games, about 6.1 more than usual

Atkins: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 22.3 in the last 5 games, about 7.7 more than usual

Wheeler: expected to play 27 minutes, averaged 17.9 in the last 5 games, about 9.1 more than usual

Makani: expected to play 10 minutes, averaged 21.4 in the last 5 games, about 11.4 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 21 of the 160 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Pili out (Sun 06:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sherrod out (Fri 00:00 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 4 picks won2 won, 2 lost · −0.06 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 3.2% higher than the last before the start · 11 lines checked, 7 scored but not picked · checked Sun 02:52 UTC

Erica Wheeler · assists 4.5 → 0 · 4.5 below the line · played 16.9 min (27 expected)

Pick: Over 4.5 at 1.94 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Cameron Brink · points 7.5 → 14 · 6.5 above the line · played 27.2 min (18 expected)

Pick: Over 7.5 at 2.00 → Won +1.00 per 1 staked

Dearica Hamby · assists 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 23.7 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 2.41 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

9 other players with a posted line

Monique Akoa Makani · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 15.2 min (10 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.65, Under 2.16

Naz Hillmon · points 9.5 → 14 · 4.5 above the line · played 25.7 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.76

Rhyne Howard · points 18.5 → 26 · 7.5 above the line · played 25.2 min (35 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Allisha Gray · points 19.5 → 13 · 6.5 below the line · played 22.7 min (35 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Nneka Ogwumike · points 15.5 → 11 · 4.5 below the line · played 24.7 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.82

Rae Burrell · points 15.5 → 12 · 3.5 below the line · played 24.9 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Jordin Canada · points 11.5 → 9 · 2.5 below the line · played 26.7 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Angel Reese · points 16.5 → 20 · 3.5 above the line · played 30.5 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Ariel Atkins · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 15.9 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LAS vs ATL · last 16 games · ATL leads · LAS record 3–13 · average score 80.4–89.8 · LAS has lost by 9.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Aug · ATL 78 at LAS 71LAS lost

20 Aug · ATL 124 at LAS 88LAS lost

13 Jul · LAS 92 at ATL 101LAS lost

5 Sep · LAS 85 at ATL 104LAS lost

3 Sep · LAS 75 at ATL 86LAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up84.5 points · 31.0 rebounds · 19.2 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.9% of shots · 34.8% from three-point range · 15.4 opponent turnovers

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 84.5 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−2.6 vs average

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 8.5, expected total 181.5 (Thu 03:03 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 9, expected total 180.5 (Fri 00:32 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 4

Erica Wheeler · O 4.5 assists−106value_edge_pct +1.14 · kelly 0.30u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Dearica Hamby · O 2.5 assists+141value_edge_pct −2.01 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Cameron Brink · O 7.5 points+100value_edge_pct −2.28 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Cameron Brink · O 4.5 rebounds−106value_edge_pct −3.49 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 11

Ariel Atkins Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −148 → close −132 · CLV −2.8¢ · bet_clv:340337 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.6% · bad_price · actual 1 · 15.9 min · benchAtkins logged just 16 minutes with 24% usage, limiting her playmaking opportunities, and managed only 1 assist despite shooting efficiently (3-7 FG); the Wizards' blowout loss (-12 +/-) likely reduced her floor time and offensive touches in the second half.

Dearica Hamby Over 1.5 ASTWIN +0.45ubet −220 → close −220 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:340345 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.4% · actual 2 · 23.7 min · started

Dearica Hamby Over 13.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −155 → close −155 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:340344 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.2% · unexplained · actual 8 · 23.7 min · startedHamby's 3-7 shooting (43% FG) combined with zero 3-pointers attempted left her 5.5 points short despite playing 24 minutes, as her low 16% usage rate limited scoring opportunities in a lopsided game (−25 +/−).

Rae Burrell Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −156 → close −162 · CLV +0.9¢ · bet_clv:343220 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.8% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 24.9 min · startedBurrell fell one assist short despite decent volume, finishing with only 2 dimes across 25 minutes on 29% usage; her 5 turnovers limited playmaking opportunities and she struggled to create for others in a blowout loss (-23 +/-).

Naz Hillmon Under 5.5 REBWIN +0.61ubet −163 → close −163 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:340343 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.5% · actual 5 · 25.7 min · startedHillmon stayed at exactly 5 rebounds despite efficient scoring (6-9 FG, 74% TS) because her 26 minutes and 17% usage rate—lowest on the team—limited her opportunities on the glass in a blowout win (+38).

Dearica Hamby Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +141 → close +122 · CLV +3.6¢ · bet_clv:340346 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 40.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 23.7 min · startedHamby's playmaking was bottlenecked by limited offensive touches—her 16% usage rate and 24 minutes of action left insufficient opportunities to generate assists, and she finished with just 2 despite solid efficiency when she did get the ball.

Allisha Gray Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.56ubet −177 → close −192 · CLV +1.9¢ · bet_clv:340342 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.9% · actual 2 · 22.7 min · startedGray recorded only 2 assists despite 23 minutes and solid offensive volume (26% usage), reflecting limited ball-handling responsibility in the offense. The under cashed as she functioned primarily as a scorer rather than a facilitator, with just one turnover indicating minimal playmaking opportunities.

Cameron Brink Over 4.5 REBWIN +0.94ubet −106 → close −104 · CLV −0.5¢ · bet_clv:340339 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.7% · actual 7 · 27.2 min · startedBrink secured 7 rebounds in 27 minutes, exceeding the 4.5 line despite shooting just 33% from the field; her activity on the glass held steady even as her offensive efficiency lagged.

Erica Wheeler Over 4.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −106 → close −123 · CLV +3.7¢ · bet_clv:340340 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 0 · 16.9 min · benchWheeler's assist prop was torpedoed by her minimal role—just 17 minutes and 12% usage—which left her with zero dimes despite efficient scoring (2-3 FG, 2-2 3PT). The blowout loss (-17 +/-) likely limited her playmaking opportunities and floor time.

Erica Wheeler Over 1.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −159 → close −157 · CLV −0.3¢ · bet_clv:340341 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.8% · bad_price · actual 0 · 16.9 min · benchWheeler's 17 minutes and 12% usage rate severely limited her rebounding opportunities, and she failed to secure any boards despite her efficient scoring (4-of-5 FG). The under-the-radar role left no path to 1.5+ rebounds even with her efficient shooting night.

Cameron Brink Over 7.5 PTSWIN +1.00ubet +100 → close −128 · CLV +6.1¢ · bet_clv:340338 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.9% · actual 14 · 27.2 min · startedBrink's 14 points easily cleared the 7.5-point line as she capitalized at the free-throw line, going 5-for-6, and added three 3-pointers in 27 minutes of action. Her 23% usage rate and moderate shot volume (9 FG attempts) still yielded 60% true shooting efficiency, enough to comfortably eclipse the over.

Data fetches · 54

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 17 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 97 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 102 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 105 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 109 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 111 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 133 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 100 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 380 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 559 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 613 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 614 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 683 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1093 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 4664 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 264 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 310 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 316 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 323 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 329 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 353 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 359 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 361 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 375 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 381 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1108 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1210 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1218 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1243 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1486 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1643 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1645 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1644 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.